Watching Iran

The continuing power of the street protests remains impressive.

Of course, we can expect the regime to continue going the extra mile in repression tactics, sensing--correctly--that if it does not that things can quickly unravel.

Would I like a more forceful expression from Obama on this? Yes.

I don't see much danger in negotiations as a result, because the worse this gets, the more likely it is (as it has always been, in my opinion) that such efforts will go nowhere and achieve nothing.

So why not turn up the rhetorical pressure and keep global attention high?

Comments

[joe Michels]

Tom, fantastic questions. I don't understand the Obama administration policy of this issue whatsoever. I think his is voting present.

[Brian B]

Turning up the rhetorical pressure has its pros and cons. The pros of turning up rhetorical pressure provides a boost to the opposition in that the US supports their cause to instill stronger, more legitimate democratic institutions in Iran. US rhetorical pressure might also move the Iranian government to make consessions to the opposition in an effort to reinforce the governments legitimacy. However, US rhetorical pressure can also backfire. By the US saying that it "supports" the opposition, what does "support" mean. To heated rhetoric puts the US in the spotlight as the purveyor of the opposition movement. There is certainly no direct measure of trust within Iranian society of the West, especially the US. The Iranian government could, to a larger extent then they are now, direct propoganda towards the opposition labeling them as stooges of the US. This might cause some voluntary participants in the opposition movement to question why they are participating and whether or not they want to be a part of something directed by the US. It's a fine line. The best thing the US can do is "acknowledge" the opposition movement and publically tell stories about members of the opposition who died while fighting for democratic priciples and to save their fellow citizens from the repression of the Iranian government.

[Ross Herda]

I think increasing international pressure and attention to Iran and the protests certainly wouldn't hurt. But given their behavior over the last 20 years, I don't believe it will make them make any drastic changes in their decisions. As Robert Baer indicated in his book The Devil We Know, Iran has the patience to weather this storm...they are looking ahead to the long-term achievement of their goals. The IC can't get them to budge on their nuclear program, it's going to take a lot more in regards to more recent events.

We will probably see (or not see) a major increase of involvement by Iran's Revolutionary Guards in squashing the protests in the days and weeks ahead. The Iranian leadership were part of the 1979 revolution against the Shah goverment...now they are the hot seat and won't allow another "Revolution" even though they are treating the protestors the same way they themselves were dealt with 30 years ago!

[joe Michels]

Brian,

I would be happy with words like, "This administration supports liberty for all peoples of the world; we support self determination; we support woman's rights and freedom for people to practice religion of their choice."

There is so much to say without having to say that we support the opposition. Maybe I missed that speech from Obama.

[Patrick O'Connor]

The President reiterated today what he said in Oslo:

"The United States joins with the international community in strongly condemning the violent and unjust suppression of innocent Iranian citizens, which has apparently resulted in detentions, injuries, and even death.

For months, the Iranian people have sought nothing more than to exercise their universal rights. Each time they have done so, they have been met with the iron fist of brutality, even on solemn occasions and holy days. And each time that has happened, the world has watched with deep admiration for the courage and the conviction of the Iranian people who are part of Iran’s great and enduring civilization.

What’s taking place within Iran is not about the United States or any other country. It’s about the Iranian people and their aspirations for justice and a better life for themselves. And the decision of Iran’s leaders to govern through fear and tyranny will not succeed in making those aspirations go away.

As I said in Oslo, it’s telling when governments fear the aspirations of their own people more than the power of any other nation. Along with all free nations, the United States stands with those who seek their universal rights. We call upon the Iranian government to abide by the international obligations that it has to respect the rights of its own people.

We call for the immediate release of all who have been unjustly detained within Iran. We will continue to bear witness to the extraordinary events that are taking place there. And I’m confident that history will be on the side of those who seek justice."

[Andrew in DC]

Patrick - Good words.

Personally, I'd love to see it backed up with some effort to enable Iranian connectivity. The grass roots efforts in June to keep proxy servers and the like available for the opposition to retain its communication lines was great but relied a lot on the interest, skills and material of the rest of the world. An organized cyber-support (as opposed to cyber-attack) from NSA and/or other government agencies, even quietly, would be a nice token gesture. Sort of like VOA for the internet.