The defining global trend of the 21st century
Wednesday, August 5, 2009 at 12:53AM A SPECIAL REPORT ON AGEING POPULATIONS: "A slow-burning fuse," by Barbara Beck, The Economist, 27 June 2009.
The special report that inspired my recent WPR column.
Key realization to remember: "The rich world's population is ageing fast, and the poor world is only a few decades behind."
Elders are 11% of the world now, but by 2050 they're 22% and 33% in advanced countries (Old Core).
And they're all already born.
The big change in world history in the 20th century, besides the death of great-power war, is the lengthening of lifespan. In 1900 the expected life at birth was 30 years in poor countries and 50 in rich. Now those numbers are up to 67 and 78.
In the 1970s, women around the world still has 4.3 children on average, but now it's 2.6 and 1.6 in the Old Core (which previews the world's depopulation mid-century).
Perhaps the key business point: the grey market (age-wise, that is) will be a lot like the emerging global lower-middle class: these people are careful with their money, have huge brand loyalty, and expect a ton of value.
Back to the future, my friends.
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