The worm finally starts to turn on Iran
Thursday, July 17, 2008 at 6:46AM ARTICLE: "Iran and U.S. Signaling Chance of Deal," by Glenn Kessler, Washington Post, 17 July 2008, p. A16.
The key bits signal the big change on our part:
In recent weeks, the White House already has approved a sweetened package of incentives to Iran that included a pledge to refrain from the use of force, supported a European gambit to begin preliminary talks with Iran and sent clear signals to Israel not to consider acting against Iran on its own.
In 2006, the initial package of incentives offered by the six countries included only a vague reference to Iran's security concerns because the Bush administration insisted that section of the offer be largely gutted. The new package, by contrast, offers to negotiate extensive security commitments, including supporting Iran in "playing an important and constructive role in international affairs."
Further sign:
ARTICLE: "US plans to station diplomats in Iran for first time since 1979: Washington move signals thaw in relations," by Ewen MacAskill, The Guardian, 17 July 2008.
Key bit:
Bush has taken a hard line with Iran throughout the last seven years but, in the dying days of his administration, it is believed he is keen to have a positive legacy that he can point to.
The return of US diplomats to Iran is dependent on agreement by Tehran. But President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad indicated earlier this week that he was not against the opening of a US mission. Iran would consider favourably any request aimed at boosting relations between the two countries, he said ...
There has been an intense debate within the Bush administration over Iran, with the vice-president, Dick Cheney, in favour of a military strike against Iranian nuclear plants and the state department in favour of diplomacy.
The state department has been pressing the White House for the last two years to re-establish diplomatic relations with Tehran by setting up an interest section.
Obviously, this is all good news from my perspective. I've been waiting close to four years on this one.
It'll be interesting to see if Bush can get something done before the end of his term or whether the Iranians will simply play out the string, watching the election. Either way, it's a good start and better than subcontracting the non-kinetics to the Europeans and the kinetics to Israel on an issue of such importance to us.
In the end, though, we have to recognize this emerging thaw (always easily reversed) for what it is: Bush-Cheney have finally come to recognize the cost of the tie-down in Iraq and Afghanistan and now have basically signaled their desire to sue for peace everywhere else.
We can claim the sanctions bit, but for every Total that pulls out of Iran, there's an Eastern oil company that would gladly step in, so all that was buying was a shift of Iran's connections eastward.
I still think, much like with North Korea, that those who hope such a thaw ends the nuclear question will end up being disappointed. Much like with Pyongyang, I think we'll face the reality of finessing it rather than getting any clear outcome without any nuclear capacity.
But who knows how far Bush may be willing to deal in the final months?
Reader Comments (2)
It is also possible that the Iranians are indeed caving. Mr. Bush doesn't blink. He has never given any indication that he is concerned about "legacy".
Perhaps the IAF exercises, striking Syria with impunity and the vaulted Russian defenses being caught totally unawares, the situation in Iraq and maybe some subtle hints that waiting for the elections may be stretching patience a little thin has had a sobering effect.
If so, an elaborate kabuki dance that saves maximum face for the Iranians will ensue. The old poker player will walk away with all the chips and give Khameni the bragging rights.
Dear God, I hope I'm right.