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« As goes China, so goes Asia | Main | Great Powers Reading Group index »
5:10PM

Hugh, Bohannon

Drove back from Chitown this morning and had the oil changed on daughter's car (not really mine anymore, as I am car-less for the first time in many years). Once home I review Chapter 4 (economic realignment) and 5 (diplomatic) because the last time Hewitt and I exchanged emails, I proposed doing 4&5 together.

Well, I get on the tape with him and I realize it's just going to be chapter 4, which is fine by me, because more time means more detailed conversation. So that taping whizzes by as usual and we're looking at taping two hours next week to accommodate conflicting travel skeds the week after next. So that train rolls on probably 3-4 more weeks at this rate after today's taped show (broadcast Wed).

I work out a couple of times (elliptical, bowflex) and then soak in da big tub and finish my catch-up on periodicals.

Then up to do Bohannon. I start on my wireless handset in office, which sometimes can get scratchy late at night, so end up doing last 40 on this antique hardline phone in laundry room. It's one of those where you hold the stem and speak in the mouthpiece and hold the separate ear-piece to your ear. Very back to the future. My only fear was one of our three Siberians appearing and digging up a noisy storm in the catbox we've got in there.

Bohannon can get a bit Dobbs-ian on China and more than a bit confrontational on Iran, where, because I talk about the inevitability of Iran's nuclear capability, I get that old saw about "wanting to give Iran the bomb!" I back him off that bit with some force. People can either be told what they want to hear or I can tell them what I think they need to hear, but if they don't like what I think is the inevitable truth, then recasting me as naive or a peacenik or a collaborator gets to be a bit much. People have this fantasy where Israel bombs conventionally and it's all gone away--this problem. Or we just activate some CIA cells and poof! The theocracy is gone. I simply don't believe in underestimating the Iranians, and magic-cloud solutions [insert magic here!] do not appeal to me (as much as they can clean up a complex PPT slide).

Although I do find quite precious our much-publicized covert program to screw up Iran's enrichment program at Natanz. There's nothing quite as impressive as a covert program that gets mentioned daily in national newspapers. Tehran will never see it coming!

Me? I just get weary of the extreme emotionalism that wells up constantly in this discussion. We transfer a lot of al Qaeda perceptions to Tehran, which I think is a huge tactical error. Again, misunderestimating them--if I may coin a phrase--is not a good idea. But people just lose their heads in public debates in ways I just never encounter within the professional community, and if you don't agree, then you're part of the evil too. That and the postdating of the Sovs and Maoists being these totally reasonable and rational types that we always trusted on nukes. Please. I'm just not willing to drive off strategic cliffs out of the fear that someday somebody pops one off. To me, that is simply inevitable. More interesting is the response, which, of course, too many assume equals total insanity all over America--especially if anything happens here. I just don't buy that. Doesn't mean I don't think we take large amounts of precautions. Been arguing that for many years. It just means I don't make our entire grand strategy revolve around this one bogeyman, because I find that childish and unstrategic.

Worse, I don't mind saying that in public.

Anyway, despite a few flare-ups, the overall interview went really well, and some emotion is a good thing--adding some theater. So happy to get the exposure (both tonight for an hour--without any calls [his call] and tomorrow morning [we tape quick 5-min interview right after show for his morning show]). Bohannon keeps you on your toes, and that's good this late at night.

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