While the oligarchs gently weep

ARTICLE: "Russia and the crisis: Kremlinomics; Why the Russian markets have fared worse than others," The Economist, 18 October 2008.

ARTICLE: "Empires Built on Debt Start to Crumble: Tycoons With Kremlin Ties Shoulder a Heavy Burden As Russian Markets Fall," by Andrew E. Kramer, New York Times, 18 October 2008.

ARTICLE: "Ruble's Fall Puts Russia On Defense Amid Crisis," by Alan Cullison and Gregory L. White, Wall Street Journal, 24 October 2008.

So much for Medvedev's dream to turn Moscow into a global financial center any time soon.

Russia has lost more value market as a percentage than other emerging economies, giving the lie to any notion that it is somehow insulated by its energy wealth—anything but.

So far, what the Kremlin has done well is to insulate the average person from any downturn. What has mostly been trimmed is the extravagant expectations that Putin's business-masquerading-as-a-government model will be able to export anything anywhere save oil and gas.

The Russian success story as of late was highly reliant on foreign capital—as in, magnificently leveraged. Now, the Kremlin must bail out all its oligarchic network, lest they turn on it.

Never confuse a bull market with strategic genius. Rory MacFarquhar, a sharp observer on Russia at Goldman Sachs, says "This could be a game changer for a lot of very, very large players. The ground is shifting beneath them.

Estimates on top-25 oligarchs' wealth now peg them collectively at $140B, meaning they've lost five times what Buffett is worth in the past few months—or $230B!

So with the Russian market 70% off its peak, Moscow's mountain of reserves shrinks daily, even as Moscow scrambles to take its ruble profits and turn them into dollars and Euros—quick! The hardest hit tycoons tend to be the ones closest to Putin.

But sure, call it a post-American world if you must.

Comments

[Janus]

Hmm, is there a Russian word for schadenfreude?