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    by Thomas P.M. Barnett, Vonne M. Meussling-Barnett
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    The Emily Updates (Vol. 4): One Year in the Life of the Girl Who Lived (The Emily Updates (Vols. 1-5))
    by Thomas P.M. Barnett, Vonne M. Meussling-Barnett
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    The Emily Updates (Vol. 5): One Year in the Life of the Girl Who Lived (The Emily Updates (Vols. 1-5))
    by Vonne M. Meussling-Barnett, Thomas P.M. Barnett, Emily V. Barnett
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Entries from January 1, 2007 - January 31, 2007

3:46AM

Talking surge on WAPO radio

ARTICLE: With Iraq Speech, Bush to Pull Away From His Generals, By Michael Abramowitz, Robin Wright and Thomas E. Ricks, Washington Post, January 10, 2007; Page A01

Went on WAPO radio with Jim Bohannon yesterday morn for quick 5 minutes. Ended up talking new counter-insurgency and modularization of the army, even tough pre-interview with producer was all about troop surge strategy.

Here's (at least) what I said to the producer off-air:

1) I like the people picks of late (Gates, Petraeus, Fallon, Negroponte, McConnell).

2) I can support a surge, plus a Baghdad focus, plus new jobs-creation spending and more State oversight on the ground for reconstruction (though I fear CSIS Rick Barton's critique of too little, too late is true)

3) If all that was combined with a diplomatic initiative to dialogue on regional security issues with Syria, Iran, Israel and Palestine, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Lebanon, Turkey, the EU, Afghanistan, Pakistan, India, Russia and China (with all putting some skin in the game--either literal and figurative), THEN I'd be behind this 100 percent.

4) Absent 3 (or at least the talking part designed to start some permanent regional security forum), I have a hard time foreseeing success here.

5) For now, it's our lack of strategic imagination on diplomacy that's hurting most, and since I don't expect Bush to fire Rice, I think Bush is pretty much done with his presidency in terms of initiatives in foreign policy. To me, this is too much "stay the course" stll and not enough serious effort to keep the Big Bang rolling. In short, this is not a strategy to win, but one designed to keep not losing and basically pass this problem on to the next administration.

The one wild card left for me with Bush and Cheney is if they try a significant air strike on Iran before leaving office.

3:11AM

Transcript's up

The transcript from Tom's appearance on Hugh's show yesterday is now up, linked from this post where Hugh put up what he considered to be a key excerpt.

The excerpt I liked best was the first caller:


Dave: Thank you, Hugh. I want to thank you for having such a great guest, and having such a intelligent discussion on grand strategy. Iโ€šร„รดm a military officer, working long range strategic planning for a command that deals back, of course, with the Pentagon. And everything he said is right on about non-material versus material solutions. As soon as you start to try to make wide swings in non-material approach, or a different approach, you affect the juggernaut of the things that you purchase. I would like to make the point that often we do, we are able to make some changes, and they usually are coincident with other big social event, military event, something that you could tie to and justify. Heโ€šร„รดs right on there. Iโ€šร„รดm going to find your book, sir, and make it a part of my education. I appreciate you talking about things in grand strategy like instruments of power, like diplomatic, military, informational, economic, these are all very important things that tie into how we move our big, grand strategy forward, and Iโ€šร„รดm so tired in the media of hearing these simplistic bumper stickers, and somebodyโ€šร„รดs got another strategy, and they expect it to be all military or all information, or all diplomatic. I just thank you, Hugh, for bringing this great topic forward, and bringing this guest to the radio.

1:13AM

Audio's up

Here's the link to Tom's first full hour appearance on Hugh's show. I don't see a transcript yet.

Also, the thread Hugh put up has, again, some interesting comments and some not worth printing.

Finally, and I'll post this again next week, in those comments someone helpfully linked an AZ radio station where it looks like you can listen to Hugh live online, in case that's more convenient for you.

1:09AM

First full hour on Hugh's show

Felt okay about that first hour. Pretty jumpy in first section, and then made dedicated effort to slow down in subsequent ones.

The challenges: 1) adjusting to all that time! (I keep wanting to try and cover too much ground in one answer), and 2) dealing with one-off questions made possible by all that time (I will confess that I was thrown by the first question from Hugh on "what is grand strategy?" In hundreds of hours of interviews over the past three years, no one has ever asked me that question!

Deep down, I always feel like I suck after an appearance (you're never as good as you want to be, plus the weird subjective experience is very hard to judge in real time. I'll listen tomorrow and the first time it'll sound really bad. Then the second time it'll sound not too bad, and the third will actually sound okay.

Another reality: first hour-long radio for me in a long stretch (anything over 3 months is FOREVER!) So I expect to feel much more relaxed each week.

