Tom in Middle East Quarterly

ARTICLE: Is Egypt Stable?, by Aladdin Elaasar, Middle East Quarterly, Summer 2009, pp. 69-75

Here's the graf that introduces it, the quote and the citation:

Instability in Egypt after Mubarak's incapacitation or death may become an international security concern. There is no clear chain of command or civil society base to facilitate the transfer of power to the next president. According to Thomas Barnett, a national security analyst and former professor at the U.S. Naval War College, the insecure succession could create a vacuum in which the Muslim Brotherhood could rise:

By hardwiring themselves into the goodwill of the masses through highly effective social-welfare nets, the Brotherhood is retracing the electoral pathway to power blazed by Hamas in Palestine and Hezbollah in Lebanon: hearts and minds first, blood and guts later.[38]

[38] Thomas P. M. Barnett, "The Country to Watch: Egypt," Esquire, Oct. 2006.

Lot's of reprints and links (including a lot of spam and creepy messianic sites and anti-islamic sites I'm not going to link). Some:
Le blog de Gad.
Middle East Analysis
Middle East and Other Musings