Very DeSoto story on African mortgage industry emerging

ARTICLE: "In Africa, Mortgages Boost An Emerging Middle Class: Zambian Experiment, With U.S. Help, Aims To Create a New Suburb," by Michael M. Phillips, Wall Street Journal, 17 July 2009, p. A1.

Everyone knows what it's like to do home remodeling: the nightmare of having it drag on forever and how your budget often determines the speed.

Well, imagine trying to build a house from scratch like that, because that's what it's like in Africa as a rule.

Herrick Mpuku has spent a decade building his family a house, and it's still not done. There are no kitchen cabinets, and the concrete-block walls haven't been plastered smooth. But now the 45-year-old economist is having a new home built--one he expect to go from groundbreaking to the final coat of paint within six months.

The difference? Mr. Mpuku built his first house the traditional African way: in excruciatingly slow stages, he bought the land, had the foundation laid, erected a few feet of wall and finally got a roof installed, whenever he had something left over from his paycheck. This time, he's getting a mortgage.

In between the rich and very poor are Africa's small middle class, which is only now getting access to the sorts of credit we all take for granted, like a mortgage.

This guy is buying into a subdivision that does what subdivisions do here regularly: package the whole damn thing up for a single price and bundle that cost into a home mortgage.

The World Bank says sub-Saharan Africa's middle class could grow from 13 million (2000) to as much as 43 million by 2030. Most are in South Africa for now, but pockets grow in Zambia, Nigeria, Kenya and Ghana. Just enough appear in concentration to attract outside investors from aging Core states that want higher returns.

Sooner than most think, that is what will bring China to Africa for more than just oil. As China ages, they will also need places to find higher returns.

The market is there. It's simply underserved.

Tope Lawani, Nigerian-born co-founder of the private investment firm Helios Investment Partners, says investors are starting to realize that the continent doesn't lack demand for middle-class goods and services, from air travel and electric power to hotel rooms and financial services. What's missing, he says, is companies willing to do business in Africa and create a competitive market to fulfill pent-up middle-class aspirations.

That's why perceptions matter so much: if you're Chinese and come into these environments, the place looks like home. If you're Western, it all looks too hard to manage.