Gave up my Q

I had a Secret, then Top Secret, and then SCI (I will forgo the acronym decipher because I often get it wrong, suffice it to say, it was above TS) in rapid order in the early 1990s at CNA (Center for Naval Analyses), maintaining the SCI through my 7-year stint in DoD, but losing all clearance thereafter.

Then I start the contract with Oak Ridge National Lab and am encouraged to get a Dept. Of Energy Q clearance, which I am told sits in the SCI range because of the nukes stuff.

So I apply and get, and I let it roll for a year, but after that year and I realize how little I want or need access to this info, I begin to view the whole thing as a liability--as in, only good for getting me in trouble on reporting requirements re: people met, countries visited, etc.

So I kill it last week.

Alas, I return to the "unclean" world, no wiser, but certainly less encumbered.

We should work with India

ARTICLE: US taps Delhi on Lanka foray, By K.P. NAYAR, (Calcutta) Telegraph, Sunday , March 8 , 2009

Classic SysAdin operation where we should do more than just ask India's support. We should have their participation.

India has been active there before and I know many will argue that it's better for us to play humanitarian on our own and not upset any local apple carts (besides on Sri Lanka), but I can't see passing up this chance to do something right with India on our side.

If for no other reason, we could contrast India's grown-up behavior with that of the childish Chinese navy right now.

(Thanks: stuart abrams)

World recession and the Gap

ARTICLE: U.S. Downturn Dragging World Into Recession, By Anthony Faiola, Washington Post, March 9, 2009; Page A01

Good piece by Faiola that describes the rippling effect of the crisis and the biggest instability factor inside Gap countries that--until recently--appeared well on their way to something better: the return of large numbers back to poverty conditions.

The 46 m predicted by the IMF isn't large, unless it's just the opening wedge.

You begin to see how this crisis is far from being just a domestic issue. In this interconnected world, it's automatically a global one.

A much worse sense for Asia's economies going forward

EDITORIAL: "Leaders: Asia's suffering; The slump in East Asia was made at home as well as in the West," The Economist, 31 January 2009.

BRIEFING: "Asian economies: Troubled tigers; Asia needs a new engine of growth," The Economist, 31 January 2009.

The Economist had previously argued that the downturn in Asia wouldn't be as bad as 1997-98, but now it seems to be sounding the alarm, calling it "breathtaking."

While Asia's reserve wealth gives it real insulation from the financial crisis, it's the downturn in consumption in the West that's disabling growth throughout the region. Thus, Asia blaming the West for causing the crisis, while correct, gets a bit tedious.

Are we supposed to guarantee Asia never-ending markets for its exports?

Please.

We've had this conversation with the Japanese for decades now: Asia has to generate its own domestic demand and stop demanding from the West the unlimited right to run up a trade surplus. Feeling "betrayed" by Western "incompetence" in making the build-up of its debt work forever to the advantage of Asian exporters strains my common sense.

As the editorial points out, Asia has had a decade to fix its own broken financial systems so as to encourage domestic demand and it has not. Now, local demand falls faster than exports.

Yes, that means Asia can now stimulate like crazy, given its own build-up of reserves, but that only works so far, argues the Economist. The truth is, "Asian governments must introduce structural reforms that encourage people to spend and reduce the need for them to save."

And here's the kicker: "And across Asia, economies need to shift away from increasing capital-intensive manufacturing towards labour-intensive services, so that a bigger share of national income goes to households."

In short, the old mercantalism won't work.

So it's not just America's job to fix the structure of global trade. Asia needs to tackle this problem as well.

Islamic women will change Islam

POST: Reading the Quran in Kuala Lumpur, by Madhavi Sunder, The Faculty Blog (U Chicago Law), February 16, 2009

Good example of what I've been talking about regarding women in Islam. Great stuff to see.

(Thanks: Lexington Green)

The end of EU's eastern expansion

WORLD NEWS: "Crisis Spurs Call for Bigger Bailouts: Western European Leaders Want to Double IMF Fund to Help Eastern Neighbors," by Sebastian Moffett, Marek Strzelecki and Marcus Walker, Wall Street Journal, 23 February 2009.

All of the EU's--not to mention NATO's--expansion since Cold War's end had come during an age of economic expansion, to include eastern Europe's rapid integration into the global economy.

Now we see what a burden the easties become to western Europe during this first truly global downturn in the post-Cold War age.

My sense: this will greatly dampen future EU/NATO desire to expand eastward. I think we've come to the end of that chain of events, punctuated by Russia's smackdown of Georgia and reassertion of a sphere of influence that now is reduced to the former Soviet states, with the Baltics now gone and Central Asia falling increasingly into China's economic orbit.

PNM as text

Tom got this email recently from a friend of a distant relative:

once again, ethereal forces, stars aligning or something outer dimensional has apparently come into play - I am currently doing some Ohio Graduation Test tutoring at a local high school and just happened to be talking with one of the teachers for a class entitled Problems of Democracy, turns out they are using Tom Barnett's book, The Pentagon's New Map as a book to read this semester - holy cow! thought you might be interested, heck, thought Tom might be interested as well

Dubai and the rest of them are an example we should support in the Mideast

OPINION: "There's No Reason to Gloat Over Dubai's Fall," by Zvika Krieger, Wall Street Journal, 20 February 2009.

