One-fifth of humanity changes slowly

ARTICLE: In Crisis, China Vows Openness,
By Ariana Eunjung Cha, Washington Post, March 5, 2009; Page 10

This one is also worth reading. As always, the skeptics won't spot the change and the optimists will.

To me, it's just a matter of time, because it's the complexity of what China's trying to do with such a large populace that will mandate the political pluralism. This isn't some teeny-tiny Singapore that can be ruled as a family business. This is one out of every five humans.

So yeah, expect the leadership to pursue change as slowly as possible.

China as Gap source

ABSTRACT: LETTER FROM CHINA, The New Yorker, February 9, 2009

Interesting dynamic to capture: more and more, people from the Gap are connecting personally with China to access goods for use/resale back home. You see this all the time when flying to such places from the U.S.: tons of locals returning home with unbelievable amounts of consumer purchases, plenty of which will actually go into resale once they return home.

Point being, China is now another source point for Gap nations.

(Thanks: J Ryan)

Kill Salafi jihadism in Central Asia

ARTICLE: Ten Years After Terror's Arrival In Central Asia, By Bruce Pannier, Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, February 16, 2009

Good quick overview worth reading. As I tend to be pessimistic about Afghanistan's strategic importance, this piece is a good antidote more in line with my notion of shutting down Central Asia as the northern escape route of radical Salafi jihadism out of the Gulf (Africa being the other great alternative).

(Thanks: Louis Heberlein)

Love seeing China and Russia in bed together

POST: Russia Agrees to $25 Billion Oil-for-Loans Deal With China, By Sophie Beach, China Digital Times, February 17, 2009

Logical and good. I want a China with as many secure energy sources as possible, and I want a Russia that diversified its customer base as much as possible.

(Thanks: Craig Nordin)

Ex post facto: an inspiration recognized in Wooldridge

I made the mistake of calling my favorite Adrian Wooldridge book "Future Wealth" (different book), a mistake Lexington Green caught. I think I started saying "future . . ." and then Wooldridge finished it for me, when I actually offered the compliment to him over the phone.

What this exchange/mistake/correction makes me realize in the end is that Wooldridge's book title stuck in my head, leading me to title the coda in Great Powers as "Future Perfect Tense."

I had completely forgotten about that inspiration and only had it awakened by the interview/etc., making the interaction all the cooler now. I only wish I had thought of it beforehand to mention to Wooldridge himself.

Sean: link this up to the DC on the coda and backmatter.

Tom in U.S. News & World Report

OPINION: Navigating American National Security Challenges in a Changing Global Landscape: National security expert Thomas Barnett speaks with U.S. News about his latest book, By Anna Mulrine, U.S. News & World Report, February 27, 2009

This interview has moved from the subscriber site to the free site. The lead:

Where has America most significantly gone off course in the past eight years?

Where Bush got off course for me was becoming really obsessed with two extremes: terrorism and this notion of accelerated democracy. It captured so much of our foreign policy and national security strategy after 9/11. For the rest of the world looking at us, they're just struggling to get their baseline incomes up from $2 a day to $13 a day. There's all the social and economic change that comes about with that shift from basic sustenance economies to an economy with some abundance to it. So for us to become after 9/11 so visibly and pervasively fixated on "kill all terrorists now" and "bring me accelerated democracy now" to them just seemed superfluous, like we were chasing very narrow and extreme goals that didn't really correspond to the lives they were leading.

Tom on Little Rock public radio

Abe Martinez of KUAR (FM 89, Little Rock) produced a brief interview (3:11) with Tom when Tom was in Little Rock at the Clinton School. Interesting to hear the Arkansas-centric perspective.

The interview is leading the KUAR features (left sidebar).

Economist's Adrian Wooldridge: "I really loved your book."

Just did the 30 min podcast taping with Wooldridge, the US-based editor of the mag and its "Lexington" columnist. It was a real thrill for me, because I consider him second to only Martin Wolf (Financial Times) as an expert thinker re: globalization and global economics (Hell, why choose? They're both the best).

I did the interview in my daughter's room, off her Mickey Mouse phone (the one we got on her Make-a-Wish trip back in 1996!), because it's the only good hard-line phone in the house. Wooldridge was a bit distant in terms of audio, so I fear there were moments when he tried to step in where I couldn't hear him adequately, thus the impression that I'm blowing him off. But such is the technical challenge of remotes, whether you're talking podcast, radio or TV.

