The strongman as escape hatch?
Wednesday, February 4, 2009 at 2:16AM FRONT PAGE: "Iraq's Leader Pushes for Election Gains, but Some Fear Iron Hand," by Alissa J. Rubin, New York Times, 26 January 2009.
INTERNATIONAL: "A Calmer Iraq Prepares for Another Try at the Ballot," by Timothy Williams, New York Times, 31 January 2009.
ARTICLE: Maliki Supporters Post Election Gains
Preliminary Results Show Iraq Leaning Toward a Strong Central Government, By Sudarsan Raghavan, Anthony Shadid and Ernesto Londoño, Washington Post, February 3, 2009; Page A01
The first article resurrects an old prediction (actually, one scenario among competing) of mine: that you necessarily end up with a southern strongman--either Shia or Sunni (with obvious preferences from regional kingpins Iran and Saudi Arabia, respectively).
The key analysis:
Mr. Maliki's critics have been rattled by his efforts to control the armed forces more directly, a reminder of the days when Saddam Hussein personally controlled a number of special security forces loyal only to him. Mr. Maliki has reshuffled military commanders and created two handpicked military forces that report primarily to him rather than to the Interior or Defense Ministries.
He has also created tribal councils across the country that are directly linked to his office, which critics fear are stalking horses to extend the reach of his Dawa Party and make gains in the provincial elections . . .
Maliki fears a resurrection of the Sunni-dominated Baath party. Not sure how realistic that is, although I know a rich Saudi family that would gladly bankroll it. So he does what he knows from Iraq's history: he repeats the basic strategy that Saddam took on his rise to power.
No wonder the Kurdistanis are nervous: two powerful regional forces (Iran and Saudi Arabia), neither of which really want a federated Iraq but rather one dominated by co-religionists. Eventually the winner would get around to pulling the KRG back into the unitary fold . . .
Or these are unwarranted fears and Maliki is simply doing what he thinks is prudent to survive.
A big unknown.
But it is interesting to note that the big election last Saturday did not include the KRG. Provincial councils elected all over "Iraq" we are told, except no elections in the KRG, which marches to its own timetable--nor in the contested Kirkuk.
So yeah, Biden's soft partition is here alright, the key question being: How much more happens in the south, or do we see a unified Arab Iraq with an attached unified Kurdish Iraq?
Whatever your bet, Saturday's results seem to indicate that Maliki and the Dawa Party are succeeding.
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