Australia's sticking to its guns, and it's 20th-century mindset

ASIA: "Australia's Chinese entanglement: For all China's commercial charms, Australia still looks to America as Asia's sheriff," by Banyan, The Economist, 2 May 2009.

The recent Australian military white paper is a true work of goofy strategic paranoia. Their military--at least the planning elements--sounds far more dislocated from the real world of economics than ours is (and ours is pretty bad--hell, I feel like this nut sometimes when I get together with national security crowds in the U.S. because they lead such oddly isolated intellectual lives and I checked out four years ago).

But based on my time with the Aussie gov types out at the Great Barrier Reef island a couple years back, I think their policymakers (exemplified by PM Rudd) are far more sensible and enlightened. The security types, though, struck me as being from Central Casting, circa 1950s America.

And this all strikes me as odd, this sudden fear-mongering and desire to Leviathan itself up, because Australia's record on peace-keeping and SysAdmin work in its neighborhood is not just good, it's arguably a standard for the world.

That's why I find this recent mental shift so queer.

But I guess it's cool to piss in the wind if you like wet socks.

Comments

[Kotare]

I've read the Australian defence white paper. There's been no "recent mental shift". The key concept in the paper is self-reliance, Australia having the ability to deter and defend itself from direct armed attack. This is nothing new.

The paper takes as its start point the idea that Australia faces an uncertain and risky strategic situation in the Asia Pacific region. Hard to quarrel with that assessment, even if China does become a strong and positive player in the region.

[Sturt]

Tom

If you want to get an insight into another country's decision making that - on the face of it - baffles you, you've always gotta go to the domestic politics.

The White Paper is goofy - you're right. But the reason it goes forward is simple - Navy and Air Force rolled Army, yet again. And the government let it go out because it calculated that some statement of ambiguity about its attitude to China's rise would help it with other regional neighbors - ASEANs, Japan, Korea).

The White Paper is overrated as a planning document anyway. Budget constraints will curtail Oz's ability to put in place a force structure that truly reflects the White Paper's negative scenarios (small countries face tougher trade offs, and typically they make tougher choices than big countries can, too). And you're right - when it comes to walking the walk on SysAdmin, Australia is in stride.

[William R. Cumming]

Once the Australians realize the Chinese are "white" there will be no further problems. Few covet anything in Australian other than "Roos" which are large pests to Australians, Australian beach society, commodities, and a few other goodies like a view of the Sydney Opera House (one of the World's most recognizable structures). Hey we the US did it (first we made the Irish white, then the Southern Eurpoeans, now Hispanics so just needs a generational change). What are the trade numbers (that is the key)? With US? With Chinese Condominium (China, Japan, Koreas, Viet Nam, Burma, Indonesia)? And of course India and Pakistan also down the road. It really has much more to do with money than racial antipathy but hey the Botany Bay byproducts need to live out their own version of History, just as we all do. Hoping no offense to anyone with this comment, just my understanding of the situation. My ancestors in part were on the run from the law and fled Scotland/Ireland and landed in Halifax, Nova Scotia in 1797. Probably lucky not to be sent to Botany Bay also.

[David Sutton]

Agree whole heartedly with Stuart on this one, its the old navy/Air force vs Army street fight again. Which is crazy as most of our direct deployments, aside from the naval stuff we send to the gulf is boots on the ground, and that we do really well.

The up scaling of the air force and navy strikes me an overreach, but a desire to be seen as more than just the sidekick to the US. If we have out Abrahams and our F 35’s then we look more like a regional super power then before.

Shame because as Tom points out we do sys-admin really well, our SF guys are highly rated and do well in joint ops with just about anyone and our regular guys fit the bill as well when it comes to nation building and police action type work.