Demographics is destiny - for Israel, too

I wrote this in response to an email from a supporter of Israel who believes I'm getting the story all wrong on Israel and Carter's book and who's trying to correct my perceived mistaken analysis by sending me critiques of Carter's book.

My reply indicates that I'm taking a rather orthogonal approach to the usual Israeli-Arab conflict description, by focusing on Israel's problem of trying to maintain the racial identity of its state in a globalizing world. My reply:

The point I make in supporting Carter's argument (versus the book in whole) is that defining a nation by race and preserving that character through systematic discrimination is not viable in a globalizing world.

Won't work for anybody (and plenty of other nationalities feeling the same fear as Jews on this subject--all over the planet). The only reason why it matters more with Israel is the overlapping claims to the territory, which makes the argument for a race-majority state harder to sell.

Plus, the endemic conflict with the squatters (Palestinians) who simply won't give up, especially after winning partial control over Gaza and the West Bank. Otherwise, this story is no more unique or fantastic than the plights of Latvians, or countless indigenous nationalities getting squeezed the world over.

It all boils down to this question: can anybody become a full citizen of your state? Or are they restricted by reasons of race and/or religion?

If any state's answer rationalizes the second choice, then there is a fundamental falsehood associated with the state's definition of liberty.

This isn't an argument won by rehashing the original rationale for the creation of Israel. That story also isn't particularly unique in its long tale of immense suffering--just the concentrated scale of murdering associated with it (and the amazing documentation of it). Look the world over, and you will find similarly sad tales of targeted ethnic cleansing leading to lengthy and often successful efforts at national self-determination (for example, does any nationality deserve its own nation right now more than the Kurds?).

My argument is about what Israel can or cannot survive as--state-wise--in a future, increasingly globalized world. France can't survive or thrive in that future as just white French, unless it discriminates consistently to maintain that end. If it does that, the Paris riots are only the beginning and soon enough France will stop resembling a democracy as we define it. Israel's problem is not different from that, nor is Japan's, with it's rapidly aging demographics, nor Ireland's, which for the first time in its modern history is grappling with non-European immigrants.

Eventually France will have a north African-descent leader. Eventually Ireland will have a non-Irish one. Eventually Japan will have a non-Japanese one (after all, they gave Peru one). Soon enough America will have a Hispanic one.

And eventually Israel must have an Arab one, or it must chose to systematically prevent that pathway from emerging.

In all of these countries and in every country, many will argue that losing that original racial-religious core dominancy will "ruin" the country, because, in all such cases, the country began precisely to protect that identity.

Israel argues a special status for its case. I think that argument holds up well in the 20th century, but will get lost in the shuffle of the plethora of similar claims arising--the world over--in the 21st.

So, again, comparing to the US or any state with a dominant race doesn't work. What matters is how that state seeks to preserve that dominance and why. European-descent whites will be in the collective minority is the US within my lifetime--unless we make laws to prevent it. But I don't want to live in a US that is forced down the path of such discrimination, so I accept that America will be increasingly Latinized, no matter how much the Anglo-Protestants don't like that.

Israel faces a similar demographic squeeze with non-Jews, which will inevitably outnumber Jews in Israel within our lifetimes, unless Israel takes extraordinary steps to prevent that. I think Israel is taking and will continue to take those steps (much as many Israelis yearn for a post-Zionist identity to emerge, believing peace is impossible without it--something I agree with), and in that path lose much of its democracy and thus support from the United States.

That's my call, or my analysis. Offering it doesn't mark me one way or the other regarding Jews or Israel. It means that's simply the way I see it. Carter's book, with its many flaws, does force that conversation and those realizations more out into the open, and that's a good thing for everyone--including Israel.

Demgraphics is destiny. Pretending otherwise in inadvisable.

Thanks for the note.

Comments

[Hans Suter]

Hot topic, cool answer.

[Dick Stanley]

You're welcome to your view, however shortsighted it may be. But Jews are not a race, if by that word you mean they are all one color, or all have hook noses, or whatever. Anyone can become a Jew and there are black, brown and yellow as well as white ones--in Israel and the US and elsewhere. Moreover, Israel is not a religious state, but a very secular one, with many of its Jewish citizens not even being observant, much to the despair of the Orthodox. I think you need to get your terms and facts straight before you start pontificating. As for Carter, he is an ass as well as a religious bigot.

[Nadine Carroll]

It is more than a little obtuse to be making all these prescriptions for Israel's improvements without noticing that Israel has neighbors - neighbors who do NOT subscribe to your notion of how 21st century globalized states should behave, neighbors whose track record of discrimination by race and religion outpaces Israel's by many orders of magnitude, and whose intentions to Israel are openly, one might say, proudly, genocidal.