As it was, Wooldridge was Brian Lamb-good in terms of his questions, which is always such a delight as an interviewee, so the conversation was very easy to pursue. I was very much on, probably because of the combination of personal excitement and the quality of the questions. As always, you dance according to the skill of your partner.

At the end, once the tape stopped, I told him how much I've admired his books, especially Future Perfect. He returned the compliment by saying, "I really loved your book."

[NOTE: I got this wrong at first, calling it "Future Wealth." Lexington Green caught the mistake, which was cool, because now I remember that the phrase "future perfect" stuck in my head and that's why I used "Future Perfect Tense" as the title of the coda in Great Powers! So very neat to be reminded of that connection.]

Made my day.

I couldn't have asked for a better review from the top guy (IMHO) of the top pub in the world (as I have long argued).

Another reason why writing books is fun: you get to have experiences like this.

No idea on when podcast hits Web. Have my PR people tracking hard. But any help appreciated.

Leviathan license

ARTICLE: New Post Proposed at Pentagon, By Ellen Nakashima, Washington Post, March 4, 2009; Page D02

I think this is a good move. The further you get the cost estimates away from the services, the more truth you can uncover.

Bad sign for the Leviathan: the administration is looking for a hunting license.

Fidel's desperation

ARTICLE: Fidel Castro Says 2 Aides Were Felled by Ambitions, Associated Press, March 4, 2009; Page A10

Great sign. Already the jockeying is getting so strong re: post-Fidel Cuba that he's felt the need to discipline the next tier of leaders.

Sign of his retained strength to some, but a sign of desperation to me. Fidel knows it will all come apart once he leaves--not overnight, mind you, but with a steady inevitability.

Reengaging Russia is good

ARTICLE: Obama Team Seeks to Redefine Russia Ties, By Karen DeYoung, Washington Post, March 4, 2009; Page A11

OP-ED: No Deal, Washington Post, March 4, 2009; Page A14

Yes, I am glad to see the Obama administration seek to reengage Russia now that it's been dramatically weakened by the capital flight after the Georgia smackdown and the general decline in its finances caused by the drop in oil and the financial crisis. Keeping Russia on the outs serves no purpose given Obama's wider agenda to Russia's south. While all the articles (and the WAPO editorial) make it seem like Iran is the central issue, it's really Afghanistan-Pakistan.

No, I do not expect Moscow to somehow deliver Iran's denuclearization--just ain't gonna happen, but our confluence of interests in AFPAK is real and growing.

The game-changer of the 21st century

SPECIAL REPORT: "Burgeoning bourgeoisie: A special report on the new middle classes in emerging markets," by John Parker, The Economist, 14 February 2009.

Decent report overall, but one to read, especially the technical note up front on deciding who's the middle.

First, there is the middle class we'd recognize. That's about 6% of the planet now, growing to 15% by 2030.

Then there's the middle class defined by purchasing power, where the all-important factor is, Who's getting more disposable income in the future? That person is earning between $2-13 dollars a day. In 1990 that was only 1.5 billion, but in 2005 it's 2.6 out of 6.5B on the planet that year and you're talking 40%.

You add that to the 6% and we're talking close to half the planet's population.

The book cited in this regard (Surjit Bhalla, The Middle Class Kingdoms of India and China, forthcoming), produces a chart that shows the middle class population's growth as a percentage of world total. It hits 10% around 1900, then 20% in the 1930s, then tops 30% in the late 1970s, then 40% in the late 1990s and reached 50%, by his calculation, in 2006.

The West v Asia shares of global middle class: about even in low 40s in 1700, then West is just over 60% in 1850 and Asia drops to just over 20%. In 1950, it about 70-v-5, advantage West, dropping to 50-v-20 in 1980. In 2006, Bhalla estimates the West is about one-fifth of his generously defined middle class, while Asia accounts for 60%.

The global middle class is the true "main character" of Great Powers.

