A bit hyperbolic (title at least) but the usual good stuff on Iran from Leverett and Mann
Tuesday, June 2, 2009 at 2:42AM SUNDAY OPINION: "Have We Already Lost Iran?" by Flynt Leverett and Hillary Mann Leverett, New York Times, 24 May 2009.
You might remember the story of Flynt and Hillary from the excellent Esquire piece written by John Richardson a while back. Suffice it to say, they know from where they speak.
Basic line is a familiar one to readers here: Obama has probably already lost his chance to stop Iran from getting a bomb. Why? He's changed the one but keeps the essential dynamics in place: give up the bomb and we will reward you economically.
That is simply offering the insufficient for the profoundly desirable.
Also, the two argue that picking Dennis Ross was very unimaginative: he is a classic engage-with-pressure type who's timing is wholly out of synch with reality here. Iranians are said to view Ross as simply a tactic: he will offer a poor deal simply to clear the way for kinetics.
My take: he will offer a weak deal simply to clear the way for face-saving-but-useless sanctions ("unprecedented!" of course) and Obama's team will simply move on to the next negotiating venue (after Israel's strikes prove "amazingly effective" and then ultimately inconsequential).
Again, there is little good Obama play on this in the short term: the usual failures must be applied before the serious talking begins.
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