Iranian political cipher

ARTICLE: Principlist clergy fail to endorse Ahmadinejad, (Iranian) Press TV, 23 Apr 2009

One is not so sure how to interpret this.

Clearly, Ahmadinejad has weakened his prospects by running such a bad economy. What this says is that his conservative backers fear he cannot win and so want to go in another direction in order to avoid having a "moderate" win.

But since Ahmadinejad has significantly strengthened the presidency, it's hard to say how "independent" his run would be--as in, does he need the Principlists' backing and machinery or can he muster something big on his own?

Still, a good sign that he's pretty weak. If the Supreme Leader signals any wavering, this could spell the end for him, and yet, Khamenei has done anything but up to now.

So, as usual, Iranian politics are opaque and uncertain.

(Thanks: Mike Smith)