India and the Naxalites

ARTICLE: India's Internal Security Dilemma, By Mayank Bubna and Raj Shukla, World Politics Review, 14 Jan 2010

Nice overview piece on India's internal threat from the Naxalites.

That enduring reality is shifting India's military from its big-war obsession with Pakistan to something more appropriately subnational and COIN-oriented.

This is a huge and very positive development, which, as always with big bureaucracies, comes through pain.

Turkey continues to rock

ARTICLE: Turkey and Russia move closer to building strategic partnership, By FARUK AKKAN, Today's Zaman, 15 January 2010

Just where exactly ISN'T Turkey working toward some new, heightened level of strategic partnership?

A fascinating display of strategic ambition to witness. Turkey has stopped waiting on Europe and decided to become a great power on its own.

I think it's a hugely smart move.

(Via WPR's Media Roundup)

Globalizing Africa

ARTICLE: Ethiopia - country of the silver sickle - offers land dirt cheap to farming giants, By Xan Rice, The Guardian, 15 January 2010

A good, balanced capture of the promise and peril of the African trend to open itself to ag-focused foreign direct investment:

Ethiopia's great land lease project is moved swiftly ahead. In an effort to introduce large-scale commercial farming to the country, the government is offering up vast chunks of fertile farmland to local and foreign investors at almost giveaway rates. By 2013, 3m hectares of idle land is expected to have been allotted - equivalent to more than one fifth of the current land under cultivation in the country.

The move is part of a wider trend that has seen other African and Asian countries seek to take advantage of high global demand and the cost of crops by offering agricultural land to foreign companies, private equity funds and governments, particularly those of import-dependent Gulf countries.

If done properly, the investments have the potential to increase local food availability and create badly needed jobs. If not - as was the case with the attempt by the South Korean firm Daewoo to lease half of Madagascar's arable land to grow corn for export in 2008, a deal many saw as 21st- century colonialism - they could prove disastrous.

Again I ask, where is the deglobalization in this huge and compelling trend?

We are confusing friction (the historically meager "tide" of protectionism among the Core's great economies) with real force (the continuing reach by the New Core East and South to network themselves ever deeper into the Gap in the search for resources and--ultimately--cheap labor and new markets to exploit (a term I use with no normative implications).

(Via WPR's Media Roundup)

Deglobalization? Nope.

ARTICLE: Russia looking to expand oil markets in East, By MICHAEL RICHARDSON, Japan Times, Jan. 15, 2010

An interesting but unsurprising logic: Asia wants to limit its near-term dependency on the Middle East and Russia wants to do the same WRT its European markets.

The underlying reality to take away: Where is the deglobalization in this? Both Asia and Russia are diversifying their networks due to sound business and geopolitical logic.

(Via WPR's Media Roundup)

A night at the Guthrie

Cast performing in lobby after fabulous musical version of Noel Coward's "Brief Encounter"--see u on B'way soon enough.

A multimedia experiment of the highest order. Expect some Tonys! Tonys! Tonys!

Everybody plays instruments, sings, and most perf several roles.

Truly mesmerizing take on a profoundly sad play.

We saw it at the Guthrie in Minneapolis.

Tom in Nasr's new book

Tom appears at least once in Vali Nasr's new book, Forces of Fortune, according to an excerpt that ran in the Times.

Last page of the excerpt:

Deepening ties with global business forced China to change many laws and practices -- to adopt what the American geostrategic writer Thomas P. M. Barnett calls the transparent modern "rule sets" of the world's developed and well-integrated "core."

And here's a link to Michael Totten's review for the Times, in case you're interested.

Tom around the web

+ WarrenPearce tweeted the TED video.
+ Stavros embedded it.

+ Naval Open Source Intelligence linked The Awakening of Robert Gates.
+ House of Marathon cited Tom in a post on hybrid warfare.
+ Phil Windley tweeted China's damage is probably worse than we think.

Keep yours friends close, your enemies . . .

WORLD NEWS: "Karzai Seeks Saudi Role in Peace Talks: Afghan Leader Proceeds on Diplomatic Track, Amid Disagreements--From Allies and Taliban--About the Process," by Matthew Rosenberg, Wall Street Journal, 3 February 2010.

