Wikistrat Middle East Monitor, September 2011

We're excited to announce the launch of Wikistrat's Middle East Monitor for September 2011, which can be viewed in its entirety here.

Summary

All eyes were on the Palestinian bid for U.N. membership this month. The move puts the U.S. in the uncomfortable position having to exercise its veto to block the bid, which could cause the region to erupt in anti-American fervor and lead to violence on the borders of Israel. However, Wikistrat does not believe that such an event would have a direct strategic affect, and is more concerned about how the political environment would improve the appeal of the Islamists in countries affected by the Arab Spring. The Islamists would benefit politically if Israel and confrontation with the West were to become major campaign issues, particularly in Tunisia and Egypt, where elections are to be held in October and November, respectively.

Civil war appears imminent in Yemen, and the chances of an armed revolt within Syria significantly increased. Yemeni President Saleh has returned home from Saudi Arabia, where he was being treated for three months following an assassination attempt. His return resulted in a sharp increase in violence, and now fighting between tribesmen loyal to the opposition, backed by defected soldiers, and the regime, is spreading. At the same time, two groups in Syria have formed called the Free Officers Movement and Free Syria Army, with contradictory reports on whether they are rivals or have united. The Free Syria Army is claiming credit for a string of attacks on the regime’s security forces, but is far from presenting a significant armed challenge at this stage.

The struggle between Islamists and secularists in the Arab Spring became more apparent this month. In Libya, Islamists are trying to sideline the secular leadership of the National Transitional Council. In Egypt, liberal parties are decrying the unfair playing field they face, with some calling for a postponement of elections until they can properly organize. In Syria, it is less obvious, but rival efforts to form opposition groups show the Islamists and secular democratic forces are in a quiet competition to lead the opposition to the Assad dictatorship.

All eyes were on the Palestinian bid for U.N. membership this month. The move puts the U.S. in the uncomfortable position having to exercise its veto to block the bid, which could cause the region to erupt in anti-American fervor and lead to violence on the borders of Israel. However, Wikistrat does not believe that such an event would have a direct strategic affect, and is more concerned about how the political environment would improve the appeal of the Islamists in countries affected by the Arab Spring. The Islamists would benefit politically if Israel and confrontation with the West were to become major campaign issues, particularly in Tunisia and Egypt, where elections are to be held in October and November, respectively.

Civil war appears imminent in Yemen, and the chances of an armed revolt within Syria significantly increased. Yemeni President Saleh has returned home from Saudi Arabia, where he was being treated for three months following an assassination attempt. His return resulted in a sharp increase in violence, and now fighting between tribesmen loyal to the opposition, backed by defected soldiers, and the regime, is spreading. At the same time, two groups in Syria have formed called the Free Officers Movement and Free Syria Army, with contradictory reports on whether they are rivals or have united. The Free Syria Army is claiming credit for a string of attacks on the regime’s security forces, but is far from presenting a significant armed challenge at this stage.

The struggle between Islamists and secularists in the Arab Spring became more apparent this month. In Libya, Islamists are trying to sideline the secular leadership of the National Transitional Council. In Egypt, liberal parties are decrying the unfair playing field they face, with some calling for a postponement of elections until they can properly organize. In Syria, it is less obvious, but rival efforts to form opposition groups show the Islamists and secular democratic forces are in a quiet competition to lead the opposition to the Assad dictatorship.

Wikistrat Bottom Lines

Opportunities

• Turkey has placed an arms embargo on Syria and will enact further sanctions. Prime Minister Erdogan has also offended the Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood with his call for secular governance. This is a surprising development given Erdogan’s own Islamist orientation, but these actions nonetheless complement Western interests.
• Saudi Arabia has granted women the right to vote in local elections in 2015. If they are able to turn out, that will give the liberal elements within Saudi society a greater voice. The Moroccan and Saudi models of handling the Arab Spring also offer a formula for Western allies in the region.
• Syrian protesters are increasingly vocal about their desire to see various kinds of Western intervention on their behalf. This opens the door for the West to reach out to the opposition in Syria, and perhaps elsewhere, and provides an opportunity for the West to strengthen secular elements.

Risks

• A civil war in Yemen is very likely to be bloody and severely destabilizing. The main opposition party, Islah, is a Muslim Brotherhood affiliate with Salafist backing. Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula will have more freedom of movement, and the Iranian-supported Houthis in the north will have an increasing amount of autonomy.
• The increasingly assertive role of Turkey also carries risks. The Turkish government may favor the Islamist elements of the Syrian opposition. It also is increasingly confrontational towards Israel, showing that it has not taken a sharp turn towards the West entirely.
• The ongoing fighting in Libya raises the threats of weapons falling into the hands of enemies to the West, terrorists gaining a foothold, and Qaddafi loyalists waging an insurgency from neighboring countries.

Dependencies

• The goals of Turkey. The political party of Erdogan is undoubtedly Islamist, but Turkey’s confrontation with Syria, break with Iran and clash with the Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood is leaving observers in disagreement about his regional objectives.
• The patience of the defected military forces in Yemen, particularly General Ali Mohsen. The soldiers have defended protesters, but have not made a full push to forcibly push Saleh out of power.
• The ability of the Syrian opposition to address the fears of the minorities that back Assad out of self-preservation, specifically the Allawites, Christians and Druze who fear persecution.