Weird bit: while you hear commercials, I get filler music and the voice of God announcing every 15 seconds that "the Hugh Hewitt show will return in X minutes and X seconds!" The countdown is a bit unnerving (should I run to the head and back? Should I practice an answer? Geeez! NOW I have a better answer to that last one!).

Confession: 9 total hours of sleep Sun and Mon nights, due to incredibly early flights in morning. That made it tougher (I am always a bit vaguer when low on sleep).

Best news? Appreciation of both callers and Hugh's producer on my effort and format.

Lesson? You try your best no matter what and it usually works out.

1:04AM

Thornberry praises Tom

ARTICLE: Before the surge, By Michael Scherer, Salon, Jan. 9, 2007

Google wrote to tell me about this article that says Rep. Mac Thornberry ( (R-TX) 'praised' Tom and PNM at a Center for Strategic and International Studies Monday.

(Note: you have to agree to watch one short Flash ad to read the article for free.)

4:41AM

Tom on Hugh's show today!

Don't forget, Tom will be on Hugh Hewitt's show today, the 2nd hour, to talk about chapter 1 of PNM. I'll post the audio and transcript links as soon as I get them.

4:27AM

Briefing CJTF-HOA

ARTICLE: U.S. Strike in Somalia Targets Al-Qaeda Figure, By Karen DeYoung, Washington Post, January 9, 2007

Interesting timing for me personally on the Somalia strike by our forces out of Djibouti, because I spent yesterday afternoon briefing 100-plus command element officers of Combine Joint Task Force-Horn of Africa in their Mission Rehearsal Exercise (their prep before heading over) at Joint Forces Command in Norfolk, VA. I then went out for a long dinner with the senior-most officers, enjoying a great discussion.

What CJTF-HOA is doing is the most advanced expression of the SysAdmin concept, which is why I was brought in (although, as always, they demanded a name change, which always makes me laugh--like I care what they call it!). Abizaid has routinely described CJTF-HOA as the future of the Long War.

But what impressed me most about these men and women was how strongly they believed, and how cognizant they were, that they were making history by forging new levels and forms of interagency and international cooperation.

Naturally, it was very interesting to discuss with them their perceptions of the Chinese in Africa.

All in all, an amazing day that left me feeling proud and honored to have participated in my own grand strategic way (meaning, I was awfully high-level compared to the rest of the MRX, which is painstakingly specific in its training across a host of very complex subject matter, replete with a senior retired flag mentor with extensive in-theater experience). In that sense, I was sort of the strategic pep talk.

Sitting with the flags that afternoon during some of the detail work. I got a bit nervous that my stuff would seem too esoteric, but "pep talk" isn't a facetious phrase on my part, because it was a fairly rocking audience (admittedly, in part because of the humor, which is designed for mil audiences because it's been with them that I grew up intellectually) for a 1600-1800 brief after a day starting at 0800. But judging by all the smiles and vigorous handshakes afterwards, people were really psyched by the material, which on some level never ceases to amaze me.

I guess everybody who does this sort of stuff truly hungers to feel and understand the larger strategic implications of their efforts and sacrifices.

It is--in short--very deeply connecting.

Then again, the WAPO story is about guys getting very deeply disconnected, but that only emphasizes that the SysAdmin function will always include direct action as required (with those SOF guys who never go "off-season").

4:24AM

Another way Iran is like Brezhnevian USSR

ARTICLE: Huge cost of Iranian brain drain, By Frances Harrison, BBC News, January 8, 2007.

Fascinating. According to the IMF, out of 90 countries it recently examined, Iran has the biggest brain drain going on. Informal estimates of students taking exams designed to facillitate their departure suggests a dramtic increase since Ahmadinejad came to power in 05.

Sound like a country on the rise? Or--again--does it remind you of late Brezhnevian USSR?

Thanks to Bryan Wilson for sending this in.

8:09AM

I stand corrected on the specifics of Israel... [updated]

...but as a result am more worried than ever about its long-term prospects

Thanks to commenters' inputs on a previous post concerning the details of citizenship in Israel, I withdraw much of my criticism--both implied and explicit--regarding the current state of formal laws discriminating against non-Jews living within Israel proper (the most recent post). The situation seems more defined by informal means than "ones on the books," so the comparisons (interally, at least) are more contemporary when it comes to U.S. history (like civil rights for African-Americans over the past several decades, which is why Israel's supreme court is such a crucial player).

This new knowledge makes me more understanding of why Israel is so nervous about the long-term demographics (the enlightenment of laws created decades earlier didn't foresee the demographic shift--save the specifically crafted Law of Return).

Internally, I would expect the pervasive informal discrimination to get worse over time, to include--as we see here in the States with Hispanics and other immigrants--increasing attempts to formalize into law new mechanisms (beyond the Law of Return) whose aim is to preserve clear majority status for Jews over the long term.

