Chivers on what Marja means--so far

NYT piece by the always astute C.J. Chivers.

As NATO and Afghan forces flow into neighboring Kandahar Province, where for the next many months the latest high-profile effort to undo the Taliban’s hold will unroll, the continuing fighting in Marja can be read as a sign of problems in the American-led surge. It can also be read as something less worrisome: a difficult period in a campaign always expected to be hard.

A prevailing assessment among officers on the ground is this: The outcome is too soon to call.

“Right now it’s gray,” said Maj. Lawrence Lohman, the operations officer for Third Battalion, Sixth Marines, which operates outposts in northern Marja.

Those who deem the Marja offensive a disappointment, or even a failure, point to the daily violence and to the signs that Afghans have been leaving the area, at least temporarily, to avoid the fighting. They also point to Taliban intimidation of residents, a still limited government presence, and the continued reliance of Afghan police officers and soldiers on American supervision and logistics. These, they say, are ill-boding signs.

But the signals are contradictory.

Most of Marja’s civilians returned after moving away ahead of the initial assault. Most of them remain. Compounds that were empty in February are inhabited. Roads once quiet are busy. Fields are thick with crops. Shops in some bazaars have reopened. Afghan units participate visibly in dangerous missions.

Lt. Col. Brian Christmas, the battalion’s commander, noted that some of Marja’s residents had begun providing information on the Taliban, including sharing the names and locations of fighters. Many civilians have been seeking aid and a few have sought contracts for small scale development projects, the early steps in engagement.

“I’ve seen good growth and good progress,” the colonel said. He added: “There is still a lot to be done.”

The Marines point to what they clearly hope is a Helmand pattern, apparent in other districts, including Nawa, where the Taliban were strong and fighting was initially intense. The pattern, they said, is this: With time and resources, the insurgents’ position erodes, villages become secure, and engagement and the Afghan government presence expand.

Pursuing this goal, Marine companies have been sending out constant small patrols.

Time and patience and skills, we seem to have a plenty--at least on the military's side.

More and more we hear generals voicing out loud their thought that Afghanistan will take longer--the implied follow-on being ". . . than President Obama wants."

Obama will reach a Bush moment on Afghanistan, and he will either fold or play on.

Comments

[Ted O'Connor]

Sorrry, but the Lt. Colonels are not going to determine the outcome. They are there, in the villages and they are sitting down with the elders and the village boss. They talk, they have tea and they shake hands. It all amounts to nothing. This game will be decided by forces outside of their control. Mr. Obama and his close advisors want results. The American people want to see hundreds of enemy soldiers marching along with their hands up. Like the black & white newsreels of World War II. This, of course, will not happen. The Taliban do not cooperate. They fade away when we arrive in force. They plant their IED's on the roads we travel. The nerve of the bastards. They send suicide bombers into Kabul. We scratch our heads over that.

I am sorry. This is not going to work. We are going to leave. It is only a matter of time. The President we have put in charge of Afghanistan sees the eventual outcome. He openly negotiates with the enemy. Thank God the Russians are not in a mood to retaliate. if they were to supply the Taliban with weaponry that could knock out our drones, we would be in bad shape. The Press counts the casualties, political party out of office counts the cost, the pundits remind us that OBL is still at large. The most powerful military on earth sends its soldiers to engage in fights that try to overcome the enemy with rifle and machine gun fire.

Damn it. I am tired of the futility of it all. I am tired of the waste. I am tired of the sacrifice. Fine young men and women are being sent into this futile mess.

Sorry! Had to get it out.

[David Sutton]

"Afghans have been leaving the area, at least temporarily, to avoid the fighting" - well duh! Do I stay or do I go, not rocket science to imagine that folk are going to GTFO of dodge while the bullets fly.

It's a mark of conflict that is not isolated to the AFPAK region. I'm far more interested in if/when they come back, because that actually counts as a marker of progress.

[louis Heberlein]

Guys - Check out this site article:
http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/U/US_ENDING_WARS?SITE=FLTAM&SECTION=US

It's about a West Point hosted TRADOC gathering that discussed the ending of US wars.

Examples of dialogue:

"Deploying U.S. officers without knowing the enemy's history is as bad as not having a rifle with you."

"Can you find more tribes that are willing to work with you because you're fighting their traditional enemies?"

Fox Conner would be proud! ;-)