Don't expect Tehran to play nice in the meantime

OPINION: "Expect More Adventurism From Iran," by Mohamad Bazzi, Wall Street Journal, 24 August 2009.

Solid argument:

Within Iran, the regime has chosen repression over accommodation to the opposition. It is unlikely that the ruling clique can win back legitimacy at home, but it will try to burnish its populist credentials abroad. Otherwise, the entire façade of an axis of resistance [to the West and the U.S. and Israel in particular] will crumble.

That's why I see Iran still reaching for the bomb and for that to be useful to us downstream. Until the rest of the world's great powers get scared enough by the prospect of an exchange in the Gulf (which can't happen with a monopoly situation in Israel), there's no great incentive to go after Iran beyond the usual diplomacy. Rising eastern powers (India, China) won't go for it and repressive local Sunni regimes are boxed in by Iran's clever use of the Israeli card (which only skyrockets upon Israel's coming attack).

But once it's a reality, things change, forcing the emerging of a regional security dialogue in which Israel gains de facto recognition throughout the Arab world and Iran loses its regional revolutionary status, because once you cut the deal with the devil, as the Sovs and Maoists found it, it's all over.

Comments

[Louis Heberlein]

So will Israel remind Arabs they all had Semitic roots?

[Javaid Akhtar]

I've met Greeks , Italians , Maltese and I am sure there are plenty others ..Spaniards...who are native yet obviously of Arab origin.Yet to be an Arab is an unwelcome identity ( even though Arabs are quite proud of their culture/history).But Israeli jews of 100% Arab origin ( nearly 50% of Jews there I think ) have been busily erasing their roots since their arrival there.Israel needs to keep a real division between Arabs ( who can be shipped out of West bank /Gaza/Isreal into the greater Motherland without penalty ..i.e they are just going back home ) ....and Jews ....who are the real original settlers of Isreal and deserve the land as a birthright.This narrative falls apart if you don't keep the Jews separate to the Arabs within it.Arabs who want to hate Israel...would probably prefer to keep them as Jews and not muddy the water with the idea that Parts of the ME are just being colonised by close cousin returning / jewish 'Arabs'.