I know a lot of observers argue that Israel's policies in the West Bank and Gaza are heavily colored by this long-term fear (the focus of Carter's book), and I would expect those strategies to get more explicit and obvious over time as well--although it's hard to beat the security fence for explicitness (as we are soon to find out ourselves).

Thomas Friedman (among others) pushes the interesting historical analogy that the Israeli-Palestinian conflict is to the Long War (actually, I think he's still running with the "world war-something" crowd) what the Spanish Civil War was to WWII: a proving ground.

To the extent this proves true, Israel's attempts to stave off the unfavorable demographic trends may well presage Europe's, where I believe scale factors and assimilation capacity are far more favorably arrayed--for Europe.

In that way, whatever perversion of Israel's democratic tradition unfolds (e.g., recent rough talk from a senior official about loyalty oaths and deportations) may well serve to dissuade Europe from similarly desperate measures, thus elevating the utility of political co-optation through the accepted rise of Muslim immigrant-focused parties that are progressively mainstreamed (in Israel, such a progression would need to occur within an overarching one-state solution that seems fantastic from today's vantage point).

In short, not every "proof" need presage similar bad choices or tactics or outcomes elsewhere. We've seen Israel educate us positively in the past on many related security issues. Maybe it can do the same negatively regarding what should and should not be tried in pursuit of perserving a nation's perceived cultural birthright/identity.

Conversely, it's no surprise that a demographically rich Core country like China has the easiest time arguing (and to a lesser extent, practicing) policies of cultural "noninterference" abroad (even as it can be rather ruthless about such matters in its internal "frontier" areas). When you've got surplus bodies and spend most of your time trying to control population growth, you look at the world differently--i.e., you naturally think of an expanding frontier and not a fenced-off gated community.

This is why I argue for turning the immigration "threat" on its head--as in, why not get back into the business of adding more states and keeping America open for new members?

Suffice it to say, that the Gap's frequently frightening demonstrations of civilization's thin veneer in their own countries typically scares the hell of us in the Core, convincing many--in the manner of Mark Steyn--that the West is "doomed " unless we systematically mirror-image the perceived threat instead of remaining true to what got us strong in the first place and retaining more faith in the resilience of our political, social and economic cultures.

Hmm, looking over this post I find even more interesting things to think about regarding the film "Children of Men," which is an extreme depiction of such fears (no babies presages end times for civilization). I'm definitely going to have to read P.D. James' original novel.

Further thoughts:

Of course, I stand ready to instantly recant any portion of this post that's patently "untrue!" As I learned long ago on the subject of Israel-v-Palestinians, "insurmountable facts" can be amassed for all conceivable positions!

And if my flip style offends, then please move along, because this is a blog, not a press release. I know a lot of people take their (and others') blogs very seriously (and I welcome their patient lecturing), but I--unfortunately--do not.

I write this blog only for myself, because that's what works best for me. So I'm more than happy to offend, screw up, misstate, or just plain get it wrong, because this is the space where I do that.

When I want to be more careful, I write a column, or beyond that an article, or beyond that books. The blog sits at the bottom of that foodchain, where richness is held supreme and reach is--quite frankly--ignored.

And yes, by such statements I am rehashing old, touchstone arguments that I've employed here many times in the past. Why? The assumption that Hewitt's interviews are triggering any influx of new blog readers.

Strange sort of welcome, I know,but better to be straightforward from the start, no?

6:11AM

Why Tom?

Dean Barnett, Hugh Hewitt's co-weblogger, has a post today entitled Why Barnett?. In it, Dean answers a question he's been getting from readers: โ€šร„รบHow come Hugh is focusing on this guy [Tom] when heโ€šร„รดs wrong about (fill in the blank)?โ€šร„รน

Dean and Hugh and Tom disagree about many things, I'm sure. Dean pointed out the Packers and Favre. But Dean's short reason is '"The Pentagonโ€šร„รดs New Mapโ€šร„รน is a powerful piece of intellectual software.' Check out the whole post and the comments.

2:03PM

"Not worried about Iran getting nukes..."

As those who warn Hugh Hewitt against engaging me in interviews describe my position on Iran.

Isn't it amazing that a guy who supported (and still supports) the war in Iraq and advocates regime change in North Korea is so easily characterized as some surrender monkey on Iran simply because I have the unfortunate tendency to point out that there's nothing we can or will do militarily against Iran before it gets the bomb--primarily because of the Iraq tie-down?

Even better is the notion that I want to "give Taiwan to the commies" (as if we can find any in China nowadays) simply because I don't want to see our entire military force structure held hostage to this fantastically defined requirement and would prefer to exploit China's already large presence inside the Gap for our own purposes (no, no, please don't offer any grand strategy like that when we prefer focusing our entire long-term acquisition strategy on the high-end Taiwan scenario, no matter how many Marines and Army that kills between now and that mythical date!).

