Final column at World Politics Review
Monday, April 30, 2012 at 12:19PM The New Rules: Globalization's Future Depends on Stable U.S.-China-India Order
BY THOMAS P.M. BARNETT | 30 APR 2012
COLUMNEditor's note: This will be the final appearance of Thomas P.M. Barnett's "The New Rules" column at World Politics Review. We'd like to take this opportunity to thank Tom for the insightful, compelling analysis he has offered WPR readers each week for the past three years, as well as for the support he has shown for WPR over that time. We wish him continued success.
Amid all our current fears regarding the global economy’s potential “double dip” back into deep recession, a longer-term question stands out: How can a supposedly declining America protect the golden goose that is globalization while managing the rise of twin economic superpowers in the East -- namely, China and India? History says that three is a crowd when it comes to system stability. Invariably, some conflict will arise to trigger a two-against-one dynamic that must yield to either the stable stand-off of bipolarity, as during the Cold War, or the emergence through decisive conflict of an acknowledged unipolar hegemon, as in the early post-Cold War period.
Read the entire column at World Politics Review.
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Reader Comments (2)
Glad you saved the best WPR column for last. A wonderful,sensible very long range objective: "Stewarding the world's resources as the only form of global leadership worth pursuing"...and then: "...world will still turn, even when Asians turn the crank". In place of threatening this is wisdom...and finally to end..."this projection is not a scary or unstable future. Its the best set of strategic problems we've yet faced." Eureka, Tom Barnett at his very BEST. Thank You!
You've made a scary scenario an exercise in positive thinking as usual. Here's a possible "system perturbation" I've been wondering about for a while: Unregulated fracking finally causes an earthquake of significant proportion, destabilizing a major fault line, taking out an entire city and nearby areas. Does that affect your projection? Even with all we know about oil extraction, we still have our Exxon and BP disasters.....why not fracking?