The real "assassin's mace"

CORPORATE NEWS: "China Sets Electric-Car Plan," by Norihiko Shirouzu, Wall Street Journal, 9 April 2009.

There are so many fantastic projections from our side regarding China's future military capabilities and ambitions, typically based on hyperbolic writings from Chinese strategists and little else. None of these projections take into account the inescapable reality: China hasn't fought a real war in well over half a century, and its last military operation of note saw its forces get their asses kicked by little Vietnam.

And yet, we are persistently treated with these fabulous scenarios in which the PRC risks everything to launch this super-surprise, fantastically high-end attack on the U.S. These scenarios can't be sustained by any plausibility, except in relation to some Taiwan scenario, which itself bleeds more plausibility with each passing year.

But screw the logic. If none of that works, then we'll just say the Chinese will suffer a bout of irrationality (i.e., uncontrollable nationalism where they decide to bet their entire future on taking down their biggest market and best source of financial capital market opportunities).

Whatever.

If you really want to see a Chinese plot to rule the world, this article comes a lot closer to describing a real one than any of the crap you get out of the Pentagon or intell community.

The pattern is one I've predicted for years: get an advanced outside car company (here, Nissan) as partner, with the lure being the growing domestic consumption. Once you make it happen there, you can make it happen anywhere, and it's off to the races.

I know, I know. Why conquer technology and markets and make tons of money to develop your people when you can risk it all with a surprise attack on America!

I am so f---king naïve.

Comments

[Tom Kelley]

In the Soviet era, we had Mutually Assured Destruction as a deterrent.

Now, in the China era, we have Mutually Assured Bankruptcy.

Given that far more people can understand the consequences of national bankruptcy, than people who can legitimately understand the consequences of thermonuclear war, I sleep much better now than I did thirty years ago.

[Louis Heberlein]

One thing that has puzzled me is that China has not made more visible efforts to employ SysAdmin and economic/social relationship with ASEAN group, and a peer economic partnership with Japan and South Korea.

There are bad historic memories to overcome, but I can't think of an effort that would raise China's image and influence faster. The Taiwan issue could be absorbed and evaporate as part of the transformation process of Asia matching the West.

Maybe that is why China is seeking all those port rights. Anybody see a new Cheng Ho guy coming?