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Monthly Archives
10:59PM

The great Ronnie Chan speaks on rebalancing--Asian style

COMMENT: "The west's preaching to the east must stop," by Ronnie Chan, Financial Times, 4 January 2010.

Chan is a fascinating guy whom I met at the Davos regional meeting off the coast of NE Australia (near the Great Barrier Reef) on a tiny resort island (chronicled long ago in the blog--okay, August 2007). He was very appreciative of my speech and various panels appearances, and I returned the favor regarding his after-dinner remarks one evening.

A very sensible guy.

A lot of standard stuff in this piece, with the true calling card being the moral "rebalancing" argument. As much as Asia must adjust to globalization more than globalization will adjust to it (true for any region), the world as a whole will adjust plenty due to Asia's immense bulk of humanity.

Asia's joining globalization made it a truly global phenomenon--the historic tipping point. What was just possible became inevitable; what was just Western became universal.

And that shift means we all turn a bit Japanese, Korean, Chinese, Indian and so on.

Should America fear such a shift, to include the morals (and please, no pre-judging there out of sheer ignorance)? God no. We've been blending civilizations here for centuries, pioneering globalization's rule sets in the process.

I say, bring it on, even as it saps our high-and-mightiness.

10:56PM

First the cellphones adapt to you, then you adapt to the cellphones

BRIEFING: "Mobile-phone culture: The Apparatgeist calls; How you use your mobile phone has long reflected where you live. But the spirit of the machines may be wiping away cultural differences," The Economist, 2 January 2010.

Starts off by noting that every culture seems to have a different name for cells, indicating how they came about or were originally appreciated as an advance. Then the piece explores how cells were, for quite some time, exploited very differently according to the idiosyncracies of the society in question--you know, the old bit about Japanese teenager being the "thumb generation" and how that would never happen here in visually-addicted America.

Except, of course, it did happen in rather quick time.

But still, plenty of social differences, as some cultures talk a lot more than others, with the US seemingly leading the pack by an obscene amount (though nobody beats Puerto Ricans in particular, for some reason).

The piece wraps up by noting that thinking on cell phones is now moving away from the theories that say culture rules. James Katz at Rutgers argues, Jungian-style for a sort of globalized spirit of the machine (Apparatgeist):

Regardless of culture, when people interact with personal communication technologies, they tend to standardize infrastructure and gravitate towards consistent tastes and universal features.

One would assume a generational process is at work, as in, they are those who adapt and those who are born to the new reality. Any parent can attest to this phenomenon.

Nokia says there are types, rather than geographies: the "simplicity seekers" versus "technology leaders" versus "life jugglers."

Yet another example of how technology and connectivity drive similar codes the world over, rendering humans more similar over time.

Boo hoo! Cry the Balkanization types.

10:54PM

The global economy moves on a woman's hips

LEADERS: "We did it! The rich world's quiet revolution: women are gradually taking over the workplace," The Economist, 2 January 2010.

BRIEFING: "Women in the workforce: Female power; Across the rich world more women are working than ever before. Coping with this change will be one of the great challenges of the coming decades," The Economist, 2 January 2010.

The Old Core's amazing achievement of near parity (in raw numbers, but not in terms of upward mobility in management ranks) only reminds us of the social revolution going on across the New Core and the friction-filled process just beginning throughout much of the Gap. The mag calls women's empowerment "the biggest social change of our times":

Societies that try to resist this trend--most notably the Arab countries, but also Japan and some southern European countries--will pay a heavy price in the form of wasted talent and frustrated citizens.

Most of the editorial and the briefing has to do with flexibility issues WRT having kids in advanced economies. I especially like the reference to how fascinating "Mad Men" is for its capture of the early 1960s' "casual sexism." It is the thing that really shocks you when you watch it, even as it awakens a lot of childhood memories.

Here's a "war" I can live with--in terms of hyperbole, the "war for talent" that will benefit women more than men across the Core.

I stick with my statement in Blueprint, that everything you need to know about a country (just like with a man), you can tell by how it treats its women.

The post title is adapted from both an old Talking Heads' lyric and an African proverb.