Yet they are spared the lectures. Only Israel must be the poster child for moral improvements in the Middle East.

Why don't you just tell the Israelis to go shoot themselves right now?

[stuart abrams]

Great analysis. I'd like to see some comments from Israelis, as I think they often have a better perspective on their situation that their American supporters do. I analogize the situation to Ireland. An Israel/Palestine 2-state solution will be an unstable stopgap, much like the partition of Ireland. However, the Irish conflict became irrelevant when Ireland prospered after being integrated into the European, and therefore the global, capitalist system. Same thing in the Middle East. Open up Iran and the connection between Iran and Israel -- the Middle East's gateway to Western commerce -- become the logical next step. When the Middle East is integrated into the global economy, the Israel-Palestine conflict will be no more relevant than the conflict between Irish Catholics and Protestants. If only we had a President with the brains, and the guts, to get on a plane to Tehran.

[Dan in B-more, hon.]

I'll note that while Israel does not have an Arab leader, its embattled president is an Iranian Jew.

I'll also note that Palestinians have a deceptively large amount of rights in the State of Israel -- even the right to protest government action, for free, to the Supreme Court of Israel. Dozens of cases have been filed regarding the border fence, and some have been adjudicated disfavorably to the government's plans, forcing the fence to be moved.

I agree that Israel has an ethnic/religious identity conundrum, but you seem to view the Israeli mainstream as attempting to preserve a Western/religious-oriented Zionism. That may be the feeling of some in power in Israel, but that's not the feeling on the ground and in the streets.

To the contrary, my feeling is that traditional Zionism is naturally fading due to its inherent definitional problems. Is an Iranian Jew a Jew? What about a convert to Judaism? What about a native-born Israeli who is atheistic or chooses another religion?

My ideal world? A one-state solution, a recognition of the multi-ethnic and multi-religious claims to the land, formal preservation of the rights of ethnic and religious minorities (Arabs now, Jews later), formal annexation of the West Bank, Gaza, and Golan, and an immigration policy based around the right of return for both Jews and Palestinians.

That would require some serious truth and reconciliation, but it would put Israel on lockdown as a strong and fair Mid-East democracy, something it cannot claim, with any moral authority, at present.

[Dave Goldberg]

Tom, I completely agree with you that Israel will one day have an Arab president. And that person will be Jewish.

Jews are not a race.

Kidding aside, I can the see the realm of possibilities where a non-Jew could someday become Prime Minister in Israel. Can the same be said about a Jew leading an Arab country?

On NPR's Newsmaker Interview, Carter explained that the "state of aparthied" was not racial, nor religious, but premised on acquisition of land, and he flatly stated that this was not a condition within the State of Israel.

Your earlier posts extended Carter's agrument to within Israel's own borders. But this most recent post now applies to the occupied territories. That the annexation of the West Bank and Gaza, with the associated assimilation of the Palestinians would create a Jewish minority in the Jewish State is unquestioned. It is for that reason that a growing majority in Israel are coming to understand that an independant, and secure Palestinian State is inevitable - and probably essential for Israel's survival.

That leaves the native population of Jews, Muslims, Christians, Druze, etc, who live as Israeli citizens, who enjoy a far greater standard of living, and religous freedom than thier neighbors. But also, very far from perfect. As you say, demographic shifts are inevitable. However, this is really deminished as a threat, if Israel is left alone to peacably exist to continue as a democracy within its recognized and secure borders.

In my view, predictions of demographics are insignificant compared to the barriers to peace that prevent the ENTIRE region from acheiving its state as the Holy Land.

[gringoman]

Race in the USA is an interesting topic, partly because frank and open discussion is generally verboten. Every public figure has to be either mush-mouthed or just steer clear. Penalties can be severe in this land of free speech. E.g. Whether you are for a predominantly white U.S. or whether you support the view that the U.S. may and should become the first country in history to peacefully surrender its identity with the race that created the modern world and Western civilization, you can't really have calmly reasoned public symposiums on it, welcoming a free and open exchange of views. The sense is that it's best just to let the steamroller roll. Less risky too.

[Doron]

This is a very hot topic. one that will surely bring very loud voices to the conversation. on a personal note, as an Israeli and also a US citizen i tend to agree with Dr. Barnett's analysis even though emotionally it presents quite the struggle, fear is a great block to reason sometimes.

If i am permitted to look at the society which i have grown in, served in its army, and will always call home. even if i am to ignore the plight of the Palestinians within the occupied territories, the marked injustice towards Arab Israeli citizens, and just looking at the jewish society alone, I have to admit a horrible truth.

