The always intelligent Seib on Iran and the election

CAPITAL JOURNAL: "Rules on Iran Haven't Changed," by Gerald F. Seib, Wall Street Journal, 16 June 2009.

Best, most sensible bit:

The problem for the U.S., though, is that while all this may represent a positive turn toward a more reasonable Iran in the long run, one can hardly count on it. The Obama administration, in fact, has little choice but to continue to deal with Iran as if nothing fundamental has changed--and in fact, assume that the dispute makes the country harder to deal with, not easier, in the short run.

Four reasons cited:

1. we've seen such previous outbursts go nowhere;


2. so long as Ahmadinejad remains frontman, he's too erratic to deal with;


3. the nuclear program will go on;


4. the build-up on the Shah's fall was years in the making.

In short, Iran may have changed, but our problems with Iran remain the same and are unlikely to change any time soon.

Don't agree with everything here, but--again--sensible stuff.

Comments

[Dirk2112]

I'm far from a starry eyed optimist, but I think its demonstrably inaccurate to refer to "such previous outbursts." I mean, excepting 77-79 which ones would Seib name as falling into the same category as today's?

Doesn't Rafsanjani's involvement make this outburst different?

[Tom Barnett]

1999 and 2003.