Too often in the blogosphere, being a hawk is confused with advocating military interventions in all occasions, no matter how fantastic the prospect.

And that is a sad reflection of the state of our current public dialogue on grand strategy, which consists of primarily "over [somebody else's] dead body" versus "cut and run."

Being a grand strategist ain't about telling you what you want to hear. It's about telling you what you need to hear.

1:29PM

On the other hand...

Thought about this some more while skating at a rink with my kids, hip hop pounding through my skull (which actually helped with the in-line skating, which is harder than it looks).

The bit about countries competing for citizens in the future like cities do inside America today got me thinking that maybe Israel does speak to the future of globalization more than I give it credit for (so tied is it in regional security issues).

There's no question that Israel is one of the most globalized economies and societies in the world. It really has no choice, given the regional hostility and the small size of its market (it's like . . . a major U.S. city). To start a business in Israel means you've gotta set your sights on so much more than Israel if you have any ambition for growth.

Thus, by all descriptions, Israel's got a risk-tolerant entrepreneurial environment second only to the U.S. (really, it's the two of us and the rest of the world), and frankly, for this Gentile (who never felt more Catholic than the moment when I met my Jewish girlfriend's father my freshman year in college and realized that no matter what she or I felt, this relationship was never going to go anywhere), that's my biggest attraction to the country (and why I think, along with its liberated women, it scares its neighbors so).

So you think about an Israel and it's almost like a bedroom community within globalization: doesn't really have much to do with the neighborhood and other than a minimal domestic focus (the basics of life), its economy is largely outwardly focused. I mean, clearly, Israel's located there because of the Holy Lands, but other than that, Israel as a concept of concentrating the world's Jews could be anywhere (Ron White's got a funny bit on that).

So putting aside the religious conflict issue, maybe Israel's a poorly appreciated model of what ethnic enclaving might eventually look like in the future: bedroom communities that attract specific ethnic groups with the promise of gated-community security. "Come here and be among your own!"

Maybe we'll see states somewhat superseded by these ethnically-shaped urban entities.

What triggered this thought, which I toss out like everything else in this blog (not to offend, but to share in real-time [or, "pontificate on" according to those whom I fear take this blog--and blogs in general--too seriously]), is the personal realization that I'm living right now in a state I would not otherwise choose (no offense to Indiana), and the reason why I'm living here is my wife's mother. "I married the eldest daughter," is my usual reply to the question, "why did you pick Indiana?"

Admittedly, Indianapolis is a bedroom community as far as I'm concerned. I don't really work here, although we pay taxes, buy stuff from local vendors, and have our kids go to school here. But truth be told, we're here primarily according to the Meussling family's "law of return," which is a fairly universal one: marry the eldest daughter and you better expect to live within a short drive of your mother-in-law about the time she approaches retirement age.

Frankly, we're sort of odd ducks here: pretty liberal couple (although the Dems can't really stand me for my foreign policy views) living in a Red Sea, where I couldn't even find a Democrat to vote for in local elections (because none were running)! So yeah, I sort of feel for Israel on that basis, and maybe now I'm wondering if their model is more workable than I realized.

Of course, none of this logic erases the underlying demographic threat Israel faces. I'm just suggesting that Israel's fate is perhaps far from historically sealed.

Plus, I guess I just wanted to end this series on a more hopeful note.

12:14PM

Tom around the web

5:36AM

Another spiral development attempt on the Carter book controversy

In my last post on the subject, several commenters took offense with my intermingling of race and religion with regard to Israel, i.e., that it's wrong to call Jews a race (I didn't actually say that, but implied it by saying the state of Israel seeks to maintain a single racial/religious identity).

Clearly, it's an occupational hazard to be the horizontal thinker who skips across subjects and is willing to share first-draft thinking, virtually live. And in this increasingly intolerant intellectual environment we find ourselves in, where the new motto seems to be, "saying sorry isn't enough," one risks banishment by all sorts of people every time you open your mouth

So I asked myself, "was that just sloppy on my part (I am constantly guilty of universalizing everything as a top-down, big picture thinker) or do I see Israel's identity based not merely on a religious affiliation argument but also on a blood argument?"

And my answer is, I honestly believe that I do see the Israeli argument based on blood as well as religion: the notion that "natural" Jews are biologicals (to borrow a phrase from the world of adoption; here, simply defining "natural" as being by birth). If your mother is a Jew, you're naturally a Jew. Doesn't mean you'll follow the faith, but it does mean you're automatically qualified for membership. If your mom isn't Jewish, then you have to convert. You have to choose the faith.

