It's over in Iran alright--for the theocracy as well

Triggered by a Global Post commentary via WPR's Media RoundUp.  

Yes, it's true that the Green Movement has largely been crushed in Iran, but the larger reality is that it was never the true target of the military putsch effected by the Revolutionary Guards--it was the excuse.

The real target of Ahmadinejad's years-long effort to create a president-centric political system in Iran was the mullahs and the no-longer-supreme Leader--now made more figurehead.  

The counter-revolution happened alright, and the mullahs no longer truly rule.  What remains is a single-party state or political mafia whose tentacles extend throughout the economy, under the false image of pious/ideological rule.

New package?  Hardly.  Not all that different from the old Soviet model.

The revolution has died.  What's left is the carcass and those who've cornered the market on picking over its remains.

Our "tough" new sanctions on Iran--read the fine print

AP photo, WAPO story.

Clinton shrugs off the surprise Turkey-Brazil-Iran deal of yesterday, and says this new round of sanctions is about as tough as it can get.

All very nice as a headline, but get down to the bottom of the WAPO piece:

European and U.S. officials have made clear that a new U.N. resolution would be the weakest of three steps toward "crippling sanctions." The other two steps are a European Union resolution and tough unilateral sanctions by individual countries.

But nothing can happen before the imprimatur of a new U.N. resolution, since some European countries will not act on sanctions without U.N. approval. Diplomats said that some of the proposed language in the current resolution was added with the full knowledge that it would be removed by the Russians and Chinese -- but then could be revived in the European resolution. The individual country sanctions would come after the European Union has acted and would be led by the United States, Britain, France, Germany and other like-minded nations, diplomats said.

Turkey and Brazil, which currently hold rotating seats on the Security Council, have expressed opposition to new U.N. sanctions on Iran.

Lebanon also has indicated it would not support a sanctions resolution against Iran, which has provided military and political support to an influential faction in the government, Hezbollah. Lebanon holds the rotating presidency of the Security Council this month, which may complicate efforts to bring the matter for a vote before June.

So tell me what's changed.  It's still the West promising tougher sanctions, the UN as the gridlock, and the non-West talking a big game but acting in their own interests.

Both India and China hailed the Turkey-Brazil-Iran proposal. That tells you all you need to know about how universal these "tough" new sanctions are going to be. Strip away the false promises and this is still the West believing it constitutes a global quorum.

New Core Turkey, Brazil engineer nuclear fuel enrichment deal with Iran

This is both quite impressive in terms of non-superpower nuclear diplomacy but likewise self-serving--especially to Turkey.

What New Core powers like Turkey and Brazil say with this deal:  We ourselves can and will decide, under what circumstances we'll collectively self-engineer ourselves--and other rising regional powers like us--into nuclear status.

In other words, the Old Core, old-boy nuclear powers club no longer decides.

Bold, slick moves by both Lula and Erdogan that will provide Ahmadinejad just enough cover to claim victory--and keep us guessing--while effectively killing any movement toward tougher sanctions.  The Chinese have to like it, as will Moscow--I imagine.

Have to give it up to Iran on this one, as well as Turkey and Brazil.  This deal constitutes a real rule-set reset when it comes to issues of proliferation--both real and stealthy.  The West simply no longer dictates on this issue.

End of the world to some, but just another aspect of rising great powers incorporating themselves into the venues of international power and influence instead of waiting for the established powers to invite them in--on the West's preferred terms.

Whether or not Iran will truly be satisfied with a Japan-like outcome (obviously capable and close to weaponization but not taking the final step) is yet to be seen, but this deal is an effective short-term defusing of any logic of attack.  Now, Israel is pre-approved to be widely condemned for any kinetics by the bulk of the world's rising great powers.

Assuming it holds, it looks like the latest "check" to me, meaning a move that keeps Tehran close to its endgame win and essentially determining our next, checkmate-avoiding move.  Iran's declaration that it will continue to enrich some fuel on its own?  That's just an in-your-face reminder.

Will it be enough for the West?  Absolutely not.  But it gives China and India the out they need.

The big point:  Iran keeps coming up with these clever ways to buy time, and in doing so, it's attracting a lot of implicit support from rising New Core powers who aren't exactly in favor of Iran's nuclear status but will defend its right to do so--however quietly and cleverly.

The Iranian "Blade Runner"

Gist:

While the world's film community continues to protest the detention of Iranian auteur Jafar Panahi, another helmer from Iran traveled to Italy's recent Cartoons on the Bay festival to unveil a sneak peek of the futuristic "Tehran 2121," billed as the country's first sci-fi feature, live action or animated.

Shot by locally popular animator Bahram Azimi, using a rotoscoping technique but with a "Blade Runner" aesthetic, "Tehran 2121," almost seems intended as Iran's answer to opponents of its hard-line government.

Azimi described the pic as being about "a far-away future in which, despite how much our country will have changed, the morality and the ways of Iranians will remain the same."

"Tehran 2121" producer Mohammad Abolhassani says, "The Islamic Republic is happy to use the tools of culture to spread peace and equality." He called Iran "the top animation nation of the Middle East," citing 200 companies in the country's toon sector. 

Animation is often used in Iran for government campaigns, such as the series of computer-animated adverts that Azimi shot in 2006 to spruce up the image of Iran's police force. 

Seven minutes of the big-budget "Tehran 2121" unspooled at the Italo toon fest. 

Pic revolves around a 160-year-old man, who, deeming his death to be imminent, wants his niece, to come to Tehran so he can pass on his inheritance to her, on condition that she gets married.

During her travels, she encounters three men: a taxi driver, a rock singer and the owner of a robot shop.

This I got to see.

Recent Bret Stephens column cites Bernard Lewis saying he can imagine a future where Turkey is the Islamic republic and Iran is the secular one.

Frankly, just the fact that Iranians can think like this is interesting enough.

Of course, the notion that the Revolutionary Guards will get you to this future is awfully ludicrous, but the Iranian people?  That I could see--post-revolution.