Iranian election aftermath

ANALYSIS: Muted Response Reflects U.S. Diplomatic Dilemma, By Scott Wilson, Washington Post, June 15, 2009

It'll be interesting to see how the U.S. gets definitive evidence of fraud independent from the losing candidate. Pretty tricky, and yet there was enough polling done this time to suggest the mullahs strenuously sought to avoid an either-or, second run-off election.

That alone tells us a lot: we are unlikely to get very far talking with Iran.

That's not an argument for not talking, because not talking + sanctions will accomplish even less, unless you think an isolated, pissed-off nuclear Iran is more appealing/handle-able than a more connected and more internally conflicted nuclear Iran is. Me? I see no reason to abandon or write off the Iranian people that casually.

As an aside, Romney's dumb-ass quote continues to mark him as a brand-dead partisan. No American president can--by some speech or willingness to talk--prevent an authoritarian regime from defrauding an election. John McCain would be in the same position, no matter what tough talk or threats he offered.

And no, Obama's Cairo speech didn't defeat Hizbollah in Lebanon, please.

Let's keep it far more real than that.

Comments

[stuart abrams]

As TPMB posted a few weeks, there is very much a "red"/"blue" division in Iran. What we see in the media largely reflects the urbanized sector that was anti-Ahmadinejad. However, polling seems to suggest that the vote may well be accurate, and that the theocrats retain rural and lower-class support. http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/06/14/AR2009061401757.htmlThis is bad news for any economic reform. Urbanization and the building of a middle class destroys the Mullahs' political base. This election suggests to me that they are smart enough to understand that, and they are going to try to stop it from happening. Doesn't seem that there is much the US can do about it.

[Arsalan]

It is important to note that the poll was taken in May and that most Mousavi has gained significantly since then. But you, Mr. Abrams, are correct about the moderate city versus the traditional rural schism. I guess we will just have to wait and see. I would have to agree with Dr. Barnett on not counting the people of Iran out. Maybe the rallies will cause another revolution or some kind of change.......it is highly unlikely, but still possible.

[Javaid Akhtar]

I'm hearing that what we are seeing is a genuine revolt against the Mullahs under the figleaf of the disputed election result.It looks like the Opposition is riding a wave that is ominously bigger than themselves.