Fake states in the Stans

ARTICLE: Islamic law to be imposed in parts of Pakistan, AP, February 16, 2009

Realistic bargaining? Yes.

Giving in to civilizational apartheid? Definitely.

The problem here is that there is an unrealized nation that lies between fake states Afghanistan and Pakistan called the Pashtun people. Islamabad will be tempted to do the usual and cut their own "live and let live" deal with the Pashtun on their side of the Durand Line (drawn by Brits, natch), and Obama will be tempted to do the same on the Afghanistan side of the line.

Will that solve our perceived problem (i.e., al Qaeda operating out of there with the Taliban's protection)? Probably not.

Our conversation continues ...

Comments

[Lexington Green]

Drawn by the Brits and Russians, actually. They wanted to create a buffer state and call off their mutual encroachments so they did not get into a war over some Godforsaken patch of the Hindu Kush.

All the European imperialists were doing that sort of thing all over the place in the late 19th Century.

The Pashtuns have this problem. They are in the way of every conqueror who comes through that area, on the way to something more valuable than the rockpile they call home. But they are too ornery to get together and be organized enough to keep anyone out. But then they are too ornery to give up once the foreigners get in there. Too bad they couldn't organize themselves better, like the Swiss, and repel the conquerors at the border. But no. Fairly easy to get in there, damned difficult to get back out in one piece.

No army ever has a good time in Afghanistan.

What next for the Pashtuns? Hard to make a state for them. The Pakistanis have nukes now, and will be unlikely to want to redraw the Durand line. Still, they would be better off if they were rid of the FATA -- which is a misnomer for a place that has never been "administered" by anybody, ever.

[Louis Heberlein]

I agree with Mr. Green's comments. The earlier 'Cold War' struggle between colonial England and new-guy Russia was just another stage of GPs struggles for influence on, and access to an area that might someday again have 'Silk Road' significance.

The more recent Russian Cold War move into Afghanistan, and our Charlie Wilson War reaction was then another cycle. In this case it set the stage and need for Taliban to cope with tribal struggles that followed. But it was oil $ and a Saudi decision to export its extremists to Afghanistan that made that country the host for a global terror effort.

Many of those terrorists and their extreme tribal allies are now dead. The Pashtun and some Taliban leader replacements can claim victory by being given authority to implement wise versions of sharia in their buffer areas.

It will require wisdom from history by India, Pakistan, Iran and Russia to achieve moderate stability in these areas.

Toward the end of WWII, moderate and modern Vietnamese leaders who had helped us against Japan wanted US support for their efforts to escape domination by China or France. We didn't help and eventually got into a long, painful, and distracting struggle. Then Vietnam took on China to protect its borders. Today Vietnam is moving into a New Core economic status, with a civil society.

Everything old seems new again. ;-)

[Rosa]

Increased sovereignty in the region has come in the form of an islamic state. Where Sharia law is enforced by groups credited with terrorist attacks. Combine this with an increase in cross-boarder raids by the Taliban in Afghanistan and the situation looks less like a new birth of freedom for the Pashtun people, and more like a power grab orchestrated by Islamic-extremists in an attempt to expand their area of influence, and further their ideology.

[stuart abrams]

Are there any lessons to be drawn from Iraqi Kurdistan? The Kurds are another people like the Pashtun who are victims of the British penchant for drawing lines that benefited no one except themselves. Yet, Iraqi Kurdistan seems to be moving towards some level of stability and connectedness, which could provide some basis for a regional approach to the problems of the Kurds - even without redrawing national boundaries. Could we accomplish something like that for the Pashtun?