Easy prediction to make

ARTICLE: General May See Early Success in Iraq: But Sharp Rise in Insurgent Violence Could Soon Follow, Officials Say, By Thomas E. Ricks, Washington Post, January 23, 2007; Page A01

Everyone knows surge is to pave withdrawal and history of insurgencies says they always ratchet up violence at end. Why? Want to create impression that occupier forced to pull out because of that ramping up. Very effective strategy and--of course--somewhat true.

Hezbollah and Hamas do this every time with Israel's withdrawals, so makes sense to expect it here.

Comments

[Steven]

Has Petraeus' military strategy ever been tried before? (see excerpt from Post article below.....) If so, do we have any data on the performance of this strategy?

The plan to bring security to Baghdad will begin with the deployment of U.S. and Iraqi troops into nine sectors across the city. For years, most U.S. troops have lived on big "Forward Operating Bases." Petraeus plans to instead establish battalion command posts across the city. "I plan to ensure that some of our forces locate in the neighborhoods they protect," he said in his written statement.