ARTICLE: General May See Early Success in Iraq: But Sharp Rise in Insurgent Violence Could Soon Follow, Officials Say, By Thomas E. Ricks, Washington Post, January 23, 2007; Page A01

Everyone knows surge is to pave withdrawal and history of insurgencies says they always ratchet up violence at end. Why? Want to create impression that occupier forced to pull out because of that ramping up. Very effective strategy and--of course--somewhat true.

Hezbollah and Hamas do this every time with Israel's withdrawals, so makes sense to expect it here.