Yemen is next

BRIEF: Al-Qaida in Yemen: Target Airports/Airplanes With Small Explosives, NEFA, October 29, 2009

On almost any case, as usual, you're going to find tracing-back evidence that says, "This loose network of inspiration/cooperation/coordination goes back to some deep Gap state."

With 9/11, that was clearly Afghanistan. Going forward, the inspirational center shifted to NW Pakistan, but operationally, a certain amount of organizational capacity shifted back toward the Gulf, nearer the truly desired target of Saudi Arabia. Yemen, right next door and a longtime near/actual failing state, is not a surprising pick. Al Qaeda has roots there that go back quite a bit. Under the right conditions, we could be having a similar conversation about Somalia, but it's telling that when the U.S. forces aided Ethiopian forces going into Somalia in January 2007 (what I wrote about in "The Americans Have Landed") to drive out the AQ elements and foreign fighters, virtually all who escaped sought refuge in Yemen, where AQAP (Al Qaeda Arabian Peninsula) continues to evolve.

Given the already aggressive bombing campaign pursued by the Saudis a while back (along the border, as I remember, but please correct me if I underestimate), a reasonable scenario to expect might be the US pushing/aiding the Saudis in some sort of crackdown effort there. How likely is that? No idea, since the Saudis do as they please. This particular event probably isn't enough to create the impetus for a significant intervention, but it will likely lead to a bigger effort by US special forces in that area, in conjunction with the Saudis.

Point of the post? Under the right scenario, Yemen is next. Again, not a surprise as many experts have been talking this possibility up for a while, along with Somalia.

My particular point? AQ can almost always, if they really try, trigger some sort of US military response against the sponsoring-location-of-note. Pull the right future attack, or just keep up the appropriate drum beat of small attacks, and this conversation will expand.

(Thanks: MICHAEL S. SMITH II)

Comments

[Ross Herda]

Tom - like you mentioned in Great Powers, the US set up shop in Djbouti several years...geographically between Somalia and Yemen...I'd like to know what was known then that we are just really starting to learn more about now. Beyond the on-going US presence in countries worldwide, will we see more of this in the future, the US Military (e.g. SOCOM) entering countries in advance of AQ to head off the spread of their "cancer" or stop it before it gets to Stage III?

[large]

Basically, "International Wack a Mole" . . .

[Tom Barnett]

Yes and yes.

I don't mind whack a mole with SOF. Doesn't cost much and it isn't messy in political terms (secretly, everyone is happy even if they bitch). I don't think we can do major intervention whack-a-mole, so choices there need to be focused for max demonstration effect, realizing we have a capacity load limit, amply proven in Iraq and Afghanistan.

But yes, eventually, as those two wind down, we will be tempted by events to slot in a next-stage effort. That was the essential point of my map, letting you know what areas were in play and which were not.

Do I expect this thing shifts more SW (Gulf, Horn) than NE (Central Asia)?

Yes. But we're talking years and years of events.

[Ted O'Connor]

Getting in "ahead" of AQ is the difficult part. If we force our way in ahead of an identifiable threat then we stir up the nationalists in that place and we can end up creating a base of support for AQ that did not exist. In the 50's we supported some really bad governments because they were anti-communist. Some dictators crushed the communists and everyone else they didn't like and we gave them a thumbs up. We are still hated by many people because of our support of these evil regimes. "Whack-a-mole" is what it will be....unless we stir up local resentment and end up fighting the locals. See British Army in Northern Ireland.

[stuart abrams]

An encouraging thought: Afghanistan is still the only instance of a government being directly controlled by, or at least highly influenced by, al Qaeda. From what I read about Yemen, the authorities there are not particularly sympathetic to al Qaeda or anti-American; they are just weak, decentralized and underfunded. This suggests to me that the Iraq/Afghanistan model of invade, overthrow the government, then occupy and fight off insurgents, will not be the model to follow. Rather, the goal should be identifying the locals who are likely friends, supporting them, and making targeted strikes against the real bad guys. Future wars could be drones plus lots of sys admin.

[Michael S. Smith II]

Stuart:

I can think of another big government that's been "highly influenced" by, albeit by no means directly controlled by al Qaida: Ours. (I’ll take profligate “security” expenditures in an ostensible effort to spend our way to victory for $500, Alex.)

Three other countries which come to mind in terms of more direct influence asserted over their governments by al Qaida during the past two decades:

SomaliaSudanPakistan

In terms of your position on how Yemen should be dealt with, I couldn’t agree more — there’s zero reason for us to start transposing the model employed in the instances of Iraq or Afghanistan onto our thinking about how to effect positive outcomes in Yemen. The government there can be bought for a song. Notice we dumped billions into Musharraf’s coffers after 9/11, and received very little in return. Conversely, in Yemen, with the infusion of a little more than $60 million in recent months, we were able to locate and kill HVTs like Awlaki, the cleric believed by many analysts to have inspired both the events at Fort Hood and the Xmas Day incident in Detroit. Throw $250 million at the Yemeni government tomorrow and we’d probably have the heads of just about every single member of al Qaida who is hiding out there, and planning attacks on Western nations, shipped to us in diplomatic pouches before Easter. Further, the topography of Yemen, particularly its southern areas where you’ll likely find most AQ members camped out, presents significant encumbrances for any boots-on-the-ground types of missions to flush out targets. With a destroyer positioned far enough off the coast to avoid another Cole-type attack, drones, cruise missiles (just a few), some surface-to-air missiles quietly brought into the country, a handful of specops teams and spewks, Seals monitoring efforts of anyone trying to flee by sea, contractors positioned in key places with plenty of hardware at their disposals and licenses to shoot first and ask questions later (paid for, of course, by the Yemeni government so our hands remain clean), and some covert assists from Oman and Saudi (who can help capture anyone trying to flee by land and track anyone fleeing by air), you could take down the entire crew of VERY DANGEROUS misfits hiding in Yemen in no time. … The only really hard part will be mustering the political will in Washington to do just that.