10:52PM

Taiwan's trade with China drives Ma's integration drive

ASIA: "Taiwan and China: Strait talking; Progress in talks with China is a mixed blessing for Ma Ying-jeou," The Economist, 2 January 2010.

Three technical agreements (fishing, industrial standards, ag product quarantine procedures) signed recently, but the big Economic Co-operation Framework Agreement (ECFA) is causing NAFTA-like concerns of giant sucking sounds. The big push on the ECFA will occur across the first half of 2010. It is described as the "cornerstone of Mr. Ma's cross-strait policies," even though he has--to date--"provided scant details."

Ma's fears? "Taiwan, already ravaged by the financial crisis, will be marginalized as a free-trade pact between China and the Association of South-East Asian Nations (ASEAN) takes effect this January." China pressures ASEAN states not to sign anything similar with Taiwan. Ma expects that to change with the ECFA.

Even without such calculations, says The Economist, China's markets are too attractive to ignore.

The accompanying chart tells the story: Chinese exports to Taiwan go from near-nothing in 1995 to the $20-25B range starting the middle of last decade, but Taiwanese exports go from about $12B in 1995 to between $75-100B since 2005.

Still, Ma will have a devil of a time getting the ECFA accepted inside Taiwan.

10:48PM

Some Haitians want to be 51

ARTICLE: As food distribution improves, Haitians want U.S to 'take over', By Peter Slevin, Washington Post, February 1, 2010

The usual tug of war ...

(Thanks: Jeff Jennings)

10:47PM

Scared old white man

OP-ED: Exit America, By ROGER COHEN, New York Times, January 28, 2010

Thank God that whiny Cohen isn't in charge of anything.

This is linear trajectoring on a truly moronic scale.

Nothing beats a scared old white man when it comes to fearing the future--nothing!

(Thanks: Stuart Abrams)

10:01PM

The boomers will continue to redefine stages of life--this time to our collective benefit

EDITORIAL: "The baby boomers come of old age: Live longer, work longer--and learn to be happy with it," Financial Times, 4 January 2010.

The sub-header said most of it: the Boomers will redefine the endpoint of careers (by delaying it like crazy) and the essential nature of retirement, and I expect many positive surprises. Other than politics, the Boomers have done this world a world of good.

The gist here: we move from a reality in which "what you want" determines who you are.

This shift arrived just in time.

11:01PM

The great Palmisano speaks of shining cities on the hill!

BUSINESS|INNOVATION: "The Future of the City: The chairman and chief executive of IBM on the change agents of the 21st century," by Samuel Palmisano, Newsweek, 25 January 2010.

I admire the way IBM's evolved over the past decade, and Palmisano has been a huge part of that, so when he talks, I listen.

First thing he notes: world went majority urban a few years back and will ring in at 70% by 2050, meaning we add seven New Yorks ever year.

So cities and their construction marks the nexus of crucial innovation. Get the mega-coastals down pat and you've mastered half the world's population and much of globalization's major networking and socializing and politics.

IBM's "smart cities" focus rests on transpo, energy & water, healthcare and education. In Palmisano's vernacular, it's all about standardizing interfaces to ensure our regs, policies, and institutions all encourage great openness and innovation--not hinder them. Otherwise needed resilience yields to brittleness.

Nice, smart little piece.

10:58PM

Private SysAdmin in Haiti

POST: Clarification of Criticisms, By Jake Wood, Team Rubicon, January 27, 2010

Interesting critical post from a private voluntary group of mostly former military that self-organized as a rapid response post-disaster team. Team Rubicon is in Haiti now, operating.

(Thanks: )

10:55PM

It's a world of laughter

ARTICLE: Genealogist: Obama, Mass. Sen.-elect Brown related, By GLEN JOHNSON, AP, January 29, 2010; 11:56 AM

OMG! Obama and Scott Brown, MA's new senator, are actually related?

10th cousins! Amazing! Who could have expected this momentous sign? I mean, this is now surely a political earthquake! Democrats and Republicans, (not to mention, white folks and blacks) sharing the same blood!?!?!?!?!

Makes you wonder how many millions of people out there are your 10th cousins, does it not?

Gosh, it really is a small world!

Score one for Walt Disney.

