WPR's The New Rules: Setting the Terms for a U.S.-China Grand Bargain

History tells us that, when a rising great power approaches the standing of the dominant system-shaping great power, conflict is inevitable, either directly or in such regions where their two spheres of influence intersect. The great counterexample is the acceptance by a "rising" America of the late-19th century of Great Britain's implicit offer of a "special relationship," which allowed the latter to punch above its weight throughout the 20th century. That alliance was subsequently forged in opposition to common enemies: first the Kaiser and then Nazi Germany, followed by the Soviet Union. 

China and the United States have no such common enemy of that stature. Lacking an obvious evil to fight, we are left with only an obvious collective good to preserve: globalization. This fortunate reality nonetheless encourages zero-sum thinking: China's inevitable rise is America's inevitable decline. Instead of a world to be shared and shaped, expert voices increasingly warn of a world to be divided and destroyed by wars over resources. 

To present an alternative to such zero-sum thinking, I've spent the past several months working with the Beijing-based Center for America-China Partnership and its chairman, John Milligan-Whyte, drawing up a proposed "China-U.S. Presidential New Grand Strategy Agreement." The document -- which Whyte and his partner, Dai Min, published in People's Daily Online last week -- proposes a diplomatic and economic "grand bargain" between China and the United States, one that breaks through the rising hostility and mutual suspicions that define the world's most important bilateral relationship. 

Read the entire column at World Politics Review.

Comments

[Elmer Humes]

Another wise, bold attempt to provide optimistic strategic guidance at the highest & broadest level on, what has to be the most important diplomatic arena in the world. I hope this achieves a wide audience, especially within our own government.

[Peter J. Brown]

Tom,

Superbly crafted, and enormously optimistic. But here is a space-based reality check, for example. China just launched a satellite. Xinhua as official media mouthpiece describes it as a civilian spacecraft, but Western analysts describe it as a military communications satellite. Just a micro glance at the challenges facing anyone who expects China to open up and become a candid, open, truthful and trustworthy partner. As for China's plans for Taiwan and South China Sea - and now East China Sea as well - actions speak louder than words, and China's recent actions are clearly signaling its troubling ambitions.

[Patrick O'Connor]

Will there be a brief on video directly related to this topic?

[Rick Wright]

This proposal for building a sound and realistic relationship with China is an excellent one, but it has several gaps (if you will pardon the pun) that need to be filled in.
1. China considers Taiwan in the same status as Tibet that is as province that belongs to China. This is non-negotiable as far as the Chinese government is concerned. Your proposal appears insensitive to this strongly held Chinese position.
2. If the U.S. removes high-tech trade restrictions on China, then China must pledge to do a better job of consistently enforcing U.S. and International intellectual property laws regarding patents and copyrights.
3. Much of the balance of trade issue between the U.S. and China involves the U.S. complaint that China is purposely keeping Chinese currency at an artificially low exchange rate. This issue ought to be addressed.
4. Finally India considers China an economic rival and potentially hostile threat. This latter is because of still unresolved border disputes especially in the North East Frontier Agency (NEFA) and the fact that China has tilted repeatedly towards Pakistan in disputes with India. The U.S. cannot afford to ignore India while moving to improve relations with China.
A little more thought and a good proposal can be a brilliant proposal.