Iran's oil exports not choked, but redirected eastward
Our sanctions are described as "choking" Iran's exports. But what I see is an export level dropping in concert with production, where the sanctions may be having significant impact, but probably not as much as claimed.
Clearly, what the sanctions etc. has done is redirect Iranian oil exports from Europe & Japan to "rising" Asia. Eventually, the investment profile will change to reflect that, meaning the energy investments Iran attracts will likewise be shifted from West to East. It just takes longer.
Naturally, the Obama administration wants to shut down that possibility as well, but I suspect it'll be far less successful simply because rising Asia needs oil and gas from EVERYBODY, and can't afford our WMD qualms.
And frankly, why should they when we shield our best-boy in the region on the same subject?
Scary, I know, but eventually Iran's nukes gets Israel the strategic security it needs. Frightening journey, yes, but I've yet to see an alternative pathway of any serious plausibility.
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