Negotiations begin at the scary part
Friday, July 11, 2008 at 5:58AM ARTICLE: "Iran's Conflicting Signals to the West: Some Observers Suggest That Missile Tests Show a Readiness to Bargain," by Glenn Kessler, Washington Post, 11 July 2008, p. A10.
Remember: peace can only "break out" when war is ongoing or threatening, so no assumptions on the feasibility here just because Israel and Iran go through their exercises.
But I do think we're seeing posturing by Iran largely for the next president. I think Tehran is laying the groundwork for a Bush-to-Obama switch much like it did for Carter-to-Reagan: what is inconceivable with one becomes far more conceivable with the next.
Could Bush take advantage in the time left? Possibly, but not at an acceptable price, I suspect. The latest group-of-six offer spoke of "territorial integrity" and the possibility of "direct contact and dialogue," but--of course--Tehran wants regime integrity--not exactly the same thing but basically what Nixon and Kissinger gave to both Moscow and Beijing in their detente/opening efforts.
So, outside the war posturing/counterposturing, I expect Iranian signals to remain "oblique," as the administration currently describes them: suggesting the possibility but not really stepping into the actualization of any break-through.
And I really worry that such a slipping-into-the-Obama-administration track just isn't good enough for Israel.
Reader Comments (1)
The Iranians might simply be trying to get the price of oil back up. Before the missile launches the price of oil had been dropping and the stock market had been climbing in response. After the missile launches, the price of oil was testing new highs.
As noted in the article, the Iranian government is an opaque coalition of groups with widely different views. One thing that all of those groups have in common is that they all need the price of oil to be high in order to purchase domestic peace as well as new antiaircraft systems from Russia.
Over the last year I have noticed that every time the price of oil starts to drop somebody, usually Iran or Russia, will start rattling a saber.
This launch may have far more venal reasons than grand strategy behind it.