Life during wartime (this ainít no fooliní around!)

ìU.S. Warns of High Risk of Qaeda Attack: Finance Centers Are Said to Be the Targets,î by Eric Lichtblau, New York Times, 2 Aug, p. A1.

ìAl Qaeda Seeks to Disrupt U.S. Economy, Experts Warn,î by Don Van Natta Jr., NYT, 2 Aug, p. A12

ìCampaign Dogged by Terror Fight: Candidates Show Signs of Concern and Confusion,î by Adam Nagourney and David M. Halbfinger, NYT, 2 Aug, p. A1.

ìWhat Would Machiavelli Do? If Kerry can win the election, America can win the war,î by Robert Wright, NYT, 2 Aug, p. A21.

ìKerry Pledges Iraq Troop Cut Within 4 Years: Details Not Offered on Ways To Get More Aid From Allies,î by Dan Balz and Lois Romano, Washington Post, 2 Aug, p. A1.

ìUnexpectedly, Kerry drops slightly in poll: Findings may indicate that voters have made up minds,î by Susan Page, USA Today, 2 Aug, p. 5A.

ìFor Now, Kerry Has History on His Side,î by Robert G. Kaiser, WP, 25 July, p. B5.

Yes, the Talking Heads were my band growing upóthe one, the only (okay, also the B-52s, Psychedelic Furs and The Clash, but the Heads were #1!).

The data on this very specific alert does seem very impressive, coming as it does from a recently captured semi-senior al Qaeda player. So unless youíre Michael Moore or one of his Rush-like ditto heads, I think youíd be hard-pressed to level this one on Bush-Cheney fear-mongering.

The fact that weíre having this sort of uncertainty amidst a presidential election is unusual, but not unprecedented. To many, it recalls the 1968 election between an LBJ who wanted to wage a serious war without asking the American public for any sacrifice beyond their sons and a Nixonian realpolitik-type who only promises vaguely that he has a ìplanî to end this war on his watch. If you think that historical analogy is a stretch, wait until you see the protestors at the GOP convention in NYC. Thatíll look a bit like í68.

Talking to my mom about how to buy stuff in China, she told me the trick was simply to exclaim to the shopkeeper that ìI canít possibly pay this price!î and then start walking determinedly toward the exit. At that point the previously intransigent salesperson is likely to offer ìjust youî a ìspecial one-timeî 40% discount on the spot.

I think Kerryís moment, if he wins this election, may well work out like that: simply by electing him, virtually every allyís ìpriceî for helping us in the GWOT will come down 40% on the spot. So all he has to do for now is signal that heís willing and ready to deal and let the anti-Bush hatred thatís swept more of this country than many realize do its magic.

Then again, that all depends on which poll you read. If you listen to Republican pollsters, they point out that no challenger since WWII has ever won unless he came out of his convention with a popular lead, which Kerry definitely does not have. But if you listen to Democratic pollsters, theyíll tell you no president in the modern TV age has won re-election with an approval rate below 50%, and Bushís hovers in the low to mid 40s.
So one sideís goose seems cooked, I just wish we knew which.

One thing seems certain, polls will be all over the dial this year, and this baby may be the great nail-biteróor it may not. Some experts think Bush may be looking like Carter in 1980: seemingly close to Reagan right up to the end and then boom! A landslide! This model posits that there is enough soft support for Bush and enough passionate swell for Kerry (aka, Bush Hating) to make it a surprisingly lopsided loss for the incumbent.

Confused? So am I. Almost every day I swerve between assuming Bush is unbeatable to assuming I am oblivious to the surging dump-Bush movement simply because I live and work with the military. I am glad to be heading to China. I need a rest from contemplating all the possibilities so much.