And that's different from my faith (Catholicism), because having a Catholic mom doesn't get you anything in Catholicism. You get a children's pass with baptism, but then you're required to redeclare your faith at various stages or you're out, no matter who your mom is. You really can't be Christian by birth

If the blood tie is meaningless in Christianity, it does seem to mean a lot in Judaism (there are Christians, but not really a Christian "people"; if you're not a practicing Christian, you're not Christian, but if you're not a practicing Jew, are you not still considered Jewish?), so clearly there's a mingling of racial and religious identity, and that's seen in the Law of Return, a profound mechanism designed to attract as many Jews as possible to the homeland from the various locations (and yes, from various ethnic identities achieved through intermarriage) reached by Jews scattered in the historical diaspora. That law allows (by my knowledge) converted Jews to emigrate to Israel, but it does not allow non-Jews to emigrate to Israel and Israel restricts full citizenship to Jews. So if my mom's Jewish, I've got the free pass to Israeli citizenship, but if she's not and I marry a Jew, then I can't manage citizenship unless I convert.

To me, that whole story allows Israelis to define themselves in both a racial manner (blood ties trump) and religious (converts are welcome) manner, so it gets a bit disingenuous to say Jews are not defined somehow by race even though self-identification can be proven primarily on the basis of blood ties (i.e., my mom's Jewish). Then again, it's clear that Jews exist, with their bloodlines, across numerous racial groups, and maybe the matrilineal aspect accounts for that.

Moreover, the historical basis for Israel as a state is to recollect that tribe that got spread all over the planet in centuries past, and it doesn't get much more racial than that. It's just that, starting with Israel's birth in the late 1940s, and given all this time, to engage in the process of re-concentrating some portion of the Jewish tribe is to accept that many come back looking like people from the world over (due to past intermarriage and cultural assimilation). That reality does make Israel a multi-racial society, and yet the undeniable ethnic-specific reality also exists: non-Jews need not apply.

I imagine it's the peculiarities of this complex argument that gives rise to a special name for being anti-Jewish, because calling it "racist" would seem to offer more confusion than understanding.

I know I'm taking profound points of self-identity (often held to the point of irrationality by many) and treating them as so many trade-able items. I make no bones about being casual in this manner, which I consider to be the essence of being American. And I readily stipulate than anyone's group identities are always perceived by that person as being far more profound than any outsider can understand. That's just the nature of the beast.

But I will confess a certain ambivalence on such things, and--again--that marks me as hopelessly American. For example, I am the only member of my family to date who's married a non-Catholic (the daughter of a Congregational minister, no less) who converted just before the wedding to make my parents happy. When, years later, we were fighting my first-born's cancer, we very casually switched from a Catholic parish to an Episcopalian one for a couple of years (baptizing our first son as an Episcopalian, which my parents took as a profound departure but which meant essentially nothing to me). Later on, when our kids got to grade-school age, we discovered we weren't rich enough to be Episcopalians (or at least pay for their version of parochial schooling), although, quite frankly, I would be surprised if I left this world a practicing Catholic, because (even more frankly), I love my wife more than Catholicism, which I don't confuse with my belief in God (which is profound) but rather consider one formal rule set for practicing that faith (and frankly, the Episcopalians got a cooler rule set). As for my ethnic identity, none of that blood stuff really holds anything for me, and whatever self-identity those ties gave me evaporated when we adopted a Chinese daughter. In the end, I consider my identity as overlapping and synthetic and flexible as that of these United States, which is why I consider this country the greatest place in the world to live and be whomever you want to be, aka, the pursuit of happiness.

So yeah, you can have an Arab Jew as president of Israel, but it would seem unlikely you could ever have a non-Jew as the president of Israel. Members of the Knesset, sure, but I don't see how Israel could allow them to become anything beyond a small minority. And that's a fundamental difference between what we call democracy and what Israel calls a democracy. Yes, there was a time when we claimed we had a democracy in which your black skin ruled out the possibility of your citizenship (your blood is "wrong"), and that was profoundly wrong. Of course, it would also be profoundly wrong to say you couldn't be a citizen of our country if you didn't believe in our officially sanctioned state religion (your faith is "wrong").

But you know what (as I anticipate the comments...)? It would still be wrong if your state combined those two notions in the following manner: you can become a citizen if your blood checks out, or if you convert to our implied state religion, but if you're not blessed in the first instance and unwilling to comply in the second instance, then you're automatically disqualified from membership in our country, because we have a collective identity to protect.

Now, if I'm wrongly interpreting what it takes to be an Israeli citizen, somebody please correct me and much of this post's logic will gladly dissolve, but it's long been my impression that only Jews (defined by blood or faith) are eligible to become full citizens of the state of Israel. If a Muslim resident living within the areas Israel controls enjoys all the same citizenship and political participation rights as any Jew living there, then I withdraw this post entirely and confess my profound ignorance on this particular subject.

