Trying to catch up on events in Iran -- from China

ARTICLE: Signs of Fraud Abound, But Not Hard Evidence, By Glenn Kessler and Jon Cohen, Washington Post, June 16, 2009

The pile of circumstantial evidence grows...

Unfortunately, none of it can be "admitted" to/by Iran's official "court."

I see the unrest to date and welcome it, but I do not share this mushrooming of enthusiasm for, and expectation of, a bottom-up revolution in Iran.

I think people are being unrealistic.

This may well be the start, but I suspect we're a long ways from a successful peak. I just don't see that correlation of forces yet.

Even though I predicted such an outcome by 2010 in previous books.

My optimism simply fails me now, even as I would love to be proven wrong.

Maybe it's just due to hanging out with all these cautious Chinese academics ... but I think we expect too much from this one event.

Thus we watch for the surge to develop some serious legs, and that's where I'm pessimistic.

Hmmm.

Then I peruse the Wikipedia entry on the election and I get more upbeat.

Arguing against the Tehran-is-important-but-unrepresentative-of-Iran argument is the larger youth-skewed demographic reality.

In short, the optimist argues that this contested election proves how doomed theocracy is in Iran, the question being only timing.

Apologies, but I have simply been unable to track this much (or in a timely fashion from Shanghai, where I have been maximally engaged).

Comments

[Arsalan]

I know what you mean about the youth of Tehran. However, I have heard that they are having protests in Isfahan as well. I have also heard that there is a divide amongst the Mullahs and that the supreme leader is feeling the pressure from the infighting. Then I heard a relative's house was stormed and all the youth in it were arrested (and nothing since about his fate). I guess we will just have to watch and wait.

[Hugh]

I don't see the legs either, but there is a huge mass grave outside Tehran that still gathers flowers everyday, a reminder of the early days of the present revolution that promised peace and harmony but has delivered violence and oppression. On the upside it's, Mullah vs twitter. On the downside, this is Hillary's 3:00 AM phone call. My question is how should America play the cards we have been delt?

[Patrick]

I've been watching these events unfold quite closely for the last few days and I feel confident in saying that these protests go beyond the current election. While the majority of people in the streets are marching for a particular candidate the driving force is the questioning of the legitimacy of the process. The system as it stood has been perturbed and cannot go back to the status quo. I see the events unfolding in one of two ways, either there is a move within the regime to open the process up to more transparency (either more elections or a more transparent election, in the extreme case, an overthrow of the regime) or the regime moves to mobilize the military to break the back of the protesters which would likely eliminate any semblance of free elections altogether. I can't say which direction it will go, there are a number of forces playing out in the streets and in the regime which will decide the final equilibrium of the country.

I will say the one thing that has happened to is the uniting of the people of iran and the people of the us and the world through the internet. There is a unified (fighting?) force online that is actively disseminating information, bypassing firewalls, hacking sites, and simply supporting the movement; this is a large force that will play an important role in iranian-us relations down the road.

[Hal O'Brien]

The demographic angle has prompted me to comment (to some laughter among my friends): Iran is like gay marriage. Those resistant to change have already lost, the only question on the table is when change gets implemented.

[Doron]

your assessment is prudent and probably true.but the wide and direction interaction between Iranian dissidents and American people via twitter (including thousands of proxy servers and tunnels quickly configured to help their online traffic). serves as a great confirmation to many of them that Americans are actually supporters of their cause.

After Obama's Cairo speech this surely has a cumulative effect.

[Ted O'Connor]

Looks like this is a protest against the current office holder not the government of Iran. Notice I did not try to spell his name. Katie Couric said she learned to pronounce his name by repeating the phrase "I'm in a dinner jacket." Once again, America has influenced the thinking in another country. Our founding fathers threw off the yoke of monarchy. An incredible event at that time. It stirred the souls and minds of men all over the world. The French followed, then the Russians. Even the Brits have set the Royals on the shelf. Now we just elected a young man of color to the highest office we have. A man who does not "look" like all our past presidents. The young people in Iran have watched us change the face (pun intended) of our government by democratic process. They wanted to do the same. They were tired of "I'm in a dinner jacket" and they had a candidate they wanted instead. I don't think they are ready to invite the Jesuits in nor are they ready for "Government in a box"....sorry Tom....but they did want to get rid of a guy they thought was a jerk. Maybe they just need term limits. Works for us.