Dubai right now is sort of the punching bag/poster boy for high-flying Arab oil kingdoms who've lost it big in the economic crisis, but it's actually not that representative, by most accounts. In the Gulf, Dubai was rather singular in his highly-leveraged approach to development. Yes, everybody is flying not so high with oil at around $40 instead of $140, but Dubai's problems are more the credit crunch and its tendency to bet so aggressively on growth than oil's drop per se.

Admitting that just about everybody doing well in globalization over the past decade went overboard in ambition, and that Dubai went way overboard, dumping on them now strikes me as very shortsighted. That's a counterintuitive argument that you get quite nicely in this opinion piece.

Dubai's rise was based overwhelmingly on the promise of the region's growing connectivity with globalization--a very solid and smart bet to make:

In a region mired in poverty and extremism, the Gulf emirates are shattering taboos and challenging traditional power structures. Their financial demise would be a great loss to the Middle East.

The Gulf emirates have become financial lifelines in the region, sustaining their less wealthy Arab neighbors through billions of dollars of direct investment, and providing tens of thousands of Arabs with jobs. Their free-zone model of development has been adopted in countries like Jordan and Saudi Arabia, and their tourism boom has overflowed into countries like Egypt and Syria. The Western businesses attracted to the Gulf are opening new markets across the region.

The piece goes on to praise the emirates as a whole for pioneering new dispute mediation in the region and revolutionizing education in the Arab world. Then there's Al Jazeera out of Qatar.

A perfect example for going forward? Hardly. But the best ones we've got right now on the key issues of economic connectivity.

So skip the schadenfreude, please, and keep your eyes on the big picture: those 50-100 million jobs that need to be created in the region over the next 20 years.

Tom's on C-SPAN2 today

Don't forget to watch! Here's the info:

Thomas P.M. Barnett talks about the challenges and opportunities facing the United States in the world today and describes what he thinks the world will look like in the future. Mr. Barnett spoke at Politics and Prose in Washington, DC.
(Sunday 9:45 AM and 7 PM, Monday 4:45 AM ET)

If you don't have cable (like me), it looks like you can watch live on the web.

And, of course, they'll have the video up to watch on demand soon.

Column 144

How globalization meets Pakistan

In my latest book "Great Powers," I advance the controversial notion that America's success in spreading our model of globalization around the planet will force us into many compromises with local extremists seeking cultural sanctuary from its revolutionary norms of individual emancipation. My argument is that--as a rule -- most such compromises will be generational, for what is "radical" to elders soon becomes "normal" to youth.

But then I'm confronted by the recent political agreement between Pakistan's faltering government and the ascending Taliban in Swat Valley, whereby the latter is granted judicial emancipation from Pakistan's laws to enforce Islamic sharia.

Read on at KnoxNews.
Read on at Scripps Howard.

Tom reviewed in the WaPo

ARTICLE: Forget Freedom. Build the Economy., By Michael Fullilove, Washington Post, March 8, 2009; Page B06

Certainly not what we wanted in a review. You could argue it wasn't even open-minded. My first take was 'typical academic, 'realist' review'.

Tom says:

Not much of a review. Guy clearly likes his great-power war possibilities.

Tom's on C-SPAN tomorrow

Don't forget to watch! Here's the info:

Thomas P.M. Barnett talks about the challenges and opportunities facing the United States in the world today and describes what he thinks the world will look like in the future. Mr. Barnett spoke at Politics and Prose in Washington, DC.
(Sunday 9:45 AM and 7 PM, Monday 4:45 AM ET)

If you don't have cable (like me), it looks like you can watch live on the web.

And, of course, they'll have the video up to watch on demand soon.

Tom on Hugh for GP chapter 6

The latest:

Transcript

audio

Good stuff at Galrahn's

POST: "COIN" Means More Than Countersurgency Today, by Galrahn, Information Dissemination, February 27, 2009

Nice, summarizing and linking piece by Galrahn. I get a lot of "inside baseball" links to discussions that are very important but too esoteric for a lot of my readers (the current angels-dancing-on-the-head-of-a-pin scuffle on "hybrid wars," for example). So I try to restrict my links to things that provide larger context and not ask you to drill down heavily.

This post fits that bill nicely. I would suggest perusing the links as well.

I especially like the Bob Work suggestion on buying lotsa littoral combat ships, driving them to about "15k" in "mileage" (that's me talking) and then reselling them to small navies for their own purposes. To me, that is brilliant.

(Thanks: Michael Griffin)

Recessions happen

POST: Chinese Ambassador to India Speaks on Terrorism and China-India Economic Cooperation, by cschultz, China Digital Times, March 5, 2009

A few readers wonder why I don't soil myself publicly over the global downturn, as if the global boom was supposed to last forever! (All my plans destroyed! How could I have not imagined a business cycle's revenge!).

