The Taliban, in gearing up their attacks, keep us in Leviathan mode as much as possible

The preview from Marjah, a former insurgent stronghold, does not bode well for the far larger and more seminal effort in Kandahar, where the persistent attacks against NATO base hubs suggests the Taliban will not simply wait out our latest surging COIN effort but will aim to keep us in combat mode as much as possible so as to crowd out the nation-building stuff.

Going into Marjah, we promised tens of millions of dollars for serious SysAdmin reconstruction efforts, only to so far spend $1.5M--a bit short of the projected $19M.  The Taliban has simply kept up the sort of harmonic attacks that keep the situation just unstable enough to prevent recovery--the usual kidnapping of Western workers on key projects and the beheading of pro-gov locals and "night letters" threatening retaliation.  Classic example:  USAID buys irrigation gear, but no local farmers will accept after one of the first to do so was killed by Taliban.  

To date, the whole telegraphing our punch by saying up front Kandahar would be the big proving ground seems to be backfiring.  The Taliban have geared up and gone toe-to-toe every step of the way.  We have our set level of effort, and the Taliban are effectively calculating just enough counter-effort to prevent any lasting impact.

This is where our go-it-alone-with-NATO package looks weak.  Everyone knows we make little effort to regionalize a serious long-term solution beyond Pakistan's cynical buy-in, and that reality encourages the Taliban to play hard for the anticipated short-duration--by their standards--effort the Westerners are likely to make.  Their threshold for critical mass is being met; ours is not.