Here's the scariest line in a while:

Saudi Arabia is the only foreign country that most Afghans--from Taliban fighters in the south to Tajik politicians from the north to ordinary workers in Kabul--agree that Afghanistan can depend on.

Sigh!

Man, that sounds like asking the guy who's screwing your spouse to serve as your divorce attorney.

And we wonder why Afghanistan remains so massively f--ked up.

I mean, look at how well the Saudis have worked their mediating magic in Lebanon or for the Palestinians. Is it possible for any collection of Muslims to have a worse outside patron than the House of Saud?

I would even have to side with the Iranians on that one.

China will have to switch to democracy

ARTICLE: China Nearly Doubles Security Budget for Xinjiang, By EDWARD WONG, New York Times, January 13, 2010

This step (doubling the security budget for restive Western province Xinjiang) gives you a sense of the inevitably rising cost for Beijing of maintaining control throughout the nation.

I have never had any doubt that Beijing would initially opt for more control on every subject as the nation's development advanced. But the larger reality is that such efforts will degrade China's competitive advantages on price over time.

Once the extensive growth period is done and the "golden period" of demographic advantage dissipates, there is no advantage to having authoritarian government--despite the many myths recently created about the "superiority" of China's single-party state. China is heading to the all-things-being-equal part of advanced development, and when a regime reaches that point, democracies simply perform better--not by how they run things but by how they get the hell out of the way of those who really need to run things, aka the private sector.

(Via WPR's Media Roundup)

We need more India in Afghanistan

POST: The price of greater Indian involvement in Afghanistan, By Sanjeev Miglani, Afghan Journal, Jan 19, 2010

Interesting and informative post from a seemingly very solid blog.

First, the good news:

U.S. Defense Secretary Robert Gates is heading to India, and one of the things Washington is looking at is how can regional players such as India do more in Afghanistan. "As we are doing more, of course we are looking at others to do more," a U.S. official said, ahead of the trip referring to the troop surge.

The bad news, and the theme of post, is that any further expansion of India's role will perturb the Pakistanis greatly.

Already, many Pakistanis, according to the post, view Afghanistan as "the new battleground on par with Kashmir, with many in Pakistan saying Indian involvement in Afghanistan was more than altruistic and aimed at destabilising Pakistan from the rear."

What do the Afghanis want? More training of their military by the Indians, especially in counterinsurgency.

The author's fear:

But isn't this going to antagonise Pakistan further? Running courses for a few officers is one thing, but training a whole combat unit is another. A deepening military relationship between Afghanistan and India would be an uncomfortable prospect for any security planner in Pakistan. Imagine, for a moment, the Pakistani army training strike formations of the Bangladesh army.

Personally, I think this expansion is worth the risk. This is exactly the route by which regional powers are brought in--and "bought in" WRT the security situation, just like the Chinese doing border police training on their shared border with Afghanistan.

(Thanks: Our man in Kabul)

Security improving in Iraq

ARTICLE: Iraqi panel bars 2 Sunni politicians from election, By QASSIM ABDUL-ZAHRA, AP, Feb 11, 2010

Iraq certainly has their reasons, but the larger reality here is that Iraq's frontier-justice days are coming to a close--thankfully. What replaces that will not be up to America's standards, but it will suffice for ordinary Iraqis used to worst.

Always be happy when the gun men get the boot. Happened in the American West, and will happen, chunk by chunk, across the Gap in coming years and decades.

(Thanks: Dan Hare)

The daddy perspective

I am still healing from the sinus surgery, according to my ENT whom I saw earlier this week. My last post-surgical check-up comes in May! Over six months after the fact!

I do not miss the infections and all the dark thinking that accompanied them, but I am still having sleep issues (gotta work my "hygiene" in that regard, as in, get a good rule set and stick to it). The upside? I'm reading more books than ever, and I really love that. Plus, quite honestly, I've never been much of a sleeper, tending more toward six hours than seven or longer. Most of my life, the idea of sleeping more than eight hours? Just never happened. And I can't imagine I'll sleep more as I age, because nobody I know does that.

The continuing proximate issue: I suffer a certain nausea that comes in concert with what I might describe as memory headaches (the old areas impacted by the infections ache a bit, but nothing more, as the memory of the infections are recalled, but that's all). I ask the ENT about the connection and he says, unfortunately, a bunch of nerves that control the stomach pass through the sinus areas, so the bond is real and likely part of the healing process. Solution? Stay off any food too wild and cease eating early in the evening--never easy for me, because I tend to pass on food early in the day, so at night, the temptations are great. Married the wrong woman in that regard.

