Six party talks good, but hard to be optimistic

ARTICLE: North Korea Will Resume Nuclear Talks, By JOSEPH KAHN and HELENE COOPER, New York Times, November 1, 2006

Good sign. Chinese were clear to me that they intended to follow through on Kim with hard squeeze. My guess is that Beijing signaled an oil cut-off and that's what gets Kim to table.

Of course, this particular table hasn't worked in past, but at least it joins the four adults (Russia, China, Japan and US) in conversation.

So we shall see.

But I wouldn't expect Kim to view Bush as anything but weaker from here on out, so I'm not optimistic (and I hate that, because I like my side to win).

Comments

[Clark Howell]

Maybe something'll come of this. At least it shows that the UN sanctions + Chinese pressure has some clout. Let's see what happens.

[Mark in Texas]

The main weapon that North Korea has to threaten China is the disruption that it would cause by disintegrating.

One approach that might diminish the power of this threat somewhat and has the additional benefit of humanitarian compassion might be for China to transfer the North Korean refugees that it catches to South Korea instead of sending them back to be tortured and executed in the north.

That would be a way to humiliate Kim without putting too much additional stress on the North Korean population. It would also help the South Koreans develop some capability for dealing with the starving hoards in the north by getting some practice helping the refugees adjust.

Krazy Kim might react with the equivalent of the Mariel Boat Lift by sending enormous numbers across the border, but that is also good practice for the Chinese and Koreans. The Chinese can keep the Korean refugees behind barbed wire where they will at least eat regularly while they are pending transfer to South Korea and the South Koreans can keep them behind barbed wire as well once they get there. In any case, the North Koreans will be better off in Chinese or South Korean concentration camps than they are in North Korea.

Eventually the South Koreans will let the northerners out when relatives or church groups sponsor them or when the South Korean authorities feel that they are sufficiently acclimated to integrate into South Korean society or when the South Korean electorate decides that it wants the northerners to be let out.

Maybe the Europeans will take in some North Korean refugees. I bet that they will be a lot less trouble than the Muslims.