Predictable and good: Brazil the extra-regional military power

ARTICLE: "President of Brail Unveils Plan to Upgrade Military in Effort to Be Global Power," by Alexei Barrioneuvo, New York Times, 19 December 2008.

Lula is having his Alexander Hamilton moment: he wants rising Brazil to have a military commensurate with its global economic interests. Read Hamilton's 1791 "Report on Manufactures": he wanted a defense industry right from the start.

The problem with a nuke sub fleet, though (along with China's move toward a carrier) is that these are relics--by and large--of 20th-century naval power. They're simply copycatting our legacy force structure.

Not a bold step into the future in a technological sense (these guys aren't gearing up for Leviathan war and simply wouldn't survive that process politically as regimes). They want to create many-and-cheap SysAdmin forces to stabilize and pacify.

So the learning curve remains steep, even as the instincts here are dead-on.

But think about it for a second: what is the nuke sub scenario for Brazil that justifies a "fleet"? Maybe a couple two-three as a capability, but keep it real. These things are very expensive to operate.