Anyway, last night I have trouble going to sleep, finally knock off about 2 am, and then find myself with some intestinal distress/bad thinking-dreaming around 6am. My dreams are typically fabulous adventures. I've always loved sleeping for this reason. And whenever I have anything even slightly disturbing, the cause is almost always the same: my physical being is slightly off kilter (the late-eating curse that I must confront as I age!).

So, this morning, I wake up and, despite the perceived need for sleep, I can't. What to do?

Life intervenes in that way that convinces me, on a daily basis, to go with my wife's instinctive need to keep expanding our family. Sans children, I would probably pace the downstairs, staring out of window at the snow in the dim light--all Swedish-film like (What does it all mean?!).

Instead, between 6:15 and 7:30 I get to:

1) Work out a game plan for my eldest, whose nighttime bite guard is causing jaw problems (I suspect we need to move it from her lower teeth to her upper teeth, a change I was forced to make about two decades ago)--Dad as doc.

2) Comfort extended to child #1, I hear my waking younger son bitching out loud from his bedroom about his fears of serving this morning at a school mass. He's being elevated from mere candle bearer to cross bearer, and the burden is weighing heavily on his mind! I sit on his bed and we review the printed server instructions at length--Dad as life coach. Next crisis!

3) Youngest daughter is a bit crabby and needs help with her complicated school dress uniform (I also double back to help younger son with his top shirt buttons). I convince my spouse to take the younger kids to school, as I think I might try to go back to sleep for a bit. Dad to be rewarded for his good deeds!

4) Then phone rings at 7:10, never a good sign. Older pair of kids, driving selves to school, get involved in sliding car pileup. Daughter driver handled it well, pulling her slide off to side of road with no damage and stranding the Civic slightly in the snow. Clothes quickly applied, I head off in father-in-law's pickup (in-laws on vacation, so I get to indulge my inner redneck amidst all these dangerous driving conditions of late) and locate the car on road to HS. Wife had previously bought trunk snow shovel for such a scenario, so I pull it out of Civic, dig the car out, and teach my older son how to push the car while instructing the older daughter how to rock-and-roll her way out of the situation as driver. We succeed just as the cops pull up! Kids drive off and I drive home, too awake now to contemplate anything other than work.

Meanwhile, whatever was bugging me at 6am (besides the intestinal discomfort) is gone. I can't remember what the hell I was thinking about.

God bless the children!

Now I'm happy as a camper, blogging away while listening to Frankie! on my iPod.

I really don't know what I'd do without a family. I would be some OCD-addled loner who obsessed over this or that issue all the time. Of course, I might be a whole lot more prolific as a blogger, living through my Mac, but the world enjoys enough such personalities.

I deeply prefer this path. I just don't think I'd be much of a strategic thinker without the perspective-providing reality of marriage, kids--the whole shebang. They all work your long-term-thinking muscles.

And keep me from getting too self-involved.

Next up? While waiting for assignment of our future daughters of Africa, we decide to expand the pet pool from three female Siberian cats to three cats plus a dog. We meet the Cairn terrier (yes, we've getting a "Toto"!) breeder in MN this weekend while attending a birthday gathering around my Mom.

No shortage of family mini-crises/daily challenges. Life is good.

Ahmadinejad's ambition and impact

OP-ED: Iran's leaders are worried about history's forward march, By Said Amir Arjomand, Daily Star, February 04, 2010

Key description forms the basics of my analysis for a while now:

n the 20 years since Khomeini's death, the composition of this political class has changed drastically. The clerical elite has gradually lost power to the military-security groups, from whose ranks the president, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, emerged. Bureaucratic and security services dominated by the Revolutionary Guards and its militia, the Basij (the Mobilization Corps), are now firmly in command.

The supreme leader of the Islamic Republic, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, blessed the Revolutionary Guards' decision to steal the presidential election. By identifying squarely with the military-security apparatus headed by Ahmadinejad, Khamenei has alienated an important segment of the ruling clerical elite. He has also reduced his own status as the ultimate arbiter in Iranian society, a role that was central to Khomeini's dominance of the system. As a result, he has produced a rupture between the two pillars of the revolutionary regime: the clerical elite and the military-security structure.