(Thanks: Frank Hecker)

Operation immigration

ARTICLE: U.S. Military Will Offer Path to Citizenship, By JULIA PRESTON, New York Times, February 14, 2009

One should note that the law that provides for this is over 200 years old. The article is not describing a new concept or a rarely invoked one. It has always been the case that joining our military as a foreigner means accelerated citizenship. In truth, the article is just citing a decision to go active inside Afghanistan on this subject in an effort to gin up local numbers at first.

(Thanks: Kilngoddess)

Leviathan as scenario, SysAdmin as outcome

CRIME: "Always on My Mind: David Kennedy's obsession with drug dealers has made him a highly sought-after criminologist," by Suzanne Smalley, Time, 9 February 2009.

The myth of the rich drug-dealer: most live with their momma and barely scrap by.

The usual approach is slam-bang-down-doors and put 'em behind bars for the long haul, but not much changes with this, and over time, the locals begin to hate your cops like local Iraqis had hated our raid-oriented troops before the COIN.

One eccentric criminologist has become a hot commodity for pushing a different approach: gather a ton of evidence on the dealers and bring them in, showing them the obvious, Leviathan-delivered outcome . . . and then offer them a rehabilitation route out of that scenario, and providing the follow-up to make it work.

Derided by the more kinetically minded as "hug a thug." But where it's been tried, there are stunning drops in crime.

A mini-flipping of an insurgency--dealer by dealer.

War, war everywhere! [with addition]

ARTICLE: Economically Fueled Upheaval, By Michael T. Klare, The Nation, February 27, 2009

Klare is a master at fear-mongering, the high priest of resource wars.

This one is a beauty: we can stick pins everywhere on the world map where there is any evidence of social unrest. Then we can plot where the wars will follow.

Of course, he admits that the norm will be for the local cops to break it up and it goes nowhere, but damn it all, can't we dream?

It will be interesting to tally up all the state-on-state wars that explode in number across the world in 2009.

I hope Klare writes a piece describing that.

[ed. Tom adds:]

The historical record has always shown that increased resource sharing drives more cooperation than conflict. For a good example, see the Shared Rivers piece in World Policy Review (subscription required).

Don't waste any crisis!

POST: NATO May Ask China for Support in Afghanistan, By Japhet Weeks, China Digital Times, March 2, 2009

Now we're getting somewhere!

I have no doubt there is connection with Secy Clinton's visit. Finally! A secretary that actually moves the pile now and then instead of just delivering talking points! What a change from Powell and Rice.

I am getting the feeling more and more that she is going to be a spectacular SECSTATE.

This is really important, per my interview with the Chinese posted yesterday: we need the Chinese to step up big time in the coming years, so no crisis may be wasted.

(Thanks: Steve Epstein)

Guess: Obama's managing our expectations on Iran

ARTICLE: Clinton Pessimistic on Iran Outreach, By Glenn Kessler, Washington Post, March 3, 2009; Page A08

Maybe just a slip of the realist tongue by Secy Clinton or maybe a purposeful leak.

It's my guess that the Obama administration is smart enough to know they cannot stop Iran from getting the bomb, and thus all the recent commentary by people like Chairman Mullen and this "oops" by Clinton are really part of an expectations management campaign.

Is Medvedev the good cop?

WORLD NEWS: "Economic Ills Spur Russian Gestures of Openness," by Alan Cullison, Wall Street Journal, 12 February 2009.

Signs of more political openness, or sharpening the blade in anticipation of tougher times?

Article makes it seem like Medvedev playing good cop and Putin still bad.

With drawdown scheduled, no need for Iran to talk about Iraq with U.S.

INTERNATIONAL: "Security Talks About Iraq Not Needed, Iran Signals," by Steven Lee Myers, New York Times, 12 February 2009.

We had our chance. Now, with the clock ticking on us, Tehran is okay with running out the time.

I would be too.

Dubai as boom-town transformed into ghost-town: how very Gold Rush

FRONT PAGE: "Laid-Off Foreigners Flee as Once Booming Dubai Spirals Down," by Robert F. Worth, New York Times, 12 February 2009.

The iconic image is the abandoned car (to be repossessed) at the airport, with the maxed-out credit cards left inside.

There is the debtors' prison route and there is the get-out-of-Dodge escape--Dickens in the Wild West.

Why doesn't Abu Dhabi rescue its free-wheeling cousin? In financial terms, the long knives are out, suggests the article.