Every college girl loves Jane Austen, and every rising great power loves Alfred Mahan--get over it
Tuesday, July 28, 2009 at 12:20AM ASIA: "Chasing ghosts: The notion that geography is power is making an unwelcome comeback in Asia," by Banyan, The Economist, 13 June 2009.
Core bit:
Global energy needs are expected to roughly double by 2030, with India and China accounting for nearly half of the new growth in demand. Maritime security concerns are inevitable and legitimate.
They're also almost completely non-existent.
Does anyone think the United States is interested in denying China and India access to the Middle East, when already today America takes out only about one-tenth of what flows out of the Persian Gulf while Asia already takes out more than half?
Do I expect India and China to compete for access to energy supplies? You bet. Do I expect such competition to carry over into naval battles? Please. Although I can certainly point you to naval enthusiasts in both countries who love that scenario. But man, you're going to be one lonely economic player if the only way you can get enough oil is to start taking on other great powers militarily. If that's the extent of your technological innovation, you're screwed already.
In the end, I don't have much concern about the Chinese navy. Actually, I'm more concerned about the Indians' fear of the Chinese. But again, unless these two want to go at it and simply cannot be stopped (and yeah, that would take a large critical mass of stupidity at the top of both governments--at the same time), where else do we find this great looming danger? Piracy? Terrorists? Other countries' tiny, Coast Guard-like navies? Exactly who is going to be shutting down the Straits of Malacca so regularly?
Ah, but these are silly details when romantic Mahanists are in full swing ("Somebody get me the 19th Century on line 2!"). That they struggle so hard to gain our attention just shows you how traditionally arrayed navies are becoming irrelevant to this global landscape. There are relevant navy force structures to be had, but no, they won't be very Mahanian in look.
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