Iran crossing a line on attacks inside the US?
Wednesday, October 12, 2011 at 6:01AM You've probably heard the reports coming over the various "wires." Here's a link to ABC's version.
Gist: FBI and DEA (yes, the DEA!) say they disrupted an Iran sponsored plot to attack Saudi and Israeli diplomatic reps/buildings in Washington. Naturally, if true, this would be a major-league line-crossing by Tehran, which has always been fairly "correct" - if such a term can be used here - in its anti-West/US/Israeli terrorism, meaning Iran has typically displayed a certain recognition that these targets will get you that indirect response from your opponents while those targets will place you in serious jeopardy of a direct response. Again, if true, these plots are of the level that can easily trigger some serious direct responses.
As way of background, here's a statement on these developments from a colleague of mine, Michael Smith. I repost in full with his permission. You will remember Mike from a piece we co-wrote on Syria a while back for WPR. I also wrote about Mike's report (mentioned again below) in another WPR column.
Statement from Kronos Principal and Gray Area Phenomena Subject Matter Expert Michael S. Smith II*
Regarding the linkage of the Iranian (Islamic) Revolutionary Guards Corps’ Qods Force to the terror plot targeting embassies located in Washington, DC
*Entered into the Congressional Record on September 23, 2011 by U.S. Congressman Jeff Duncan, in April 2011 Kronos Principal Michael S. Smith II presented members of the House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence and the Congressional Anti-Terrorism Caucus a report on Iran’s ties to al-Qa’ida and Affiliated movements titled “The al-Qa’ida Qods Force Nexus.” A redacted version of this report is now available online.
Background
The Qods Force (QF) is an elite and clandestine special operations unit nominally within the command of the Iranian (Islamic) Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC). QF is Tehran’s top ambassador to the realm of Islamist terrorism. Its commanders serve as chief liaisons between the Government of Iran and organizations like Hizballah (which was formed with substantial support from the IRGC), as well as the leaders of Sunni militant groups such as Core al-Qa’ida and the Afghan Taliban.
Operating globally, QF was created with a mandate to bolster the development and operations of Islamist terrorist groups that target Iran’s enemies in the Middle East and beyond. To that end, and frequently in collaboration with Hizballah — which has developed a substantial presence in Latin America and the Caribbean — QF provides financial, training, and tactical support to these groups, several of which are responsible for hundreds of attacks targeting American soldiers in Iraq and Afghanistan.
QF commanders report directly to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Sayyed Ali Hosseini Khamene’i, the top official among the most powerful cadre of government officials in Iran: The Islamic Republic’s “unelected” theocratic leaders who do not rely on the popular vote to secure their positions of authority. QF purportedly maintains such a secretive existence that few Iranian government officials are aware of its membership numbers, which are assessed to range between 2,000 – 20,000. Its ranks are said to be comprised of Iran’s most highly skilled special operations and intelligence officers. High-profile officials affiliated with QF include Iran’s current minister of defense, Ahmad Vahidi, who previously served as a commander of this paramilitary unit and is known to have a decades-long relationship with Core al-Qa’ida Commander Ayman al-Zawahiri.
As noted in my April 2011 report on the Qods Force’s ties to al-Qa’ida for members of the United States Congress: According to the U.S. Department of Defense, QF has been “involved in or behind some of the deadliest terrorist attacks of the past 2 decades.”1 QF was behind the two U.S. Embassy truck bombings in Beirut, the 1983 Marine barracks bombing that killed 241 U.S. soldiers, and most of the foreign hostage-taking in Lebanon during the 1980s and early 1990s. It is also known to have directed Saudi based Hizballah al-Hijaz, an organization created by the IRGC, to plan attacks against Americans. This directive is said to have manifest the 1996 attack on the Khobar Towers that killed 19 Americans and wounded another 372. An attack which authors of the 9/11 Commission Report suggested al-Qa’ida may have played a role in.
Statement Regarding Allegations of QF Involvement
It would be highly unusual for Qods Force operatives to be involved in such an operation as the recently uncovered plot targeting facilities and foreign officials in Washington, DC without the knowledge and consent of the Supreme Leader of Iran. Moreover, given the president of Iran’s ties to the IRGC, in which he previously served as an officer, coupled with his efforts to elevate IRGC officials’ roles in the Iranian government since he was first elected president, it is reasonable to speculate Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad would have been apprised of such a plot.
If the Qods Force is indeed involved with the plot to bomb embassies based in Washington, DC this would represent a substantial and very alarming shift in Tehran’s use of terrorism as an instrument of the Islamic Republic’s foreign statecraft. Historically — although the Government of Iran vis-à-vis QF and its terrorist proxies has targeted American interests in the Middle East and South Asia — the Government of Iran has typically avoided involvement in plots targeting the U.S. Homeland. (Note: A lawsuit in which plaintiffs assert the Government of Iran was involved with the 9/11 plot was recently initiated in a U.S. court.)