But clearly, because of the diaspora, Israel's been able to build an amazingly globalized society that's a shining example of what needs to happen throughout the Arab world/Middle East, something I written about many times in the past. It has achieved a very decent and noble form of democracy as well, despite the implied political apartheid between those considered real citizens and those people who just happen to live there (Carter's attempted point). In many ways, then, Israel is a model for globalization, like the United States.

But none of that changes the underlying reality that Israel's identity as a state is built on a combined blood tie/religious identity of its people, and to me (and this has been my point all along in these posts), that gets a lot harder over time as globalization penetrates the region and demands economic and social and political change from the countries there (and no, I would expect Israel to make any great progress on this front absent similar movement by the countries around it, because that would be asking too much; then again, that harsh reality suggests that a region-wide security-political dialogue is therefore all the more necessary if states are going to make these progressions in tandem).

And as I've written before, I don't think Israel's plight is particularly unique in that way. I think France is being forced to redefine its Frenchness, with the underlying driver being demographics. The same thing is happening in Japan, a notoriously insular, racially-specific nation.

God knows it's been happening here in the United States since the beginning of our nation. But the key thing that's saved us throughout (but not without our share of bloodshed) is the founding vision that there be a separation of church and state. Jews can apply for full citizenship here. So can Muslims. So can Christians. So can anybody.

And that's why America, the most synthetic of racial identities (and yes, we're getting there on religion too, which is why you see so much resistance from the religious right) on the planet, is the best and most logical sourcecode for globalization's advance.

The same challenge facing all these states is also happening with my primary pre-American homeland: Ireland. Ireland's historical diaspora was and remains vast, as the island, through various forms of difficulties and oppression by others, has always been a place to leave, not to stay.

Now, as Ireland's successfully globalized its economy (which came with a clear diminution of the influence of the Catholic Church, meaning secularization), it confronts the strange reality that non-Irish want to immigrate there.

Now, ask yourself, what would it seem like if Dublin put forth a law stating that the only immigrants it would let in would be those with strong blood-tie Irish standing, and that the only people who could become full citizens would be those who could prove their Irish blood tie, or, if they couldn't, at least had to convert to Catholicism.

Would that seem racist?

My guess is that Ireland would be decried as racist the world over, or at the very least a systematic religious persecutor.

And if the Irish government, long persecuted both in their homeland and pretty much everywhere else they went originally as immigrants (they were routinely considered "non-whites" when they landed in America in the 19th century, for example), stated that it had the historic right to pursue these policies to retain the essential character of the Irish tribe and to counter-act those past historical sins, would that pass muster in most people's minds? Or would it come off as hopelessly backward for an era in which the movement of people--and their multiple identities--across borders seems historically destined to match the rapid and free movement of goods, services and intellectual content (all of which is bound up in multiple and overlapping identities) across borders?

Now take that thought and think again about the EU's apparent unwillingness to admit Turkey, and tell me that isn't basically the same deal: a combined blood-and-faith exclusion?

If that issue alone defined Israel, it probably get a free pass from everybody on the basis of past suffering, despite the fact that those who were asked to give up the most to make this rectification happen (the Palestinians), basically had nothing to do with the Holocaust (Ahmadinejad's snarky jab). And I mean that seriously, because world history is crammed with people driven from original lands. Frankly, that is human history, to include our treatment of basically every other species on the planet.

But clearly something had to be done in the aftermath of World War II, so the world goes along with the creation of the state of Israel, and now you have only the most recalcitrant fighting the notion that Israel has a right to exist. Not a perfect solution, but--historically speaking--it beat the alternative.

And again, if that's all there was, the problem would seem much smaller.

But because of the dynamic by which Arab neighbors tried repeatedly to dissolve Israel through war, Israel grew by land expansion in defensive retaliation. And through time, some of that expansion has been effectively recognized (the whole argument about the 1967 borders, for example).

And here, the dynamic is not unlike the sort of "defensive acquisition" claimed by America vis-a-vis Native Americans as our country expanded across the 1800s, a long and bloody history in which whites repeatedly struck out against Native Americans after the latter began retaliating for progressive incursions into lands previously declared off-limits to whites and to be kept in perpetuity for the natives. With each war, the white settlers would claim more Indian land, and the tribes would be forced to accept yet another treaty defining yet another off-limits land until Native Americans were so cowed and decimated that only a fragment of the original numbers retained their collective identity on the reservation system America created.

Nowadays, that historical wrong seems partially corrected by the special, nation-within-a-nation schemes that allow gambling to become legal on tribal lands. At least that's what we non-Native Americans tell ourselves.

But with Israel, the demographics are completely reversed: it's the Palestinians (both within Israel proper and in the West Bank and Gaza) who are having lotsa babies and it's Israel worrying about becoming demographically crowded out (the reality for Native Americans throughout the expansion of the U.S.). Naturally, it's much easier for a tribe that's having lotsa babies to keep up the fight, and when you add in the reality that Palestine (the historical geographic entity) is the home to sacred sites for three of the world's major religions (Judaism, Christianity, Islam), you've naturally got a lot of outside interested parties.

