Signal received, Azerbaijan thinks ahead

INTERNATIONAL: "A Northern Neighbor Growls, and Azerbaijan Reassesses Its Options," by Sabrina Tavernise, New York Times, 23 October 2008.

The dance gets trickier for Baku, but not really any different: courting the West but not in any formal way that will bring Moscow's displeasure.

So yeah, given few to no alternatives, Azerbaijan takes up Gazprom's offer to buy its natural gas and pipe it westward, possibly killing the planned Nabucco pipeline.

As one Azeri political commentator in Baku put it realistically: "You can't have a foreign policy that goes against your geography. We have to get along with the Russians and the Iranians."

So Baku also accepts Moscow's offer to mediate on Nagorno-Karabakh, and we see the enduring political realities of the so-called near abroad.

Comments

[John B]

Russia is desparate to find sources in the Caspian and Central Asia to fill its competing South Stream pipeline project to service Southeast Europe... Not enough gas out there for two pipes. But with falling oil prices the Russians may not have the cash to float the project alone.

You also can't have an energy policy that goes against economics- Russia's wheelings and dealings with other Central Asian countries over gas prices and resale are reason enough for Azerbaijan to find its own export routes.

Unless the EU gets on the stick and helps get Nabucco rolling, I agree it will be dead. That is bad for Europe and worse for Turkey and Central Asia and any effort at European integration.

[Michael]

*shrug* Until they can mend (or feel comfortable doing without) fences between themselves, the Armenians and the Georgians, anyway.