Supporting what comes next in Iran

ARTICLE: A Tense Calm on Streets of Tehran, By Thomas Erdbrink, Washington Post, June 22, 2009

The quiet inevitably comes. And now the opposition realizes it won't shout the mullahs out of power a la Ceaucescu.

So the questions becomes, what organization now results?

Do we wish to support? Absolutely. But only in the most indirect sense. Still have to deal with the regime, and the nukes. We play bad cop still, Europe more easily the good. Support to the opposition best applied through private means, like the big Iranian ex-pat population in the U.S. Anything with USG fingerprints is bad.

And no, we don't particularly need to beam in "freedom radio." The Twitter connectivity proves that.

But you begin to see the utility of having a fairly democratic regime in Iraq right next door. Very unsettling in a good way.

Comments

[William R. Cumming]

Was there not a $400M approp to destablize Iran? What have you heard about that if it is a fact?

[Hugh]

One of the majior networks had a story on people using their computers as proxy servers so others in Iran and China could bypass the censorship. I am exploring the idea myself, connectivity seems to be their best weapon.

[Patrick O'Connor]

William, I recall a Bush plan to channel money through NGO's in Iran. The NGO's didn't want it and the regime used rumors of the plan to shut down the NGO's. This is a vague memory on my part. Perhaps someone knows more or can show I'm in error.

[Louis Heberlein]

Why not just a strike or work slowdown?

[Matt Osborne]

If the oil workers strike, then you can count Ahmadinejad's remaining days on two hands. But until that comes, my money's on a weaker Ahmadinejad-Khamenei regime remaining in place.

[Javaid]

The country governs with a weak powercentre , either way now. They will get a milder but still serious case of Algeria-itis.The numbers of people behind /supporting Shah-madinijad will not vanish into thin air with a coup.

[Tom Barnett]

I hold my counter-comments for tomorrow's Esquire column, written yesterday.

But we're thinking alike.