The four stages of Putinism
Thursday, March 14, 2013 at 12:23PM Wikistrat is currently running a simulation on "When Putin Falls." It's not a prediction, per se, but an exploration of a pathway in which Putin does not finish out his current six-year term.
With that in mind, check out "The four stages of Putinism," by Andrei Piontkovsky at the Hudson Institute.
They are:
- Creating the legitimizing myth
- Period of storms and stresses
- Heroic triumph
- Ideological exhaustion and death
In my mind, Putinism was an inevitable rightist-surge following the opening-up under Yelstin (too chaotic). It set the ship of state on a steadier course but it has not knowledge of how to rule - only how to build and consolidate rule (the siloviki).
What is hopefully next is the permanent normalization of politics post-Putin. He can facilitate that in a graceful way, but one is tempted to say that's unlikely.
Anyway, already any number of interesting scenarios posted on the sim's wiki.
If you are interested in joining Wikistrat's Analytic Community (now about 600 analysts worldwide), contact me at thomaspmbarnett@wikistrat.com.
Reader Comments (2)
Death as in "His allies and voters start abandoning him" or death as in "Stress and/or assassination shuffles him off the mortal coil"?
I've reached the middle of Pentagon's New Map and a question that keeps coming up in my head and now brought up by this blog post is if a country can backslide out of the Core and into the Gap. It seems like Russia and China show signs of risking this possibility, among other regions of the Core. A post-Putin scenario would certainly seem to open this possibility.