Wikistrat post @ CNN-GPS: The consequences of France shifting left
Friday, April 20, 2012 at 12:22PM Editor’s Note: The following piece, exclusive to GPS, comes from Wikistrat, the world's first massively multiplayer online consultancy. It leverages a global network of subject-matter experts via a crowd-sourcing methodology to provide unique insights.
The countdown has begun for France’s first-round presidential election on Sunday, and while socialist challenger François Hollande is expected to beat center-right incumbent Nicolas Sarkozy, there’s a decent chance that a second run-off election will be required for Hollande to crack the 50 percent of the vote mark. Either way, we’re likely on the verge of a major political shift for one of Europe’s pillars – right after the wobbly Eurozone had hoped to close the door on its threatened dissolution.
We know what you’re thinking: socialists, lots of new government spending, the end of the “Merkozy” tight bond between France and Germany!
So what are we to make of this looming quake? How high will it register on the political Richter scale? Wikistrat asked its global community of experts to ponder this, and here are the 8 points they chose to highlight.
Read the entire post at CNN's GPS blog.
Reader Comments (3)
Some perceptive stuff in there. A substantial return to traditional French Socialist politics ain't gonna play very well in Berlin. The risk to European Union is significant. And if France pulls out of NATO while pissing off Germany, does that lend credence to NATO, with its US/UK/GE axis, as the alternative to the EU?
(p.s. the CAPTA was somehow appropriate: "payment mini sin")
The Left is not dead. Not here and not in Europe. The conflict between left and right is starting to resemble the battles of the 1930's which led to WWII. I expect one of these smaller socialist countries to collapse. Greece might be the best candidate. I am talking about total collapse. It's not out of the question. John Kass, a writer for the Chicago Tribune, just came back from Greece. He visited his father's village and interviewed numerous people in other cities. He was devastated by what he saw and heard.
Did I hear someone say "Domino Theory?"
News just came in on BBC News--Hollande and Sarkozy go on to a run-off, the former in the lead. Supposedly, the latter is expected to seek the support of LePen's far-righters to make up the balance.
Not going to be pretty, regardless of who wins.