Mubarak teases again!
Friday, February 11, 2011 at 9:31AM 
So the big military council meeting, if it did indeed happen without Mubarak (as reported), still resulted in the army deciding that they preferred the Big Man stay in office through September.
I will admit, I still like this path best, despite the obvious risks. I don't want him gone in a heartbeat, because that scenario favors the most organized (Muslim Brotherhood), and his continuing presence will keep them careful through the election. Getting somebody solid in there, that the military can live with, is the best hope for this democratization process to actually unfold and take hold. Too fast and furious and we probably get a restoration within a year.
Back to the Wikistrat paths: we start with Explosive Rip, Mubarak makes some weak moves, we head into the Steady Drip of protests, and now the military has spoken (Suleiman is the interim, but elections to happen and happen freely).
Again, I know everyone is impatient, but this gives the world and the opposition some time to get their stories straight. The one narrative of "crazy MB waiting to take over and thus you need a strongman" is old and established. The new narrative of Mubarak's many abuses and the rise of the stable middle class, etc., that one needs to be established in people's minds. We have reached a real tipping point and a good one, but so many ways to screw it up.
I think so long as the protesters maintain themselves on some very public level, and continue to prompt progress and keep the whole deal firmly in the media's eye, this can work out nicely still.
LATEST CNN AT 1000: Army giving out food to protesters, Suleiman described by gov officials as "de facto president," and Mubarak and Missus skip Cairo for resort town Sharm el-Sheikh. Sounds like internal exile.
Again, this is proceeding pretty nicely, by my way of thinking. We've had the back and forth, but it looks like the military has made its call and - for now - it's a good one.
Reader Comments (1)
Watching the live feed from Al Jazeera has been interesting. Mubarak has already been reduced to a Saturday Night Live character, they called him Egypt's first "zombie president". Another is "Mubarak" is a synonym for a crazy boyfriend or lover that doesn't understand its over. My hope is that our mil-mil contacts are very active because I have lost faith in our diplomatic corps. It seems like everyday is another third down play.