USG national security managers and policy makers should take Iran’s alleged involvement in this plot just as seriously, perhaps more so, than similar plots to strike the U.S. Homeland spearheaded by al-Qa’ida and Affiliated Movements.
During the past three decades, Washington has failed to take appropriate action in responses to Iran’s involvement in successful terror plots that have resulted in the deaths of hundreds of American troops, as well as American civilians. And additional economic sanctions will only strengthen the Government of Iran, which in recent years has transformed the country from a theocratic state into a garrison enterprise by enabling the IRGC to acquire substantial stakes in virtually all important sectors of the country.
If the Iranian (Islamic) Revolutionary Guards Corps’ Qods Force was behind this recent terror plot, failure to issue a forceful response will only empower the Government of Iran in its all too well-known pursuits of opportunities to inflict harm on Americans and our allies. This, as Tehran is dangerously dabbling with the development of nuclear capabilities.
If investigators have indeed confirmed the Qods Force played a collusive role in this plot, officials would be well advised to regard this as an (attempted) act of war.
Kronos is a strategic advisory firm established in 2011 by Medal of Honor recipient MajGen James E. Livingston, USMC (Ret) and Congressional counter-terrorism advisor Michael S. Smith II — online at kronosadvisory.com
1 Unclassified Report on Military Power of Iran. U.S. Department of Defense. April 2010. Online via http://www.foxnews.com/projects/pdf/IranReportUnclassified.pdf
Coverage of The al-Qa’ida-Qods Force Nexus report was produced in May by the following news organizations:
Agence France-Presse (AFP) “Report Highlights Alleged Iran Force’s al Qaeda Links” (4 May 2011)
Link to report: http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5ghRPhpAicLLjQad84KP5hwCja97A?docId=CNG.c4e5aaec1a6b9ae498dbebf05c7cebdc.1121
The Jerusalem Post “U.S. congressional report: Iran offering support to al-Qaida” (5 May 2011)
Link to report: http://www.jpost.com/International/Article.aspx?ID=219255&R=R1
Al Arabiya “Report from Congressional panel says Iran’s Revolutionary Guard helps Al-Qaeda” (5 May 2011)
Link to report: http://english.alarabiya.net/articles/2011/05/05/147902.html
Reader Comments (7)
highly implausible, read Juan Coles' comment on this.
I'm still stratching my head about why Iran would risk incurring the "direct response" that would come from a successful bomb attack on American soil. Can it be that, in light of the nuclear scientists that have been taken out, the computer virus that has disabled a large number of their centerfuges, and any other clandestine activities that we don't know about, Iran already sees itself at war with the US, thus limiting its concern about inciting a direct response?
Also, I'm curious about your take on Hizballah's growing presence in Latin America and the Caribbean. Is that mostly a drug/gun enterprise?
DEA investigations uncover some surprising stuff. the narcotics trade generates huge sums of money and money buys things that a lot of people want. Intelligence services and the people that work in them cross paths with criminals and terrorists. It can get crazy.
Keep in mind that FBI and CIA are still recovering from accusations that they failed to share information prior to 911. No one wants to "sit" on anything now. Nobody takes anything "with a grain of salt."
The Iranians have been looking for trouble. The Israelis are always ready for it. It's election time in America and the President can't afford to look "weak." The Saudis have a lot of money. This just might be the tipping point.
It seems Robert Baer has a different take than Michael Smith.
http://www.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,2096747,00.html
"Plot out of Character for Iran's Professional Killers". He speculates that Iran really has no motive to do this, but groups such as the Mujahedin-Khalq (MEK) iranian opposition militants based in Iraq, do. I also don't understand why Iran would do this in the US, when it's much easier to do it in a third country.
Dose Iran's leadership really believe they can attack within the US and there will not be a significant response? The attack seems almost foolhardy in that leaves them open to almost any answer short of a declaration of war and invasion. And if such an attack had occurred during the previous White House administration doubtless some elements would be calling for just that. If this was indeed sanctioned at the highest levels in Iran, what the hell were they thinking?
I think the Obama Administration has to make their evidence VERY clear. Therefore full disclosure is vital. Luckily, this is a criminal trial, so there will be discovery of all evidence (unless the accused moves to immediately plead guilty). But unless they want to look like total incompetents, they must shed light on all of this, and quickly.
I'm inclined to agree with Trevor's take--not because I think we're wrong about this, but because it'll be easier to get support for whatever needs to be done if we take the time to develop the case right the first time.