The occupation of Palestine, and subjugation of the Arab nation in this country is actively destroying the very basis of moral fabric within Israeli society.

Israel must, for its survival acknowledge that the traumas its past must not lead the road for its future decisions. maintaining that its neighbors are horrible as the watermark by which to measure its own committed injustices will do nothing to keep the country from losing its technological brain power and its intellectual resiliency to richer safer shores.

In the globalized competitive market it is unthinkable that a VP of R&D at acme-tech will have to forgo his job for a month + every year till his is fifty years old, simply because he was a paratrooper when he was 19, Israelis are waking into this situation.

I believe Israel has the unique opportunity to invest in its population . - arab and jews alike with qualities that will insure its leading role in a globalized world. Israel has much to offer in agricultural and hi-tech industries, with capabilities that far outstrip many of its European counterparts.

heavy investment in state sponsored education for arab (yes, secular education, mandatory for all children) will do wonders to improve their competitiveness and their willingness to participate in a better building of society. if they are equal members of society then they will enjoy the unique privileges israel may stand to offer, and this in turn will not be missed by the neighbors.

there is only one way to solve this. through equal citizenship.Israel needs to raise the bar again.

[TGGP]

Japan still hasn't opened up to much immigration. They prefer robots. Considering the riots in Paris and the threat of terrorism posed to Israel, what is the rationale toward letting "anybody become a full citizen" of a country? Most governments tend to take a more lenient stance toward immigration than their constituents, so I don't see how trying to keep a country the way it is demographically is somehow not "resembling a democracy as we define it".

[RyeBread]

Your comment about a Hispanic president of the US made me think about how we view race in the US. We have a black syndrome here. Hispanic/Latino is like calling someone American. However, when you name someone Hispanic, people maintain an incredibly different view, like a view of black people. Why do people always forget that "Latin" America is derived from Europe? Especially South America.

[Charles Ganske]

Tom,It may not be PC to ask this question, but whenever I am presented with this argument that Israel must either remain a democracy or a Jewish majority state but not both I wonder: have the people presenting this argument ever noticed the increasing number of non-Jewish, non-Arab immigrants to Israel? Setting aside the argument from the Israeli Right that Palestinian census numbers are inflated and birth rates are falling faster than anywhere else in the Arab world, it seems to me that as long as its economy continues to grow, Israel could accept large numbers of non-Jewish, non-Arab immigrants if it really wanted to. Perhaps neither Orthodox Israeli Jews or Israeli Arabs and Palestinians want to hear that? Does the thought of future IDF officers of Vietnamese Buddhist or Ethiopian or Ugandan Christian origin seem bizarre? Not so much anymore, I would think. So I don't think Tom's answer to the question quite covers it - Israel could easily remain a Jewish majority state (thus preserving its framers' intent) while having a plurality non-Jewish population.

[Charles Ganske]

in other words, the argument that "time and demographics are on our side" is mostly propaganda, because states will not simply stand still while their demographics change, or simply continue to accept immigrants from a single source. Even the prospect of large scale non-Jewish, non-Arab immigration into Israel from Africa and Asia appears to make this discussion (and Tom's argument with respect to Israel, since his globalized world vs. citizenship argument can just as easily apply to an Israeli immigrant from Vietnam) moot.

[Tom Barnett]

Great discussion!

Thanks for the education.

I gotta get sloppier more often.

[Adam Khan]

As others have pointed out in these comments, Jewishness is a more subtle (and interesting?) form of race/ethnic identity than Japaneseness, there being Jews of all races.

Charles Ganske's comment here is very helpful: how often outside of Israel do people understand that within the context of the notion "Jewish state", a term intentionally left undefined by the founders, we have a society of immigrants that does look and feel increasingly multi-culti? I would indeed wager that soon enough there will be Vietnamese Buddhist IDF officers, if there aren't some already.

Indeed, the Jewish non-racial notion of ethnicity is almost a kind of parallel to American non-racial, non-ethnic nationality. And in reality today I doubt it's much harder for a non-Jew to become Israeli than it is for a non-American to become a United States citizen.

Right now I don't believe Israel has a clear-cut vision for how to address Dr Barnett's issues and proceed into the future, but what's more important is that it knows it lacks this vision, and as a liberal democracy (despite the naysayers) it is equipped and eager to have this internal conversation.

Perhaps one nice definition of a Jewish state is one that is constantly asking just what a state is -- "pilpul" institutionalized at the Leviathan level. The United States arguably answered the question back in 1776, and the business of America is now business, but the business that most excites Israelis is statehood.