10:20PM

Africa's coming common markets

MIDDLE EAST AND AFRICA: "East Africa's common market: It really may happen; The region's leaders take another step towards building a common market," The Economist, 2 January 2010.

We are given to believe that good possibilities are emerging for an East African Community (EAC) that would unite Burundi, Kenya, Rwanda, Tanzania and Uganda--130m people.

Some serious dreaming and practical goals:

Faustin Mbundu, a Rwandan who chairs the East African Business Council, says the real benefits of the common market will accrue only with more and better roads, railways and power stations. Some say a new capital for the EAC must be built from scratch, perhaps on a shore of Lake Victoria, with a new international airport to match Nairobi's.

But simpler things will be needed a lot sooner. For instance, border crossing will have to be kept open at night. Mr. Mbundu wants to end the scourge of informal police checkpoints. Above all, the governments will have to avoid policy reversals that pander to their own industries, a tendency that has hitherto stood in the way of a proper common market.

One hopes Mr. Mbundu will resist any Faustian bargains.

10:19PM

Climate change: how we spend the money

NEW BUSINESS: "Measuring the Gas Without the Hot Air: Declared emissions are out of whack with the amounts researchers have observed," by John Carey, Bloomberg BusinessWeek, 11 January 2010.

Great line:

Monitoring is science's Cinderella, unloved and poorly paid," says one climate researcher.

10:16PM

The generational change coming on gay rights

VERBATIM: "I really don't feel that there's currently liberty and justice for all," by Will Phillips, Time, 28 December 2009-4 January 2010.

The source is 10-year-old Arkansas boy, Will Phillips, who "refused to cite the Pledge of Allegiance in school because he has gay friends who are not afforded equal rights."

Stand up young man! This country was born of such "unreasonableness"!

10:11PM

Another Georgia ad

ADVERTISEMENT: "Success Story of Georgia: IFIs and Emerging Markets," by His Excellency the Prime Minister of Georgia, Nika Gilauri, Financial Times, 31 December 2009.

Buzz phrases in bold: "reform-drive economic success" . . . "open and nondiscriminatory trade practice" . . . "robust banking sector" . . ..

It all sounds suspiciously like a former authoritarian state still trying to make capitalism work.

We still await the great Left-ward global lurch following the 2008-09 economic crisis.

Well, some of us do (sniff!).

Somebody! Fidel Castro fell out of his wheelchair and can't get up!

10:09PM

South Korea acting all grown up is good for everybody

WORLD NEWS: "S Korea to come of age with G20 leadership: Seoul is eager to cement its status as the capital of a developed economy," by Christian Oliver, Financial Times, 31 December 2009.

South Korea assumed the presidency of the G20 during the first week of 2010, capping off its long climb toward prosperity ($100 per capita in 1950s to about $20,000 today--the perceived worldwide limit on increased-happiness-through-rising-income).

Of course, its-separated-at-birth twin, enjoying its decades of disconnectedness, self-sufficiency and socialism, is a complete basket case full of malnutrition.

But, as we know from the 2008-09 crisis in capitalism, markets never did anything good for anybody. I await the Chomsky/Klein opus comparing the two systems.

10:08PM

With China, it's just business

ARTICLE: Clinton Urges Global Response to Internet Attacks, By MARK LANDLER, New York Times, January 21, 2010

I would see this as the most realistic and potentially least inflammatory tack to take with this issue:

Tom Malinowski, the Washington advocacy director for Human Rights Watch, said the United States should treat China's forced censorship as an unfair trade practice, which could be confronted through the World Trade Organization or raised in future trade negotiations.

China continues to portray the whole Google thing as a business issue, so why not run with it on that level? You say, "These are standard business practices around the world regarding search engines, but China is making its market hard to enter by making demands that are unreasonable and look suspiciously like a tactic to make it harder to challenge Beijing's preferred domestic provider, Baidu, a globally recognized competitor that we've welcomed to our NASDAQ, etc. If China is going to act in this protectionist manner at home, it will inevitably result in similar efforts by foreign governments to keep Chinese companies from penetrating their markets."

