Bashar continues to surprise

MIDDLE EAST AND AFRICA: "Syria: Has it won? Under its surprisingly durable leader, Syria has stubbornly nudged its way back into the heart of regional diplomacy. It can no longer be ignored," The Economist, 28 November 2009.

I had real hopes for Bashar Assad when he appeared--you know, the usual fantasies about the Western-educated, "scientific" son. That was nine years ago.

Then he disappeared into the Byzantine labyrinth that is Syrian politics (with the whole Hariri assassination mucking things up mightily--on purpose, one assumes), and you realized that he had lotsa ducks to get in order before he'd be able to make any moves of note.

Well, that time seems fast approaching.

First, Syria's GDP, foreign trade and private-sector loans have all doubled in the past four years:

For decades Damascus looked as dour as Bucharest under communist rule. Now it pulses with life. New cars throng its streets. Fancy boutique hotels, bars and fully booked restaurants pack its rapidly gentrifying older quarters, while middle-class suburbs, replete with shopping malls and fast-food outlets, spread into the surrounding hills.

And yeah, I do see this as a positive outgrowth of Bush-Cheney's big bang on Iraq--most definitely, to include Turkey's recent connecting ambition throughout the region (their strategic paranoia put to great use).

Trade with Iraq is "surging" (nice term) and the EU stepped up last month to sign a long-delayed association agreement. Nice.

The key figure under Bashar regarding all this liberalization? Deputy prime minister Abdullah Dardari.

Of course, the piece ends with the usual stuff about how all the easy reforms have been pursued and now we get to the hard stuff. Fine and dandy. Best conversation about Syria in a very long time.

Has Syria given in on any pressure regarding its foreign policy? Not really, despite our attempts and Israel's.

But the external connectivity as the primary driver in the economic resurgence is indisputable. Bush-Cheney put Assad on the list, and his clever response was to seek expanded economic connectivity so as to win over his population and as many external sponsors as possible.

And it worked.