ARTICLE: "Iran's Conflicting Signals to the West: Some Observers Suggest That Missile Tests Show a Readiness to Bargain," by Glenn Kessler, Washington Post, 11 July 2008, p. A10.

Remember: peace can only "break out" when war is ongoing or threatening, so no assumptions on the feasibility here just because Israel and Iran go through their exercises.

But I do think we're seeing posturing by Iran largely for the next president. I think Tehran is laying the groundwork for a Bush-to-Obama switch much like it did for Carter-to-Reagan: what is inconceivable with one becomes far more conceivable with the next.

Could Bush take advantage in the time left? Possibly, but not at an acceptable price, I suspect. The latest group-of-six offer spoke of "territorial integrity" and the possibility of "direct contact and dialogue," but--of course--Tehran wants regime integrity--not exactly the same thing but basically what Nixon and Kissinger gave to both Moscow and Beijing in their detente/opening efforts.

So, outside the war posturing/counterposturing, I expect Iranian signals to remain "oblique," as the administration currently describes them: suggesting the possibility but not really stepping into the actualization of any break-through.

And I really worry that such a slipping-into-the-Obama-administration track just isn't good enough for Israel.