'Evolution' from revolutionary to tired authoritarian
Monday, September 21, 2009 at 12:49AM ARTICLE: Iran's Revolution Grows Up, By Jon B. Alterman, World Politics Review, 15 Sep 2009
Great piece.
Especially liked the end:
This month, the government has reportedly canceled a series of public Ramadan celebrations and moved others to smaller venues that can be more easily controlled, all out of fear that they would become anti-government rallies. The days of mass mobilization are over.
In this way, Iran has become like many of its neighbors, drawing the lesson that it does not need the veil of revolutionary rhetoric to preserve its rule. Straightforward authoritarianism, with its control of the economy and a willingness to coerce opponents, has been the backbone of many Middle Eastern regimes for decades. The masses have no role but to follow. So it is now in Iran.
Iran's leadership is betting that it can make this pivot without forcing important parts of the clerical establishment into opposition. In this, the odds are clearly with the leadership. Clerics, and especially those on the state payroll, tend to support evolutionary rather than revolutionary change. But many clerical leaders were clearly repulsed by the government's acts of violence against Iranian civilians in June, and they have been slow to acknowledge the government's proclaimed victory, where they have done so at all. We may be seeing an important split opening up within Iran's ruling elite, with unpredictable results.
What is starkly clear, however, is that this Iranian government has crossed a threshold from which there is no turning back. The revolutionary promise of the Iranian regime, and the mobilization of the public to support that promise, is no more. The government will do as it wishes, and it will seek to sustain itself in power. The people's role is no longer to take to the streets, but rather to stay at home.
The revolution has grown up. Indeed, it is now over. Iran is no longer a singular revolutionary state; it is an ordinary authoritarian one.
This is why I don't view the nuke thing through the "crazy" angle. This evolution from revolutionary-to-tired-authoritarian is completely unremarkable.
(Via WPR Media Roundup)
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