Fortunately, for Israel, it also has interested outside parties. As with any ex-pat (if you want to include all Jews who "left" the homeland centuries ago) population, the most vociferous and unblinking supporters for the cause back home are found inside the ex-pat group. Why? Guilt, pure and simple. That's why the IRA could tap Irish funders so easily in the U.S. all those years, and it's why the Jewish lobby in the U.S. is so strong. Hell, it's why it's not hard to find ex-pats always chomping at the bit for America to go topple that horrible dictator back home (our Iraqis, our Iranians, our Cubans--you name it). The blood tie, no matter how time passes, is typically very easy to tap ("If you were a true X, you'd be fighting for your people's freedom back home right now, so the least you can do is give money/political support/etc."). The American Jewish lobby is hardly unique in this regard, just very successful. And if you say that's only because money talks, well then I say, welcome to America!

And I say that with no cynicism whatsoever, because our democracy has always been fed by our market success, far more than the other way around, so it's only natural that political influence reflects economic success. Worked for my Irish. Working for the Indians (from India, that is) right now. As American as apple pie and Mom (not that the blood tie matters...).

Israel's also had the U.S. as a strong ally, because we feel profound guilt over the Holocaust (to wit, we've got a Holocaust memorial in the center of our capital, which is kind of weird by any reasonable measure, because last time I checked, that entire ugly show was based in Europe; and yet, our inaction was a clear sin, so there's some logic there; it's just so odd that the Native Americans couldn't get such a museum first), and because it only made sense for us to support a democracy in that sea of authoritarianism.

But back to my original point in this non-consecutive string of posts: Israel's got a real problem in trying to retain an exclusionary blood/religious identity in an era of globalization. And I make that point in the same manner I make the point about why the Israeli-Palestinian conflict changes nothing about the Arab world's problem with globalization (as in, remove Israel from the equation and the Middle East still sucks at globalization, and that's the real problem in the end--not Israel).

Remove Iran and its threat of nukes and Israel's still got a serious problem with retaining an exclusionary identity in a globalized world. Remove all the Palestinians and the problem's still there. Remove Islam as a whole and the problem's still there.

The problem is always still there because the world is moving inexorably toward a future of multiple and over-lapping identities for everyone, so that nation-states, in the logic of Juan Enriquez, will be increasingly defined--brand-wise--for the excellence of the services they provide. In a sense then, the same civic pride competition we've long had in America gets replicated the world over: "Live in France, where you'll never have to worry again about X, Y, and Z!" "If you lived in Iceland, you'd be home by now!"

In that future world, if your brand is self-limited ("Come live here, but only if your blood tie can be proven or you agree to our faith and no others!"), you will not survive--plain and simple (the basic pathway awaiting intolerant Islamic states). You'll shrink, others will grow, and eventually your claim to equal status with the rest of the world's identities (currently called nations) will fall by the wayside. You can say, "they'll just have babies like crazy to surive," but then you look at Iran, and it's clear that authoritarianism begets unhappiness and unhappiness ain't great for making babies.

Citing this profound challenge for Israel is not to pretend Israel's the only nation facing it. The entire world is facing this challenge. In the future, we'll see nations fade away just like languages fade away--unless they synthesize and abandon exclusionary practices.

I tend to have very low thresholds for liking books: if the volume contains one idea that triggers new thinking in my head, I like that book, no matter how many flaws others may see in it. For that reason, I'm glad Jimmy Carter wrote his book, because it's triggered a lot of thinking in myself and a lot of debate among others that I think is both useful and long-needed.

Yes, Carter's attempts to further debate will be attacked by Israel's strongest supporters in that sort of all-or-nothing way that they've always employed against anyone who raises any criticisms of their beloved country. Like another tight tribe, known as the Marines, Israel's self-awareness of its vulnerability as an institution makes it (and its supporters) close ranks like few collective identities in the world when it senses danger. Such strong supporters will attack any argument with the justification that "if we give them an inch, they'll take a yard."

I understand that logic. I just think it'll get increasingly harder for Israel's supporters to maintain it in the future, because globalization enables and promotes individual identity, not tribal identity. So states that maximize their citizens' potential for self-growth and creativity through multiple and overlapping individual identities will flourish, and those that restrict their pool of fully functioning citizens through exclusionary race-and-or-religious-based discriminatory practices will eventually marginalize themselves because the costs involved will poison their societies.

In that sense, Israel truly is a Core-like state trapped in a larger Gap reality.

Do I extend that dire analysis to Jews the world over? Hardly. Again, I think individual identities survive just fine in this globalized world, and there will be concentrations of identity in every state. People simply like to self-select geographically speaking. I just don't see states surviving along these lines, no matter what their historical justifications (just watch Utah lose its Mormon-ness progressively with time).