In a nutshell, no better description of Ahmadinejad's ambition--and impact.

Basic takeaway: those who argue we face a religious extremist leadership in Iran do not recognize this profound evolution of the revolution there. Iran is not ruled by religious nutcases. The clerics were sacrificed in favor of a military mafia, which certainly rules with the most base intent, but that does not make them "crazy" or "irrational." We do ourselves a disservice when we cling to out-of-date stereotypes. Ahmadinejad's alleged craziness is more fox-like than we care to admit.

(Via WPR's Media Roundup)

Ignorance in the national discussion

ARTICLE: Chinese see U.S. debt as weapon in Taiwan dispute, By Bill Gertz, Washington Times, February 10, 2010

The usual Gertz hyperbole: the "Chinese" are reduced to some loudmouth military general without a clue on economics, as reported by a journalist similarly clueless.

That weapon fires both forward and backwards at the same time. But let's pretend such objective reality matters not to China's regime stability. Yes, yes, calling it "unrestricted warfare" means the underlying economic reality can be wished away.

I don't know what's dumber: the alleged Marxists being that ignorant of basic economics or your average American national security journalist reporting such ignorance so breathlessly.

Either way, the discussion is certainly debased.

(Via WPR's Media Roundup)

Ahmadinejad must be feeling secure

WORLD NEWS: "Iranian President Orders Enrichment: Ahmadinejad Contradicts Earlier Statements That Regime Would Consider Sending Uranium to Another Country," by Chip Cummins and Peter Spiegel, Wall Street Journal, 8 February 2010.

WORLD NEWS: "Iran prepares to cut price subsidies: Government risks stoking public ire," by Najmeh Bozorgmehr, Financial Times, 5 February 2010.

Two fairly confident moves, the subsidy cuts even more so than the enrichment. Ahmadinejad is certainly not acting like a dictator on the ropes.

NATO comes to the conclusion faster than Obama

WORLD NEWS: "Afghanistan: Nato calls for more global partners; China, Russia and India urged to help; Alliance seeks second supply route," by Quentin Peel and James Lamont, Financial Times, 8 February 2010.

The Nato in question was the secretary-general in a very explicit speech.

Great quote:

What could be the harm for countries such as China, India, Pakistan and others to develop closer ties with Nato? If Afghanistan becomes a safe haven for terrorists they could easily spread through central Asia to Russia. Of course Afghanistan is not an island. There is no solution just within its borders.

And yet, whenever you hear Obama talk on this score, it's all America and Nato and fixing Pakistan in addition.

Sorry, but it's different when bad things happen to good people in America

OPINION: "Haiti: Obama's Katrina," by Soumitra R. Eachempati, Dean Lorich and David Helfet," Wall Street Journal, 26 January 2010.

Poor analogy. You might say it's "Obama's postwar Iraq rebuild" or compare it unfavorably to Bush's pretty good response on the Christmas Tsunamis, but comparing it to Katrina is seriously offbase.

When the disaster happens inside America, people expect a stunning response. When such a response is not forthcoming in some Third World country, it's somewhat embarrassing but hardly a political scandal.

"Haiti's Katrina," all right, but some perspective and sense of national responsibility--please.

China's damage is probably worse than we think

ARTICLE: China's water pollution level higher than estimated in 2007, By Emma Graham-Harrison, Washington Post, February 10, 2010

As bad as we think China's pollution is, the efforts to hide it or diminish public awareness of its vast nature are significant.

So expect lotsa such revelations in the years ahead. So much damage, not enough Erin Brockoviches.

China don't impress me much

ARTICLE: Don't Get Giddy About China, by Sam Baker, Asia Sentinel, 04 February 2010

Good summary of why, even in the short run, we shouldn't be too impressed with China-as-unstoppable-juggernaut arguments--and, by extension, the alleged supremacy of authoritarian capitalism.

China outsourcing to Kazakhstan

EURASIA INSIGHT: KAZAKHSTAN: CHINA LOOKING TO LEASE LAND FOR AGRICULTURAL PURPOSES, By Joanna Lillis, EurasiaNet.org, 2/04/10

Another example of outsourcing's "third wave."

(Via WPR's Media Roundup)