Wikistrat's Egypt Scenarios Dynamic Grid--Voting over time (graphs

Percentage on vertical axis, hours along horizontal.

Unfolding Pathways

• Military's tightening grip (42%) (39%) (36%) (37%)
• Mubarak's many slips (16%) (19%) (23%) (24%)
• Protests' explosive rip (33%) (30%) (22%) (21%) (22%)
• Movement's steady drip (9%) (13%) (16%) (19%) (18%)

My upshot:  Fast and furious, with a military play eventually.

UPDATE: "Rip" scenario falling into third place, so less expectation of speed and more of Mubarak-dumped-by-military feeling.

Regime Response

• Big man steps down (40%) (39%) (41%) (38%) (37%) (36%) (37%)
• (Next military) man up! (26%) (22%)  (31%) (32%) (34%) 
• Systemic crack down (26%) (32%) (19%) (21%) (20%)
• Oppositions leaders hunted down (9%) (7%) (9%)

My upshot:  Expectation that Mubarak must go, but that systemic response will follow to reestablish some control once he's thrown to wolves.  Amazing to me:  just days ago most US experts on Egypt said the security system would hold (as in, hunt them down).

UPDATE:  Falling "crack down" and rising "military man" solution, but Mubarak going holds steady.

US Response

• "Too preliminary to take a stand" (47%) (51%) (54%) (53%) (54%)
• "Let me be the first to shake your hand!" (24%)  (23%) (22%) (21%)
• "I'm with the Band" (of Netizens) (21%) (17%)  (20%) (21%) (20%)
• Stand by your man! (9%) (7%) (5%) (4%)

My upshot:  Standing by Mubarak too incredible, so US hanging back and then embracing new (probably interim) authority figure is expected.

UPDATE: Rising verdict on US inaction.

Regional Responses

• Frantic firewalling (35%) (34%) (39%) (36%) (38%)
• Dominoes keep falling (21%) (22%) (23%) (23%) (22%) (26%)
• Head-in-sand stalling (23%) (24%)  (25%) (23%)  (26%) (21%)
• Tehran comes calling (21%) (20%) (19%) (16%)  (15%)

My upshot:  Expectations that now any further vulnerable regimes truly harden out of fear.

UPDATE:  Very steady.  More a downstream bit, so makes sense.

Global Responses

• "Who lost Egypt?" (42%) (43%) (42%) (39%)
• "We are all Egyptians now!" (28%) (26%) (28%) (29%) (30%)
• "Let my people go!" (28%) (26%) (25%) (28%)
• "Boycott Pharaoh's cotton (2%) (6%) (5%) (4%) (3%)

My upshot: Almost nobody sees this dragging out long enough for sanctions, just the opposite.

UPDATE:  Similar to regional.  Although I remain amazed that the regret statement is persistently highest.  Suggests the system's nerves outweigh its hopes.

Tipping Points

• Viennese sausage-making (40%) (45%) (46%)
• That iconic photo of ElBaradei on a tank (19%) (17%) (21%) (22%) (21%) (25%)
• "Murderers row" press conference (35%) (31%) (26%) (24%) (26%) (21%)
• First UN sanctions against newest "rogue regime" (7%) (9%) (8%)

My upshot:  International arbitrage most likely outcome, but with military buy-in (military is large, powerful and popular, as the Scenario Dynamics Grid notes)

UPDATE:  Rising combo of negotiated deal + ElBaradei, with military-in-front scenario declining.

Exit Glidepath

• Think Turkey, now (35%) (39%) (43%) (49%) (53%) (52%)
• Think Pakistan, anytime (23%) (22%) (32%) (27%) (24%) (25%)
• Think Iran, 1979 (23%) (24%)  (12%) (13%) (14%)
• Think China, 1989 (19%) (15%) (14%) (11%) (10%) (9%)

My upshot: Mubarak's China model moment has passed (too little, too late), and there's more fear of a Pakistan or Iran path (in aggregate) than the more stable Turkish one.  If I'm Israeli, I guess I'm not particularly enamored with any of that.

UPDATE:  To me, the most interesting shifts, as Turkey rises (to me, hopeful sign), as does Pakistan (scarier), but Iran dropping (and that's scariest to me).