On the other hand, that's why faith in America's future knows no bounds.

As with all posts, this one is subject to further adjustment depending on what I learn and how my thinking changes. So I thank everyone again for commenting on previous posts, even as I note that ones decrying even worse situations in neighboring countries only state the obvious (which I believe I've stipulated in print more than most) and divert my argument for no useful purpose (last time I asked the Lord, pointing to another's sins does not justify your own).

3:00AM

"Children of Men" is the best future dystopian movie I've ever seen

So good it would seem weird to me that it might not get any Oscar nods.

I have long maintained that "1984" (with John Hurt and Richard Burton) was the best ever, but this one tops that by a ways.

Extremely compelling, fantastic set design and production values. Great acting. You really care about the characters deeply and have no idea what's going to happen.

I've long admired the director, Alfonzo Cuaron, since I saw his breakout film (Y tu mama tambien) with my wife at the Newport Film Festival (he also did the last and best "Harry Potter," so he impresses across many styles, like a Ridley Scott).

Other than "The Departed," best thing I've seen all year.

12:34PM

Nightcap

Another eventful day here on the weblog: Hewitt stuff, Tom catching up, etc. A couple more links and I'm going to try to put the posts to bed for tonight.

Yesterday I linked Dean Barnett's post on Hugh's weblog about Tom's appearance. I was pleasantly surprised to find a number of the comments to be complimentary of Tom or at least open to learning more. Up to 24 comments now. Of course, some of the comments aren't worth printing.

And, finally, not only did Tom post articles today, he posted quite a few comments, too. You might go check them out. I mention our current highest comment thread: Demographics is destiny - for Israel too, up to 15 comments.

See you in the morning!

10:46AM

Weird, but apparently Amazon found some hardcover PNMs

Now ranked at about 1k.

Guess they checked the backroom this afternoon.

10:44AM

Heading out...

Caught up on the articles as much as I could.

Hitting a steakhouse tonight with the missus and eldest son. Then it's "Children of Men" from a favorite director of ours.

Go Colts!

10:30AM

Ahmadinejad's post-presidency not that far on the heels of Bush's

PERISCOPE: "A Brewing Battle of Heavyweights in Tehran," by Maziar Bahari, Newsweek, 8 January 2007, p. 8.

I've made the case that Bush's post-presidency began with Katrina, but I think Bush-taunting Ahmadinejad's ain't much further behind, especially after the Iranian parliament voted to shorten his term! Ahmadinejad's real time at the plate looks like it will last less than two years, by this judgment.

The analysis here speaks for itself:

Iranians are deserting the president they elected by a landslide in June 2005. Not only did university students heckle Mahmoud Ahmadinejad with chants of "Death to the dictator!" during a speech last month in Tehran, state-run TV had the temerity to report it. Some of his own supporters criticized his recent international gathering of Holocaust revisionists as harmful to Iran's national interests. And thanks to his economic flubs, Iranians are grumbling about inflation instead of reveling in an oil-boom windfall. Iranian TV reported that news, too, and when Ahmadinejad complained about the story, the network's director (a former ally) replied: "We just tell the truth." The legislature has stopped rubber-stamping the 50-year-old president's decisions, and the latest local elections cost him all but two of his allies on Tehran's 15-seat city council. The big winner: his pothole-filling, street-cleaning successor as mayor of Tehran, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, 45.

Ghalibaf, the article goes on, is already casting a shadow over Ahmadinejad's presidency as the 2009 election looms in the distance. No, he's not some messiah reformer. Same basic package of conservative, just far more pragmatic and willing to deal to get things done. Got a PhD in geopolitics. Famous now for quelling a student protest by holding talks with the leaders and okaying a needle exchange program for Tehran's many drug addicts.

Ghalibaf could have been prez in 2005, but reached out too much to moderates while Ahmadinejad courted the hardliners. Interesting to see how well that's worked out now, isn't it?

Another good example of why calling Iran totalitarian is wrong. It's a rancid old authoritarianism that's got more skulldugging internal politics than we understand, much less take advantage of. We've got to get smarter on this country. We focus on one thing (WMD) and as a result we're getting played by Tehran across the dial.

Their fox v. our hedgehog, but fortunately for us, not the smartest fox in town.

10:27AM

Why Ford's post-mortem on Bush hurt

It hurt because the guiding hands (as I note in this weekend's column) given to Bush the Younger by the GOP establishment were all Ford guys (Cheney, Rumsfeld) or their proteges (Scowcroft's Powell and Rice).

I have often joked in the brief about Bush's team being a bunch of retreads from the Ford Administration (their formative period, no doubt) and often gotten confused giggles from the audience. But I think after Ford's funeral, the connections became clear to most people.