What a serious containment of nuclear Iran would demand of US
Monday, September 20, 2010 at 12:04AM 
Nice op-ed in The Daily Star by way of WPR's Media Roundup.
Author is Middle East expert at Jamestown Foundation, an unusually solid source of common sense.
After laying out the realism that is accepting Iran will get nukes, Ramzy Mardini addresses what a serious containment strategy would require:
Three crucial features must be included in any containment approach. First, the US must strive for a coherent foreign policy vis-à-vis the Islamic Republic, with interests pegged to regional stability, not democracy and regime-change. Secondly, the US should be prepared to play a pacifying role in the region: restricting Iran, but simultaneously working to minimize dangerous escalations involving local allies, particularly when it involves Israel.
Finally, the US must offer a degree of certainty to its allies in the region – building on, reiterating, and implementing promises of active engagement in containing Iran. The growing uncertainty about Washington’s commitment will dramatically increase the incentive for regional states to seek self-assurance, and hence, indigenous nuclear deterrents of their own. Egypt, Turkey, and Saudi Arabia are among those who might seek this form of reassurance.
Without the necessary diplomatic arrangements and American leadership, the danger is that a containment strategy may be both amorphous and fragile. Tehran could easily engage uncertain actors interested in hedging their bets and, consequently, erode the cohesiveness of the coalition aligned against it.
American prudence and recognition of the limitations of power should not be confused with weak and ineffective policymaking. Given the uncertainties involved when it comes to Iran, Washington should emphasize realpolitik in addressing Iranian nuclear ambitions.
Pretty solid list, in my opinion.
And despite all the brave talk, I think the Obama administration is actually moving down this path with a lot of care--and genuine success.
Reader Comments (1)
Just like to mention two books on Iran I'm reading: The Perian Night by Amir Taheri, which is consistently and persistently anti-regime and anti- any kind of accommodation or approach which even hints at giving any kind of legitimacy to the regime (and use the phrase "useful idiots" way too often in a serious book), and Ahmadinejad by Kasra Naji, which is much more balanced while still not giving the regime any free passes. The latter also had some good information about Ayatollah Masbeh-Yazdi & his followers, of which Ahmadinejad appears to be one.