Ultimately, our arguments are about political liberty, but means-wise, this is all about economic liberty ("Will Western companies be shut out of competing in China's market?" "Will Chinese companies be ghettoized in this manner--by retaliation?"), so better to keep the discussion on that level.

10:05PM

Honduran crisis, quietly resolved

ARTICLE: Honduras: Ousted President Agrees to Leave, By ELISABETH MALKIN, New York Times, January 21, 2010

A seemingly quiet end to the whole Honduran political crisis, as Zelaya now accepts exile following the end of his term.

2:46PM

Coverage of Tom at the Mining Indaba Conference

Dateline: Cape Town, South Africa

ARTICLE: Anglo upbeat on Africa, By Brendan Ryan, miningmx.com, 02 Feb 2010

The part about Tom:

Thomas Barnett, MD of Enterra Solutions, who spoke on Africa's 'long future" in the global economy.

Barnett highlighted the rising interest of the United States in Africa as well as the growing presence of China looking to secure sources of supply of key commodities.

Barnett quipped that, 'my advice to African governments is to keep freaking those guys (the United States) out while charging these guys (China) as much as possible.'

11:42PM

How to really help Haiti

OP-ED: Building Haiti's Economy, One Mango at a Time, By PAUL COLLIER and JEAN-LOUIS WARNHOLZ, New York Times, January 28, 2010

A column I've been waiting to read, from a source I truly respect. A great opening:

IN an astonishing outpouring of generosity, nearly half of American households have donated money to help Haiti recover from the recent earthquake. The United States government and other governments around the world, for their part, have sent thousands of relief workers and have pledged $1 billion so far. But Haitians need something more fundamental than relief from the present situation; they need jobs that they can count on for years ahead. For this, the private business sector is essential. Luckily, business leaders are meeting now in Davos, Switzerland, and Haiti is prominent on their agenda.

Haiti is by far the poorest country in the Western Hemisphere, and yet it need not be so, because unexploited economic opportunities abound there. Some of the best mangoes in the world grow in Haiti -- though too many of them rot, offshore from the world's largest market, for want of adequate roads and well-governed ports. Excellent coffee is grown in the Haitian mountains, but much of it is sold informally across the border to coffee producers in the Dominican Republic, who reap most of the profits.

Even better for my eldest, there's a Johnny Depp angle(!):

Haiti also has many qualities attractive to tourists: a warm climate; magnificent white-sand beaches and turquoise water; Tortuga, the famous pirate island off the northern coast; and the Citadel, a mountain fortress erected after Haiti's independence in the early 19th century to fend off colonial powers, now a World Heritage site. Still, it is one of the least visited places in the Caribbean.

I can see the Disney resort already.

More seriously:

The Hope II trade pact with the United States, signed in 2008, granted Haiti duty-free access to the American apparel market for the next decade. Already, as a result of the deal, many garment factories situated along Haiti's eastern border (so as to use Dominican electricity and ports) have become profitable and competitive with Chinese garment makers. But light manufacturing could be much bigger in Haiti -- if the Haitian government and donors would credibly commit to providing functioning roads, electrical grids and ports, and if outside private capital would invest, patiently, in Haitian businesses.

Finally, the more sensible and realistic visions emerge.

And now, to the nitty-gritty, as we discovered in Kurdistan:

So, production costs are high because there are too few investors, and there are too few investors because costs are so high.

The way to address this chicken-and-egg problem is for individual private investors to coordinate with one another. This would not be a new strategy; in the 19th century, the American West was developed not as a process of gradual diffusion but in spasms of local investment booms, financed by enthusiastic outsiders. The earthquake could usher in such a boom in Haiti.

The key is setting up the sort of thing we ended up doing for the Kurds: a quasi-investment bank that works that coordination angle, keeping in mind the logical rule-chaining (if you want X, you need to set up Y first, etc.)

(Via WPR's Media Roundup)

11:36PM

The right kind of missile defense

ARTICLE: U.S. Speeding Up Missile Defenses in Persian Gulf, By DAVID E. SANGER and ERIC SCHMITT, New York Times, January 30, 2010

I heartily approve of close-in defenses and theater anti-missile efforts.

Very much on target, as opposed to that nonsense in Eastern Europe.