Besides it being my third global recession (and completely unlikely to be my last), the grand strategist in me recognizes the crisis possibilities for positive change. I mean, in a world 64-years-and-counting without great-power war, these are the great opportunities for new forms of leadership and leaders to emerge.

On this score, I remain pleasantly pleased across the dial.

In professional terms, then, these are most exciting times, but hardly the moment for childish hysterics.

But if you really need the freak-out fix, try cable news channels.

(Thanks: Steven Epstein)

SysAdmin USCG spreading code

POST: US Sees 'Test Run' With Captured Pirates (The Entire Story), By Christian Lowe, Defense Tech, February 18, 2009

Brad Barbaza writes:

Under a directive from the Obama administration, the US Coast Guard is using its recent capture of pirates near Africa to set up a legal framework for other nations to model in their prosecution of pirates. Reading this, I was struct at how it seemed to be something out of Great Powers. The world seems to be waiting for someone to take the lead on this. Until now, the only model was, 'Pay the ransom.'

We are not only providing security. We are also inserting some much needed code into the system.

More unilaterlism with Obama?

OP-ED: Obama, an economic unilateralist, By Spengler, Asia Times, Feb 18, 2009

Interestingly counterintuitive on the potential loss of American power versus rise of others as a result of the economic crisis.

(Thanks: kevin mccullough)

Tom on Hugh tonight

From Hugh's site, Tom'll be on the first hour, so that's 6pm ET (3pm PT).

Hugh is on from 3-6 PT. You can listen live on the internet on his home station, KRLA. Click on 'Listen Live', upper left.

Iran is great theater

ARTICLE: Iranian Leaders Fault Obama, Warn Israel Again, By Thomas Erdbrink, Washington Post, March 5, 2009; Page A11

Actually read this article carefully and you'll learn a lot.

Here are the parts that caught my eye:

"Even the new American president, who came to office with the slogan of bringing change in the policies of the Bush administration, avows unconditional commitment to Israel's security," Khamenei told representatives of pro-Palestinian groups at a conference in Tehran. "This commitment to Israel's security means the defense of state terrorism, injustice, oppression and a 22-day-long massacre of hundreds of Palestinian men, women and children," he said.

Khamenei was referring to Israel's recent assault on Hamas, the Iranian-backed Islamist movement that controls the Gaza Strip and rejects Israel's existence. About 1300 Palestinians, among them hundreds of civilians, and 13 Israelis, including three civilians, were killed during fighting in December and January ...

Iranian politicians seek U.S. recognition of their country's cleric-led system of government and its development of nuclear power, which Iran says is for peaceful purposes but which the United States, Israel and other nations worry is part of a weapons program. Iranians have also demanded that the United States apologize for orchestrating the 1953 overthrow of President Mohammed Mossadegh and for the 1988 downing of an Iran Air passenger jet, with 290 people aboard, by an American warship. U.S. officials said at the time that the airliner was shot down inadvertently and apologized.

"At this point, there is no need for Iran to compromise," Marandi said. "Let's face it, [Americans] are in a poor position. Their economy has run aground, they have no need for more instability in the region. They need us more than we need them."

... The United States and European nations favor a negotiated two-state solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, but Khamenei said a "democratic referendum" was the path to a resolution.

... Ahmadinejad, also speaking to the conference of pro-Palestinian groups, repeated his assertion that the Holocaust is a "big lie." Earlier statements of this kind have drawn international criticism and caused Israeli leaders to worry that Iran seeks Israel's destruction.

"The Holocaust story -- people without a country, country without a people -- and portraying Zionists as wronged and oppressed are among the great lies of our age and the prelude to crimes and occupation," Ahmadinejad said.

... Iran likes to show off its advanced missiles because "it plays to the crowd -- it's a macho thing," said a senior Israeli official in Washington, who spoke on the condition of anonymity because he was not cleared to discuss such matters publicly. But the official said Iran would be unlikely to use its missiles in an attack because of the certainty of retaliation.

What I take from this: Iran's list is pretty small. Actually, it's exactly the kind of stuff we did with the Sovs to make detente happen.

As always, Ahmadinejad plays with words on the so-called Holocaust denial: He does not refer to the actual Holocaust itself, but the storyline post-Holocaust that leads to the creation of the state of Israel, which he does not view as valid. His statements about "wiping Israel off the map" follow the same vein--i.e., he believes Israel's creation to be historically invalid (meaning, the Holocaust does not justify it).

In sum, I continue to be unimpressed with the great show that is Iran.

The hits just keep comin'

ARTICLE: Obama Starts 'Urgent Review' of U.S. Policy Toward Sudan, By JONATHAN WEISMAN, Wall Street Journal, MARCH 4, 2009

Everyone kept sending me the notice on the indictment, but this was the one I was waiting for.

It gets awfully hard for me to complain about Obama. The man is flat-out ambitious and visionary in a time of great crisis--the only way to lead.

And the calls?

Well, they keep coming.

And they're all good.

This one was easy to predict: Time to rejoin the world.

(Thanks: Russell Samuels)