The third pole in Iranian politics is the one that interests me

FRONT PAGE: "Iranian Leaders Gaining the Edge Over Protesters," By NAZILA FATHI and MICHAEL SLACKMAN, New York Times, June 27, 2009.

The key bit:

Throughout the crisis, events in Iran have focused on two camps: the opposition, led by Mir Hussein Moussavi, a former prime minister, and the camp surrounding Mr. Ahmadinejad, including the supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, and the military and security agencies. But there is a third group of more pragmatic military and security figures who have competed with Mr. Ahmadinejad but are believed to remain close to Ayatollah Khamenei.

Two of the most influential in that group are the mayor of Tehran, Mohammad Baqer Ghalibaf, a former commander in the Revolutionary Guards, and the speaker of Parliament, Ali Larijani, the nation's former chief nuclear negotiator. Both ran for president four years ago and want to run again, and have at times been sharp critics of Mr. Ahmadinejad's stewardship. Political analysts have described them as loyal to the leader and committed to Islamic government, but eager for a more modern state integrated with the rest of the world.

Ghalibaf (I usually spell Qalibeaf, but who's counting?) is the one who has long interested me, because he's the technocrat, but Larijani is far more important now as speaker of the parliament and arguably the real opposition leader of note going forward (he has voiced plenty of concerns about the election). I see one long and ugly fight between the presidency and the parliament.

Comments

[Arsalan]

The real question (for me anyway) is if the schism in parliament will benefit the people of Iran. Ghalibaf might not like Ahmadinejad but in the end they are both former revolutionary guards who still believe in the "divinity" of the supreme leader. I'm also a little curious to see if the protests in Iran have caused ripples in other shi'a communities.....well mainly Lebanon. I wonder if there is any discord within Hezbollah.